Amaxabiso okuThuthwa kwempahla eTshayina neFransi ngoMatshi 2026:
Oko Asixelelwa Ngamanani
intshayelelo
Ukuba uthumela izinto ukusuka eTshayina ukuya eFransi ngoMatshi 2026, ujongene nenye yeemarike zempahla ezinzima kakhulu kwixesha elide. Amaxabiso awazange ehle aye kumanqanaba aphantsi awayekuwo ngaphambi kobhubhane, kodwa awazange anyuke aye kumanqanaba aphezulu awayekuwo ngexesha lengxaki ngo-2021 nango-2022. Endaweni yoko, imakethi ibambeke kwindawo embi ngenxa yokubuyela kwemfuno emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar, ijikeleza iCape of Good Hope ukuze iphephe uLwandle oluBomvu, umthamo weenqanawa ezakhiweyo ngenxa yeminyaka yokwakha emitsha, kunye nokubuya okuzolileyo kodwa okuzinzileyo kokungaqiniseki kwezopolitiko ezijikeleze iStrait of Hormuz.
Eli nqaku lichaza ngokweenkcukacha ukuba amaxabiso empahla esuka eTshayina ukuya eFransi aya kuba njani ngoMatshi 2026, indlela ngendlela nendlela nendlela ngendlela. Sithetha ngempahla yolwandle yokuthunyelwa kwe-FCL kunye ne-LCL, kunye nokukhetha ngenqwelo moya, uloliwe, kunye noololiwe ngokukhawuleza. Sikwajonga nehlabathi leentlawulo ezongezelelweyo, sichaze iimpembelelo zomfanekiso omkhulu ezichaphazela amaxabiso, kwaye sikunike iingcebiso eziluncedo zokwenza izigqibo zokuthunyelwa ezingcono ngoku. Olu lwazi kufuneka lukunike umfanekiso ocacileyo wendawo imakethi ekhoyo ngoku, nokuba ungumphathi we-sourcing eParis, umthengisi we-e-commerce othumela izinto ezivela eShenzhen, okanye umthengisi wempahla ojonga umxube wakho wenkampani.
Ukusukela phakathi kuMatshi 2026, yonke idatha yamaxabiso kweli nqaku ivela kwiindices zemarike ezifumaneka esidlangalaleni, ezifana neShanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), izibhengezo zentlawulo eyongezelelweyo yabathwali, kunye namaqonga ohlalutyo lwempahla yomntu wesithathu. Iimeko zemarike zitshintsha ngokukhawuleza, ngoko ke kufuneka uhlale ujongana nomthumeli okanye umthwali wakho ukuqinisekisa ukuba amaxabiso achanekile phambi kokuba ubhukishe.
Umfanekiso weMarike kaMatshi 2026: Uthambile Kodwa Uvuselela
Umgca wezorhwebo phakathi kwe-Asia neYurophu wawunezithuthi ezimbalwa kakhulu kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zika-2026. Ngexesha leeholide zoNyaka oMtsha weLunar, iifektri eTshayina zavala, nto leyo eyanciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Kwangaxeshanye, imfuno yokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe evela eYurophu yahlala iphantsi kuba uqoqosho kwi-Eurozone lusabuthathaka. NgoFebruwari 2026, iShanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) yayimalunga namanqaku ali-1,284, apho ukufundwa kwamanani kwaqala kwi-1,251 ukuya kwi-1,333. Oku kukude kakhulu ukusuka kukufundwa kwama-5,000 nangaphezulu okwakuqhelekile ngexesha lokuphazamiseka okunxulumene nobhubhane, kodwa kukwangaphezulu kakhulu kumanqanaba angaphantsi kwe-1,000 awayeqhelekile ngaphambi kowama-2020.
UMatshi uzise utshintsho olukhulu. Ekuqaleni kukaMatshi, izibalo ze-SCFI zeveki nganye zibonise ukunyuka okungaphezulu kwe-6% njengoko iinkampani zaseTshayina ziqale ukwenza izinto kwakhona kwaye ukusilela kwee-odolo zokuthumela kwamanye amazwe kwaqala ukuphela. Oku kwanda kwemithwalo emva kweeholide yindlela yexesha lonyaka, kodwa ngo-2026 kunamandla kunesiqhelo ngenxa yezizathu zesakhiwo: iinqanawa zisathunyelwa kwenye indawo ejikeleze iCape of Good Hope, eyongeza iintsuku ezili-10 ukuya kwezili-14 kumaxesha aqhelekileyo okuhamba eSuez Canal; iinkampani ezinkulu zikhupha amandla ngokukhetha, nto leyo egcine ukuhanjiswa okusebenzayo kuphantsi; kwaye iintlawulo ezintsha zongezwe kwiindleko ezipheleleyo nangona amaxabiso esiseko esephantsi.
ILe Havre isesesizibuko esiphambili sendlela ephakathi kweTshayina neFransi. Iphatha uninzi lwezithuthi ezikwiikhonteyina ezivela eTshayina. IMarseille lukhetho lwesibini, ngakumbi kwiimveliso eziya kumazantsi eFransi nakwimimandla emikhulu yeMeditera. Ekuqaleni kuka-2026, omabini la mazibuko ayenezithuthi eziqhubekayo, nangona iLe Havre ibone ezinye iinqanawa zihlala ixesha elide kwizibuko ngenxa yokuxinana kweenqanawa, nto leyo ebangela ukuxinana okuncinci kwiindawo zokumisa iinqanawa.
Kubalulekile nokucinga ngomfanekiso obanzi. Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe eTshayina kuqhubekile nokusuka eMelika ngenxa yerhafu ephezulu. Umzekelo, imithwalo yempahla esuka eAsia ukuya eYurophu kulindeleke ukuba yande ngamanani aphindwe kabini minyaka le ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2025 ukuya kutsho ngo-2026. IFrance, iJamani, kunye neNetherlands zezona marike ziphambili zokungenisa impahla eYurophu ezithatha olu rhwebo luhlengahlengisiweyo. Oku kunceda ukugcina imithwalo yempahla phakathi kweTshayina neYurophu izinzile nangona imfuno yexesha elifutshane itshintsha.
Amaxabiso okuThuthwa kwempahla ngoku: Indlela ngeNdlela
Isishwankathelo ngokweNdlela yoThumelo
Ngaphambi kokuba singene kwiinkcukacha ze-FCL, nantsi ingqwalasela ngokubanzi kuzo zonke iindlela zokuthumela iimpahla phakathi kweTshayina neFransi ukusukela ngoMatshi 2026. Zonke iirhafu ezibonisiweyo ziqikelelo oluqikelelweyo lwemali eza kuhlawulwa yimarike. Zinokutshintsha kakhulu ngokuxhomekeke kuhlobo lomthwalo, indawo yokwenyani yemvelaphi, ubungakanani bokuthunyelwa, kunye nobudlelwane phakathi kwabathwali.
| Indlela yokuhambisa | Est. Iindleko | Ixesha lokuhamba | Eyona ilungiselelwe | Amazibuko Angundoqo |
| Ulwandle FCL | $1,215–$2,365 (20/40GP) | Iintsuku eziyi-25-35 | Umthwalo omkhulu / omkhulu | Shanghai → Le Havre |
| Ulwandle LCL | $3.65/cbm (indawo) | Iintsuku eziyi-28-38 | Incinci (<15 CBM) | Ningbo → Le Havre |
| Uloyiko lomoya | $3.65–5.20/kg | Iintsuku eziyi-5-7 | Ungxamisekileyo / ixabiso eliphezulu | I-PVG/I-CAN → I-CDG |
| Imithwalo kaloliwe | $2,000–$4,000/cot. | Iintsuku eziyi-18-22 | Ixabiso eliphakathi, ixesha elinovakalelo | Yiwu/Chongqing → Lyon |
| Express Courier | Ngokobunzima/ipasela | Iintsuku eziyi-3-5 | Iipasela ezincinci ze-B2C | Imvelaphi emininzi |
Itheyibhile 1: Isishwankathelo seNdlela yokuThunyelwa kweShishini eTshayina ukuya eFransi, ngoMatshi 2026
I-FCL Ocean Freight: Iinkcukacha zeNqanaba leNdlela
Kwabathumeli abaneempahla eziphakathi ukuya kwezinkulu, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Full Container Load (FCL) kuseyeyona ndlela ixhaphakileyo yokuthumela iimpahla phakathi kweTshayina neFransi. Amaxabiso ngoMatshi 2026 ehle nge-4 ukuya kwi-10 ekhulwini ukusuka ngoFebruwari. Oku kungenxa yokuba imfuno iphantsi eYurophu emva kweeholide, nokuba imveliso iqala kwakhona emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar, obuyisela inani leempahla ezivela kumazibuko aseTshayina. Kule nyanga, eyona nto ibalulekileyo malunga nendlela kukuba phantse wonke umntu uyayiphepha iSuez Canal, eyongeza ixesha kunye nemali eninzi kuzo zonke iinqanawa eziya entshona.
| Umzila | Ikhonkco | Ireyithi (USD) | Utshintsho lweMoM | amaNqaku |
| Shanghai → Le Havre | 20GP | $ 1,215- $ 1,485 | -4% ukuya -7% | NgeCape of Good Hope |
| Shanghai → Le Havre | 40GP | $ 1,935- $ 2,365 | -5% ukuya -10% | Intlawulo eyongezelelweyo ye-CSU iyasebenza |
| Shenzhen → Le Havre | 40GP | $ 1,950- $ 2,400 | -4% ukuya -8% | Imvelaphi yaseMzantsi China |
| Ningbo → Marseille | 40GP | $ 1,900- $ 2,300 | -6% | Izibuko eliphakathi elinye |
| Guangzhou → Le Havre | 40GP | $ 1,980- $ 2,420 | -5% | Ukwehla kwemfuno emva kwe-LNY |
Itheyibhile 2: Ububanzi beeRati zeFCL, eTshayina ukuya eFransi (Iindlela eziphambili), ngoMatshi 2026
La maxabiso agubungela kuphela iindleko zokuthunyelwa kwempahla. Awagubungeli iindleko zezinto ezinje ngokuthutha impahla ngaphakathi, ukususwa kwempahla ngaphandle, okanye iindleko zokuphatha izibuko ezivela eTshayina, okanye iindleko zokuya eLe Havre okanye eMarseille, okanye iindleko ezongezelelweyo ezidweliswe kwiCandelo 3. Xa iindleko zokufaka yonke into ziqikelelwe, ixabiso lokwenyani le-invoyisi ngesikhongozeli ngasinye lidla ngokuba ngaphezulu ngama-25 ukuya kuma-40 ekhulwini kunexabiso lokuthutha impahla elisisiseko. Xa abathumeli beceba kuphela amaxabiso asisiseko, banokumangaliswa xa ityala lokugqibela lifika.
I-LCL: Ixabiso Eliphezulu Elifanele Ukuqonda
NgoMatshi 2026, ixabiso le-Less-than-Container-Load (LCL) latshintsha ngeendlela ezingaqhelekanga. Izinga lemarike elibonakalayo limalunga ne-$3.65 nge-cubic meter, nto leyo enyuke kakhulu ngaphezu kwama-314 ekhulwini ukusuka kwixabiso le-LCL likaFebruwari kule ndlela. Oku kunyuka kungenxa yokukhawuleza ukuhlanganisa emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar. Umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle wawuphantse ube zero ngexesha leeholide, kodwa wanda kakhulu kwiiveki zokuqala zikaMatshi. Abathengisi bempahla eShenzhen naseShanghai abalawula iindawo zokudibanisa ngoku bajongene nemfuno enkulu yendawo yesikhongozeli esabelwana ngaso ngexesha elifutshane.
Kwimithwalo engaphantsi kwe-13 ukuya kwi-15 CBM, i-LCL idla ngokuba lolona khetho lulungileyo. Xa ubungakanani bemithwalo busondela okanye bungaphezulu kwelo nqanaba, uqoqosho lwe-FCL ludla ngokuba ngcono ngokwexabiso le-CBM nganye. Ukhuseleko olongezelelweyo lwesikhongozeli esivaliweyo luyenza ibe luncedo ngakumbi. Abathumeli abasebenzisa i-LCL eFransi ngoku kufuneka baqaphele ukuba kunokubakho ukulibaziseka ekuhlanganisweni ngeli xesha. Oku kungenxa yokuba iindawo zokudibanisa izibuko zinokuxinana ngexesha lokunyuka kweholide emva kweholide, okunokongeza iintsuku ezi-3 ukuya kwezi-5 kwiifestile zesiqhelo ze-LCL.
Uthutho Lomoya: Ukunciphisa Amaxabiso, Ukungaqiniseki Kwesakhiwo Kusengaphambili
NgoMatshi 2026, iindleko zokuthutha ngenqwelo moya ezivela eTshayina ukuya eFransi zehla kakhulu. Amaxabiso okuthunyelwa okukhulu okungaphezulu kwe-1,000 kg amalunga ne-$3.65 ngekhilogram, nto leyo ehla kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa namaxabiso aphezulu abonwe ngoFebruwari. Iindlela eziphambili ziya kwizikhululo zeenqwelo-moya zaseCharles de Gaulle (CDG) naseLyon Saint-Exupery (LYS). Zisuka eShanghai Pudong (PVG), eGuangzhou Baiyun (CAN), naseHong Kong (HKG). Inqwelo-moya iseyeyona ndlela ilungileyo yokuthumela izinto ze-elektroniki, izinto zefashoni ezibizayo, izinto zokuthambisa, kunye nezixhobo zonyango xa ixesha lokuthengisa libaluleke ngaphezu kweendleko zokuthumela.
Kodwa utshintsho olukhulu luza kwishishini lempahla yomoya. I-European Union ithe ifuna ukuphelisa ukukhululwa okuncinci kokungeniswa kwempahla enexabiso eliphantsi, mhlawumbi kwangoko nje ngo-2026. Kwixesha elidlulileyo, olu kukhululwa luvumele iimpahla ezininzi ze-e-commerce ze-B2C ezingabizi kakhulu ukuba zibhabhe zisuka eTshayina ziye kubathengi baseYurophu ngaphandle kokuhlawula imirhumo eqhelekileyo yerhafu. Ukuba ukukhululwa kususiwe okanye kuncitshiswe kakhulu, amaqonga asebenzise oku anokubona iindleko zawo zinyuka kakhulu. Oku kunokukhokelela ekuncipheni kokuthunyelwa kwempahla yomoya kwiindlela zaseTshayina-Yurophu kunye namaxabiso aphantsi kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2026.
Uthutho lweZithuthi: Ukhetho oluPhakathi olungaxatyiswanga
Ukuthutha ngololiwe phezu kwebhulorho yomhlaba phakathi kweTshayina neYurophu kuseyindlela elungileyo kubathumeli abaninzi, kodwa abaneleyo kubo abayisebenzisayo. Ukuthutha ngololiwe yindawo entle ephakathi phakathi kwesantya somoya kunye nexabiso lolwandle. Kuthatha umyinge weentsuku ezili-18 ukuya kwezingama-22 ukufika apho kwaye kubiza phakathi kwe-$2,000 kunye ne-$4,000 ngexabiso elilinganayo lesikhongozeli. Oololiwe basuka kwizixeko ezinkulu zangaphakathi ezifana neYiwu, iChongqing, kunye neXi'an, bahamba ngeAsia eseMbindini kunye neMpuma Yurophu, baze bafike kwizikhululo ezikufutshane neLyon kunye neParis. Ukuthutha ngololiwe kufuneka kuqwalaselwe nzulu kwimeko yangoku yokutshintsha indlela eKapa, xa amaxesha okuthutha ngomkhombe elwandle ethathe ixesha elide kakhulu. Oku kuyinyani ngakumbi kwizinto ezifana ne-elektroniki, imfashini, kunye neendawo zoshishino apho isantya kunye neendleko zombini zibalulekile.
Indawo yentlawulo eyongezelelweyo: Yintoni eyongezwayo kwiBhili yakho
Iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo zezinye zezona zizathu ziphambili zokuba amaxabiso okuthutha impahla ahluke kwiindleko zokwenyani kwibhili. UMatshi 2026 ube lixesha elixakekileyo leentlawulo ezongezelelweyo. Abathwali beenqwelo-mafutha bakwazile ukutshintsha iirhafu ezininzi ngaxeshanye ngenxa yokunyuka kwemfuno emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar. Oku kunyuka kweentlawulo ezongezelelweyo yindawo engapheliyo nebiza kakhulu kubathumeli abajonga kuphela amaxabiso asisiseko xa besenza uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwabo.
| Uhlobo lwentlawulo eyongezelelweyo | Umthwali / Umthombo | Imali (USD) | Umhla osebenzeyo |
| Intlawulo eyongezelelweyo yaseCape (CSU) | IHapag-Lloyd | $1,500/TEU | Ukususela nge-3 kaMatshi 2026 |
| Intlawulo yeXesha Eliphakamileyo (PSS) | Abathwali abaninzi | $200–$300/TEU | Matshi–Epreli 2026 |
| I-Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) | Kushishino lonke | $180–$220/TEU | Eqhubekayo |
| Intlawulo eNcinci yeSulphur (LSS) | Kushishino lonke | $80–$120/TEU | Eqhubekayo |
| UkuNgxina kwePort | Khetha abathwali | $150–$250/TEU | Imeko |
Itheyibhile 3: Iintlawulo eziPhambili kwiChina-France Route, ngoMatshi 2026
I-Cape Surcharge mhlawumbi yeyona ndleko intsha ibalulekileyo ngo-2026. I-Hapag-Lloyd yaqala ukuhlawulisa i-CSU ye-$1,500 nge-TEU nganye nge-3 kaMatshi 2026. Le ntlawulo yeyohambo olude olufunekayo ngenxa yokutshintsha indlela ngeCape of Good Hope. Ezinye iinkampani ezinkulu zilungiselele amalungiselelo afanayo, kodwa ziwabiza ngezinto ezahlukeneyo. Ngokwembono yenkampani, iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo kweli candelo ziyaqondakala kuba zigubungela ipetroli eyongezelelweyo, ixesha elide labasebenzi, kunye neendleko eziphezulu zokugcina iinqanawa zisebenza ixesha elide. Nangona kunjalo, kubathumeli abasenokuba babengalindelanga, ezi ntlawulo ezongezelelweyo zisengukunyuka okukhulu kweendleko okuya kuchaphazela uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwabo.
I-invoyisi nganye isenayo i-Bunker Adjustment Factor kunye ne-Low Sulphur Surcharge. Kwiimeko ezininzi, bongeza i-$260 ukuya kwi-$340 kwixabiso elisisiseko lokuthutha impahla kwi-TEU nganye. Oko kuthetha ukuba kwisikhongozeli esingangeenyawo ezingama-40, iindleko zokufika kufuneka zibandakanye i-$520 ukuya kwi-$680 eyongezelelweyo ngokufuduka ngakunye. Abathumeli abathetha ngeekhontrakthi ezihlala unyaka okanye iinyanga ezintandathu kufuneka bacele i-caps ye-fuel surcharge okanye iifomyula ezidityaniswe ne-index endaweni yokwamkela ukuvezwa kwe-open-end surcharge eyenza ixabiso lekhontrakthi lingabi namsebenzi.
Intlawulo yePeak Season eya kuhlawuliswa ngoMatshi ibonisa ukuba abathwali bayazi ukuba imfuno iyanda emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar ibanika ithuba elifutshane lokuhlawulisa ngaphezulu. Ukubuyiselwa kwemfuno okusisiseko kuyinyani, kodwa ukunyuka kwe-SCFI yeveki nganye nge-6% ekuqaleni kukaMatshi kubonisa ukuba ukubuyela kwakhona kuncinci kunokuba kube nzima. Oku kuthetha ukuba amanqanaba e-PSS kufuneka avavanywe kwiingxoxo zesivumelwano xa ubudlelwane bevolumu bunika amandla okuthumela.
Ukuziphatha kweNqanaba lokuQhuba iiMacro Forces kwiQ1 lika-2026
ULwandle Olubomvu kunye neHormuz: Ikhadi Elingaqhelekanga Lezopolitiko
Ingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu, eyaqala ukuchaphazela kakhulu ukuthunyelwa kweenqanawa ngasekupheleni kuka-2023, ayibonakali ngathi iza kusonjululwa ngokupheleleyo ekuqaleni kwekota yesibini ka-2026. Uninzi lwexesha, iinqanawa ezihamba phakathi kweAsia neYurophu zisaphepha iSuez Canal kwaye endaweni yoko zihamba zijikeleze iCape of Good Hope. Oku kongeza malunga neentsuku ezili-10 ukuya kwezili-14 kumaxesha okuhamba kwaye kwenza amaxabiso epetroli kunye nenani leenqanawa ezifunekayo ukugcina umgangatho ofanayo wenkonzo kwindlela nganye yorhwebo uphezulu kakhulu.
Uxinzelelo olujikeleze iStrait of Hormuz ludale indawo yesibini yoxinzelelo lwezopolitiko eyenza kube nzima kwiinkampani ezithwala imithwalo ezikhonza iPersian Gulf kunye noLwandlekazi lwaseIndiya ukukhetha iindlela. Ezinye iinkampani zitshintshe iindlela zeenqanawa zazo okanye zitshintshe indlela ezikhonza ngayo abathengi ngenxa yemiba yokhuseleko kule ndawo. Oku kwenze iindlela eziya eYurophu zagcwala ngakumbi kwaye kongeze ukuxinana okuphakathi kwiindawo zezibuko zaseMantla Yurophu ezifana neLe Havre.
Kwimpahla eya eFransi, oku kuthetha ukuba ixesha lokuhamba ukusuka kumazibuko amakhulu aseTshayina ukuya eLe Havre ngoku liphakathi kweentsuku ezingama-30 ukuya kwezingama-38, xa kuthelekiswa neentsuku ezingama-25 ukuya kwezingama-28 ezazisetyenziswa ziinkonzo zeSuez xa izinto zazizinzile. Abathumeli abangatshintshanga indlela abalungiselela ngayo uluhlu lwabo lwezinto kunye nokubala isitokhwe sabo sokhuseleko ukuze bavumele eli xesha lide lokuhamba banokuphelelwa sisitokhwe, ngakumbi kwizinto zexesha elithile okanye iimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokukhawuleza ezinemijikelo yokuzalisa exineneyo.
Ulawulo Lomthamo Ogqithisileyo Weenqanawa kunye Nomthamo Wokuthwala Izinto
Ishishini lokuthumela iinqanawa lifumene iinqanawa ezininzi ezintsha ngo-2024 nango-2025. Oku kubangele ukuba kubekho umthamo omkhulu wesakhiwo, nto leyo eyeyona nto iphambili yokutshintsha kwamanani ukusukela kwixesha lobhubhane. Nangona kukho ukuphambuka koLwandle oluBomvu okuthatha indawo, ukukhula kweenqwelo-mafutha kuye kwanika ubuninzi kakhulu. Le ndlela isenokuqhubeka ukuya kutsho ngo-2026, xa kucwangciselwe ukuhanjiswa kweenqwelo-mafutha ezintsha. Ubuninzi bokuhanjiswa kweenqwelo-mafutha ezintsha bunokuthi bunciphe ukusuka kumanqanaba ka-2025, kodwa ukukhula kweenqwelo-mafutha ngokubanzi kuya kubeka uxinzelelo oluphantsi kumaxabiso.
Abathwali beenqwelo-moya baye basabela ngokunciphisa ngamandla umthamo osetyenzisiweyo ngokusebenzisa iinqanawa ezingenanto okanye ezirhoxisiweyo, ukucotha komoya ukuze kuncitshiswe isantya kwaye kwandiswe uhambo, kunye nokungasebenzi kakuhle kweenqanawa ezindala. Olu lawulo lucwangcisiweyo lokubonelela yilo nto igcina i-SCFI ingaphazami kwaye endaweni yoko iyigcina ikwindawo ekude. Umyinge we-SCFI kaFebruwari 2026 ungamanqaku ayi-1,284, nto leyo ebonisa le ndlela: abathwali beenqwelo-moya basebenza nzima ukugcina amaxabiso kumanqanaba afanelekileyo kwishishini, nangona ibhalansi esisiseko yokubonelela kunye nemfuno idla ngokuthoba amaxabiso.
I-SCFI Trend: Ukubeka uMatshi kwiMeko
I-SCFI yeyona ndlela ixhaphakileyo yokulinganisa amaxabiso okuthutha iikhonteyina ezivela kwiindawo zokungenisa impahla zaseTshayina. Nabani na othumela impahla ofuna ukwazi ukuba amaxabiso angoku lixesha elifanelekileyo lokuthenga okanye ixesha elifikelelekayo lokuphepha kufuneka azi ukuba uMatshi 2026 uhambelana njani nembali yangaphambili.
| ixesha | I-SCFI (amanqaku aphakathi) | I-Sub-index yaseYurophu | Rate Trend |
| Q4 2024 | ~2,100–2,400 | Phezulu (incopho yoLwandle oluBomvu) | liphakanyiswe |
| Jan 2026 | ~1,300–1,335 | Iphakathi, ithambile | Ukuhla |
| Feb 2026 | 1,251–1,333 (umndilili we-1,284) | Imfuno ethambileyo, ukubonelela ngokugqithisileyo | Izinzile / Iphantsi |
| Matshi 2026 (kwangoko) | +6% i-WoW rebound | Ukubuyiselwa emva kwe-LNY | Ukunyuka ngononophelo |
Itheyibhile 4: Umxholo weMbali ye-SCFI kunye neNdawo ebekwe kuyo ngoMatshi 2026
Ukunyuka kwe-SCFI ngeepesenti ezi-6 ngeveki ekuqaleni kukaMatshi kubaluleke kakhulu, kodwa kufuneka kuthathwe ngetyuwa encinci. Oku kubonisa umkhwa wexesha eliqhelekileyo emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar, kungekhona ukuqina kweemeko zemarike okubangelwa yimfuno enamandla. Imfuno yabathengi baseYurophu, eyona sizathu siphambili sobuninzi bemithwalo kule ndlela yorhwebo, isebuthathaka. Iindleko eziphezulu zamandla, imveliso ephantsi yemizi-mveliso eJamani, kunye nokusetyenziswa ngononophelo kwabathengi eFransi kusenza izinto zibe nzima kuqoqosho lwe-Eurozone. Ngaphandle kokuba ezi zinto zinkulu zitshintsha zibe ngcono, ukunyuka kwe-SCFI ngoMatshi kunokwenzeka ukuba kunyuke kunokuba kukhawulezise kunyuke ixesha elide.
Isikhokelo Esisebenzayo Kwabathumeli NgoMatshi 2026
Kuluncedo kuphela ukuqonda indlela esebenza ngayo imakethi ukuba ikunceda wenze izigqibo ezingcono malunga nendlela yokuqhuba ishishini lakho. Nazi izinto ezibalulekileyo ekufuneka uzicinge xa uthumela impahla usuka eTshayina usiya eFransi okwangoku.
Into yokuqala neyona ibalulekileyo yeqhinga kukuba kuthatha ixesha elingakanani ukubhukisha. Emva kokuqalisa kwakhona kwemveliso yoNyaka oMtsha weLunar, umthamo weenqanawa uphantsi koxinzelelo olukhulu. Abathumeli abalinde ukubhukisha basengozini yokutyhalelwa emva ekuhambeni kamva. Kungcono ukwenza ukubhukisha okuqinisekisiweyo kwiinqanawa zaseTshayina-eFransi kwiintsuku ezili-10 ukuya kwezili-14 ngaphambi komhla wokuhamba obekucetywayo. Kwizinto ezibolayo okanye iimpahla ezifuna ukuhanjiswa ngokukhawuleza, kwanangaphambi kwexesha kungcono. Nokuba kwindawo eqhelekileyo, akukho siqinisekiso sokuba ziyafumaneka ngoku.
Ufanele ucinge ngononophelo malunga nesivumelwano xa kuthelekiswa namaxabiso angacwangciswanga. Okwangoku, amaxabiso angacwangciswanga kwiikhonteyina ze-40GP ukuya eLe Havre aphakathi kwe-$1,935 kunye ne-$2,365. Abathumeli abanomthamo ozinzileyo noqikelelweyo kufuneka bacinge ngokusayina iikhontrakthi zexesha eliphakathi kangangeenyanga ezi-3 ukuya kwezi-6. Oku kuya kubazisa ukuba baza kuhlawula malini, nto leyo ebaluleke ngakumbi ngoku kunokufumana amaxabiso angacwangciswanga aphantsi. Kodwa ezi khontrakthi kufuneka zijongwe ngononophelo ukuze kujongwe umngcipheko wentlawulo eyongezelelweyo, ingakumbi i-Cape Surcharge clauses, enokwenza ukonga okuvela kwixabiso elisezantsi elilungileyo kungabi namsebenzi.
Esinye isixhobo esibalulekileyo ekufuneka siqwalaselwe kwakhona kukukhethwa kwezibuko. Uninzi lwempahla esuka eTshayina ukuya eFransi idlula eLe Havre, nangona kunjalo kwiimpahla eziya eLyon, eMarseille, okanye kumazantsi eFransi ngokubanzi, izibuko laseMeditera laseMarseille linokunciphisa iindleko zothutho lwangaphakathi ngokwaneleyo ukuze lihlawule iindleko eziphezulu zothutho lwaselwandle. Ngenxa yokuxinana okuphakathi eLe Havre okwangoku, iishedyuli zokumisa kunye namaxesha okuhlala zinokutshintsha. Oku kwenza enye indlela yaseMarseille ifanele uhlalutyo olutsha lweendleko kunye neenzuzo, ingakumbi kubangenisi abathenga iimpahla zabo sele bedlula kwiRhone Valley.
Okokugqibela, ukugcina ulwazi ngemirhumo kunye namaphepha kuye kwaba yinxalenye ebalulekileyo yokulawula iindleko ezipheleleyo zomhlaba. IFransi ineerhafu zemirhumo ezihambelana nemigangatho ye-EU kwaye zihlala ziqala kwi-0% ukuya kwi-12%, kuxhomekeke kwikhowudi ye-HS. Kukwakho ne-VAT eqhelekileyo ye-20%. Amashishini e-e-commerce kufuneka anikele ingqalelo kwimithetho yokubhalisa i-VAT kunye ne-IOSS. Isiphelo esinokwenzeka sokukhululwa kwe-EU de minimis sinokuba nefuthe elikhulu kuqoqosho lokungeniswa kweepasele ezincinci kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo. Zonke iimveliso kufuneka zibe neekhowudi ze-HS ezichanekileyo, izibhengezo zemvelaphi ezithi "Yenziwe eTshayina," iileyibhile ze-CE zeendidi zemveliso ezifanelekileyo, ezifana ne-elektroniki kunye neethoyi, kunye namaphepha afanelekileyo okuthobela i-eco phantsi kwe-WEEE kunye ne-RoHS xa isebenza.
Indlela Ukuthunyelwa KweTopway Okunokukunceda Ngayo Uhambe Kule Makethi
Ukuba neqabane elifanelekileyo lezothutho kwenza umahluko omkhulu kwiindleko kunye nokuthembeka kwimarike yempahla ehlala itshintsha, ineentlawulo ezifihlakeleyo, amaxesha amade okuthutha, kunye nemithetho engqongqo. I-Topway Shipping, eseShenzhen, eTshayina, ibingumboneleli oqeqeshiweyo wezisombululo zezothutho ze-e-commerce eziwela imida ukusukela ngo-2010. I-Topway izakhele igama ngokubonelela ngolwazi olucwangcisiweyo, oluvela ekupheleni ukuya ekupheleni kwiindlela zorhwebo zamazwe ngamazwe ezinzima. Iqela labasunguli bayo linamava angaphezu kweminyaka eli-15 kwizothutho zamazwe ngamazwe kunye nokususwa kwempahla.
Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla eTshayina-e-US yeyona nto ingcono kakhulu kwiTopway Shipping. Uthutho, enye yezona ndlela zixakekileyo nezinzima kakhulu emhlabeni. Ulwazi olunzulu olufunyenwe ekulawuleni loo ndlela, oluquka ukuqokelela iimpahla kwiifektri zaseTshayina nakwiindawo zokugcina impahla, ukucoca irhafu yokuthumela impahla kwamanye amazwe, ukuthumela impahla ngaphesheya kolwandle, ukucoca irhafu yeempahla ezifika eFransi, kunye nokuhambisa impahla kwindawo yazo yokugqibela, lunokusetyenziswa ngqo kwikhorido yaseTshayina-eFransi nakwimarike enkulu yaseYurophu. Ukuba ungumthumeli wempahla ofuna iqabane lempahla elinokwenza okungaphezulu nje kokubhukisha ukuthunyelwa kwempahla, imodeli edibeneyo yeTopway igubungela lonke uthotho lwezothutho.
I-Topway inikezela ngeenkonzo zokuthutha ulwandle eziguquguqukayo ezine-full-container-load (FCL) kunye ne-less-than-container-load (LCL) ukusuka kumazibuko abalulekileyo aseTshayina ukuya kwiindlela ezibalulekileyo zaseYurophu ezifana neLe Havre kunye neMarseille kwiinkampani ezithumela iimpahla ezivela eTshayina ukuya eFransi. Kwimarike yangoku, kuluncedo kakhulu ukukwazi ukutshintsha phakathi kwe-FCL kunye ne-LCL ngokusekelwe kutshintsho kumthamo. Oku kungenxa yokuba izinga le-LCL litshintsha ngokukhawuleza ngexesha lokuhlanganiswa koNyaka oMtsha emva kweLunar, kwaye uqoqosho lwemithwalo engaphelelanga luyahluka kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo zemveliso.
Ukongeza ekubhukisheni izikhongozeli, ubuchule beTopway bokugcina iimpahla kwamanye amazwe buvumela abathumeli ukuba bagcine uluhlu lwabo lwempahla lukufutshane nabathengi babo baseFransi okanye baseYurophu. Oku kunciphisa amaxesha okufumana izinto ezifunekayo kwaye kwandisa amaxabiso okugcwalisa ngaphandle kweendleko zokugcina izinto ezinkulu zokhuseleko eTshayina. Olu dibaniso lolawulo lwezinto ezisetyenziswa eTshayina kunye neYurophu. ukugcina Inkxaso igubungela lonke umjikelo wobomi beenkonzo zothutho lwamashishini e-e-commerce andisa imisebenzi yawo enqumla imida ukuya kwi-EU. Akukho namnye umthengisi wempahla onokwenza oku.
Okwahlukanisa iTopway nabanye abameli bezothutho bubuchule besikhungo esinabo iqela layo. KwiTopway, ukuhlelwa kwekhowudi ye-HS ngokuchanekileyo, uxwebhu olupheleleyo lokuthumela ngaphandle, ukujonga intlawulo eyongezelelweyo, kunye nokulawula ubudlelwane nabathwali azizo nje iinkonzo ezongezelelweyo; zisisiseko sendlela yokuphathwa kwempahla nganye. NgoMatshi 2026, xa amaxabiso eCape Surcharge, PSS, kunye ne-LCL enokunyuka kakhulu kubathumeli abangalungiselelanga, olo lwazi lukhokelela ngokukhawuleza kwiindleko eziphantsi kunye nokusebenza okuthambileyo.
isiphelo
NgoMatshi 2026, imakethi yokuthutha impahla iya kubavuza abo bakulungeleyo kwaye ijezise abo bangakulungelanga. Amaxabiso kwikhorido yaseTshayina-eFransi aphantsi kunokuba ayenjalo kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngo-2024, kodwa asengaphezulu kakhulu kunokuba ayenjalo ngaphambi kobhubhane, ingakumbi xa ubandakanya iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo kwixabiso liphela. Imfuno iphinda ibuyele emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar, kodwa mhlawumbi ayizukukhokelela ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso okuhlala ixesha elide okanye okukhulu kuba kukho umthamo omkhulu kwimakethi kwaye imfuno yabathengi baseYurophu ayilunganga. Kwabaninzi abathumeli, eyona ngxaki ibalulekileyo ayikokujonga nje izinga lokuthutha impahla eliphambili, kodwa ikwajongana nobunzima obukhulayo bokutshintsha indlela eKapa, ukunyuka kweentlawulo ezongezelelweyo, ubude bexesha lokuhamba, kunye nemithetho eqinileyo yerhafu ye-EU.
Ucwangciso olusekelwe kwimeko yeyona ndlela ilungileyo yokucwangcisa kule meko. Cwangcisa zombini izinga elizinzileyo nelinyukayo lohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwakho lwempahla. Faka amaxesha okuhamba amade eentsuku ezingama-30 ukuya kuma-38 kwimijikelo yakho yokuzalisa impahla. Yakha unxibelelwano nabathwali kunye nabathumeli abavulelekileyo ngokwenene kwaye abaguquguqukayo kwimisebenzi yabo. Ukuba ubona uthutho njengendima yesicwangciso endaweni yokuba yindawo yeendleko ekufuneka unciphise, imakethi yangoku ikunika amathuba okwenyani okwenza uthungelwano lwakho lokubonelela lube namandla ngakumbi kunokuba abakhuphisana nabo abafuna amaxabiso achanekileyo bengenako.
Idatha yale nqaku ikunika umbono olungileyo wokuba imakethi yokuthutha impahla phakathi kweTshayina neFransi iya kuba njani ngoMatshi 2026. Unesigqibo sokuba wenze ntoni ngazo, kodwa kungcono ukwenza njalo neqabane lezothutho elaziyo zombini idatha kunye nomxholo wokusebenza kwayo.
FAQs
Q: Ingakanani isantya sokuthutha imithwalo yolwandle yeFCL ukusuka eShanghai ukuya eLe Havre ngoMatshi 2026?
A: Ukususela ekuqaleni kukaMatshi 2026, iindleko zokuthumela isitya se-20GP ukusuka eShanghai ukuya eLe Havre ziphakathi kwe-$1,215 kunye ne-$1,485, ngelixa iindleko zokuthumela isitya se-40GP ziphakathi kwe-$1,935 kunye ne-$2,365. La ngamaxabiso asisiseko kuphela okuthumela. Iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo ezifana neCape Surcharge, i-BAF, kunye nerhafu yokuphatha iinqanawa zihlala zongeza i-25 ukuya kwi-40 yepesenti kwixabiso lilonke elihlawuliweyo.
Q: Kutheni amaxesha okuthutha ukusuka eTshayina ukuya eFransi ethatha ixesha elide kunesiqhelo ngoku?
A: Ngenxa yokuba kusekho iingxaki zokhuseleko kuLwandle oluBomvu, uninzi lweenqanawa ezihamba phakathi kweAsia neYurophu ngoku zihamba zijikeleza iCape of Good Hope endaweni yeSuez Canal. Oku kongeza iintsuku ezili-10 ukuya kwezili-14 kumaxesha aqhelekileyo okuhamba, oko kuthetha ukuba ngoku kuthatha phakathi kweentsuku ezingama-30 ukuya kwezingama-38 ukuba iimpahla zifike zivela kumazibuko aseTshayina ukuya eLe Havre.
Q: Ngaba i-LCL okanye i-FCL zibiza kancinci kwiimpahla ezincinci eziya eFransi ngoMatshi 2026?
A: Kwimithwalo engaphantsi kwe-13 ukuya kwi-15 CBM, i-LCL idla ngokuba lolona khetho lungcono. Nangona kunjalo, amaxabiso e-spot LCL anyuke kakhulu ekuqaleni kukaMatshi ngenxa yemfuno yokuhlanganiswa emva koNyaka oMtsha weLunar. Ukuba uthumela into enobunzima obuphantse bube yi-15 CBM, licebo elihle ukuthetha nomntu othumela impahla yakho ngazo zombini ezi zinto. Ngokuxhomekeke kwishedyuli kunye nendlela, i-FCL isenokungabizi kakhulu.
Q: Zeziphi iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo ekufuneka ndizihlawulele ngaphaya kwexabiso lokuthutha impahla elwandle?
A: Iintlawulo ezingaphezulu kwindlela ephakathi kweChina neFrance ngoMatshi 2026 yiCape Surcharge, enokuba phezulu ukuya kwi-$1,500 nge-TEU nganye, iBunker Adjustment Factor, ebiza i-$180 ukuya kwi-$220 nge-TEU nganye, iLow Sulphur Surcharge, ebiza i-$80 ukuya kwi-$120 nge-TEU nganye, kunye nePeak Season Surcharge, ebiza i-$200 ukuya kwi-$300 nge-TEU nganye kwabanye abathwali. Soloko ucela ikowuteshini equka yonke into, hayi nje ireyithi esisiseko.
Q: Zeziphi iirhafu zerhafu ezisebenzayo xa kungeniswa iimpahla ezivela eTshayina eFransi?
A: IFransi ihlawulisa iirhafu zokungenisa izinto ezisemgangathweni we-EU eziqala kwi-0% ukuya kwi-12% ngokuxhomekeke kwikhowudi ye-HS yemveliso, kunye ne-VAT eqhelekileyo ye-20%. Abathengisi kwiindawo zorhwebo lwe-e-commerce banokufuna ukubhalisela i-VAT okanye i-IOSS. Izinto ze-elektroniki kunye nezinye izinto kufuneka zibe neempawu ze-CE kwaye zilandele imithetho ebekwe yi-WEEE kunye ne-RoHS.
