IShayina+1: Ingabe Abathengi baseJalimane Bashintsha Amaketanga Okuphakelwa Ngempela?
Isingeniso
I-"China+1" ibilokhu ikhona isikhathi eside ngokwanele kangangokuthi ingaba yinto evamile. Leli isu elikhulunywa kakhulu ngalo emabhodini kanye nemibiko yokubonisana kangangokuthi ukusetshenziswa kwalo kwangempela ngezinye izikhathi kuyalahleka engxoxweni. Iphuzu eliyinhloko lilula: amabhizinisi kufanele engeze okungenani elinye izwe elilodwa ochungechungeni lwawo lokunikezela ukuze angathembeli kakhulu ochungechungeni olulodwa lokunikezela olusekelwe eShayina. Lokho okwakuyicebo lokusekela manje sekuyinto ebalulekile emenyezelwe ngenxa yempi yezohwebo phakathi kwe-US neShayina, ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, kanye nokungezwani okuqhubekayo kwezepolitiki.
IJalimane isendaweni engavamile phakathi nale mpikiswano. Yizwe laseYurophu elixhumene kakhulu neShayina. Aligcini nje ngokuthenga izimpahla ezenziwe eShayina, kodwa futhi lithengisa izimpahla ezinkulu zezimboni, lingumtshali-zimali omkhulu eShayina, futhi linezimboni ezinkulu (izimoto, amakhemikhali, imishini) ezakhele ukuthembela okujulile, okuthathe iminyaka eyishumi ezinkambisweni zokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo saseShayina. Ngakho-ke, lapho kuvela isihloko sokunciphisa ubungozi kanye nokwehlukahluka, kubalulekile ukuthola impendulo esekelwe kudatha embuzweni wokuthi ngabe abathengi baseJalimane bayathutha ngempela yini hhayi nje ukukhuluma ngokuthutha.
Lesi sihloko sibheka lokho okuboniswa ubufakazi buka-2024 no-2025. Impendulo iyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu kunendaba ethi “imboni yaseJalimane ibambeke eShayina” noma indaba ethi “wonke umuntu uya eVietnam naseNdiya”. Zombili ziyiqiniso ngokwengxenye, futhi ukuqonda kwangempela ngochungechunge lokuhlinzeka kuvela ekwazini umehluko phakathi kwalezi zinto ezimbili.
Izinga Lokuthembela KwaseShayina eJalimane
Kubalulekile ukusetha isisekelo ngaphambi kokuzama ukuthola ukuthi kukhona yini ushintsho olukhona. I-China ingumlingani omkhulu kunabo bonke eJalimane ongenisa impahla, okwenza cishe u-10.9% wazo zonke izinto ezithunyelwa eJalimane, noma cishe u-€160 billion ngonyaka. Lokho kugxila kunamandla nakakhulu ekukhiqizeni, lapho i-China ithola khona izingxenye eziningi ze-elekthronikhi neze-elekthronikhi, izingxenye ezinembile, kanye nezimpahla zezimboni eziphakathi nendawo. Embonini yezimoto yaseJalimane kuphela, ukuvezwa kweketanga lokuhlinzeka ngezingxenye zaseShayina kuqala kusukela kuma-wiring ayisisekelo kuya kumaseli ebhethri athuthukile.
Phakathi kuka-2015 no-2023, ukungeniswa kwezimpahla eJalimane okuvela eShayina kukhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-40%. Futhi ubudlelwano bokuhwebelana phakathi kwamazwe amabili buhlala bubalulekile ngokwesakhiwo: ngo-2025, ukuhweba okuphelele phakathi kweShayina neJalimane kufinyelele ku-1.51 trillion yuan (cishe amaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingama-217.8), okwenyuka ngo-5.2% unyaka nonyaka. IShayina yaphinde yathola isikhundla sayo njengomlingani omkhulu kakhulu wezohwebo waseJalimane ngalowo nyaka, isimo eyayisibambe kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2023 ngaphambi kokuba idlulwe isikhashana yi-United States ngo-2024. Imikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi yodwa yayibalelwa ku-70.8% yenani lokuhweba phakathi kwamazwe amabili ngo-2025.
| inkomba | Idatha / Isimo |
| Isabelo seShayina sokungenisa impahla eJalimane (2024) | ~10.9% yazo zonke izinto ezingenisiwe, cishe ama-€160 billion |
| Ukuhwebelana phakathi kweJalimane neShayina (2025) | Ama-yuan ayizigidigidi eziyi-1.51 (~$217.8 bn); +5.2% ngonyaka |
| Ukukleliswa kweShayina njengomlingani wezohwebo waseJalimane (2025) | Umlingani omkhulu wokuhweba, ophinde watholakala ngemuva kwegebe lonyaka owodwa |
| I-FDI yaseJalimane eShayina (Jan–Nov 2025) | Kufinyelelwe izinga eliphezulu leminyaka engu-4 |
| Ucwaningo Lwegumbi LaseJalimane: izinkampani ezihlala eShayina (2024/25) | Uhlelo lwama-92% luzoqhubeka nokusebenza eShayina |
| Izinkampani zaseJalimane zihlela ukwandisa ukutshalwa kwezimali eShayina | ~51% eminyakeni emibili ezayo; 87% bakhomba ukuncintisana |
Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwaseJalimane eShayina kuye kwaphula amarekhodi ngesikhathi esifanayo. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024, i-FDI yaseJalimane eShayina yafinyelela ku-€7.3 billion - ijubane elenza iJalimane yaba nesibopho cishe ku-65% wazo zonke izimali zakwamanye amazwe ze-EU eziya eShayina kusukela ngo-2022 kuya maphakathi no-2024. Ezinyangeni ezalandela, lelo nani lakhuphuka kakhulu. NgoNovemba 2025, isitshalo esikhulu sokukhiqiza esihlanganisiwe se-BASF eZhanjiang, eGuangdong, okuwutshalomali olukhulu kakhulu lwenkampani emhlabeni, saqala ukwenza izimpahla zaso zokuqala eziyinhloko. IMercedes-Benz ifake amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili ekwenzeni izimoto ezintsha zikagesi zeShayina kuphela. IVolkswagen ithenge amasheya engeziwe eXPeng. I-Continental ifake amaRandi ayizigidi eziyi-16 esikhungweni esisha socwaningo nentuthuko eQingdao.
IJalimane ayizihoxisi eShayina, okungenani hhayi uma ubheka ukugeleza kwemali. Izinkampani ezinkulu zezimboni eJalimane ziye zehla kabili, uma kukhona. Ucwaningo lwe-2024/2025 Business Confidence oluvela kwi-German Chamber of Commerce eShayina lubonise ukuthi ama-92% ezinkampani ezingamalungu afuna ukuqhubeka nokwenza ibhizinisi lapho. Cishe ingxenye yalezo zinkampani ihlose ukutshala imali eningi eminyakeni emibili ezayo.
Kungani iShayina+1 Ithola Udumo Noma Kunjalo
Kungenzeka ukuchaza impikiswano. Izinkampani ezinkulu zaseJalimane zingakwazi ukuchitha imali eningi eShayina futhi zithuthukise umthamo wokuphakelwa kwezinye izindawo ngesikhathi esifanayo. Kodwa eqenjini elikhulu lamabhizinisi aseJalimane aphakathi nendawo, ikakhulukazi abakhiqizi baseMittelstand abayinsika yomnotho waseJalimane, umnotho ulinganiselwe kakhulu. Futhi kuphakathi kwaleli qembu lamabhizinisi, anemali engenayo ephakathi kuka-€50 no-€500 million futhi avame ukuthola izimpahla esizweni esisodwa kuphela, lapho ukucabanga kweShayina+1 kuba nomthelela oqondile kakhulu endleleni izinto ezenziwa ngayo.
Abashayeli bayaziwa kakhulu, kodwa baqine kakhulu ngo-2024 nango-2025. Isinqumo se-EU sokufaka intela ezimotweni zikagesi ezakhiwe eShayina ngo-Okthoba 2024 sasiyisinyathelo esikhulu ekuxabaneni kwezohwebo. Njengoba amanani okufika kwabahlinzeki baseShayina enyuka, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yentengo yokuthumela ngaphandle ekhuthazwa umbuso kanye nengxenye ngenxa yempahla engalindelekile, amaqembu okuthenga anaka kakhulu imodeli yezindleko eziphelele kunezindleko zamayunithi kuphela. Futhi ingozi yaseTaiwan—ithuba, nakuba isikhathi singakacaci, lokubhekana okungase kumise ukukhiqizwa kuzo zonke iziteshi zokuphakelwa zaseMpumalanga Asia—lisuke ekubeni umsebenzi wokucabanga wezepolitiki kuya kokuthile okudingeka kukhulunywe ngakho egumbini lebhodi.
Kukhona futhi i-angle yokuncintisana esongelayo, engagcizelelwa ngokwanele ezingxoxweni zochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngempahla. I-Chamber of Commerce ibuze yonke inkampani yaseJalimane yesibili, futhi bonke bathi inkampani yaseShayina izoba yintsha kakhulu emkhakheni wayo phakathi neminyaka emihlanu. Lokho kuyingozi emakethe, hhayi ekutholeni kuphela. Izinkampani okumele zincintisane nezinkampani zaseShayina ezivala igebe lobuchwepheshe ezindaweni ezifana nezinzwa, isofthiwe, kanye nabalawuli besizinda banesizathu sokunciphisa ukuchayeka kwazo kwezezimali kumaketanga okuhlinzeka ngempahla aseShayina, noma ngabe nazo zincintisana emakethe yaseShayina.
Iphi ngempela i-“+1”?
Uma abathengi baseJalimane befuna imithombo ehlukene, izindawo abaya kuzo azifani ngaso sonke isikhathi futhi zincike ezimpahleni. IVietnam manje iyindawo ethandwa kakhulu yokuhlanganisa izinto zikagesi, izindwangu, nezinye izinto zabathengi. Phakathi kuka-2015 no-2023, ukungeniswa kwamabhodi wesekethe aphrintiwe eJalimane avela eVietnam kukhuphuke ngo-655%, kusuka ku-$430,000 kuya ku-$3.2 million. Ukungeniswa kwama-PCB avela eThailand kukhuphuke ngo-24% ngesikhathi esifanayo. Lezi zinombolo zisencane uma kuqhathaniswa nenani elivela eShayina, kodwa lo mkhuba uyabonakala.
| Izwe Lokuthola Imithombo | Ukungeniswa kwe-PCB yaseJalimane ngo-2015 | Ukungeniswa kwe-PCB yaseJalimane ngo-2023 | Guqula |
| Thailand | $ 68 million | $ 85 million | + 24% |
| Vietnam | $ 0.43 million | $ 3.2 million | + 655% |
| China | Okukhulu kakhulu | Kusabusa kakhulu | Kuzinzile kakhulu kodwa ukwabelana kuyahlolwa |
Iphrofayili ye-India njengenye indlela ikhule kakhulu, ikakhulukazi emkhakheni wezokwelapha, ihadiwe ye-IT, kanye nezinye izindwangu. Isiphakamiso se-Apple sokuhambisa u-15-20% wokukhiqizwa kwe-iPhone eNdiya naseVietnam ngo-2026, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okungaphezu kwezigidigidi zamaRandi eNdiya, sidonsele ukunaka emakhonweni akhulayo ezwe, yize ukujula kochungechunge lokuphakelwa kusesekuhle njengelaseShayina. I-India ikhanga kakhulu abaphathi bezokuthengwa kwempahla baseJalimane ezindaweni ezithile ngoba inikeza ukubikezela okusemthethweni ngaphakathi kohlaka lwe-EU lokufinyelela kokuhweba okukhethekile.
IMalaysia kanye neqembu layo le-semiconductor kubalulekile ezinkampanini ze-elekthronikhi zaseJalimane kanye nezinkampani ezisebenza ngokuzenzakalelayo. Abantu abaningi bacabanga nge-Indonesia njengendawo yokwenza izinto ezidinga izinsiza eziningi kanye nezingxenye zokuhlinzeka ngezimoto. I-Thailand inohlelo lwezimoto olunesikhathi eside olwakha izimoto ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezimbili ngonyaka. Lokhu kwenza kube yindawo efanelekile yokuthi abahlinzeki bezimoto baseJalimane bafune izindawo zokukhulisa umthamo wesifunda ngaphandle kweShayina. IMexico ibaluleke kakhulu kumaketanga okuhlinzeka ase-US, kodwa manje isiba yisihloko sengxoxo emabhizinisini aseJalimane njengoba ukusondelana kushintsha indlela abantu abacabanga ngayo ngezokuthutha zomhlaba wonke.
| Izwe | Imikhakha ebalulekile | Umholo Omaphakathi Wokukhiqiza vs. China | Ingozi Eyinhloko |
| Vietnam | Izinto zikagesi, izindwangu, izicathulo | ~50% yeShayina | Ukuchayeka kwentela yase-US (44–49% kusengozini ngo-2025); Ukuhlolwa kokudluliselwa kwezimpahla zaseShayina |
| India | Imithi, ihadiwe ye-IT, izindwangu | ~30–40% yeShayina | Izikhala zengqalasizinda; indawo yokulawula eyinkimbinkimbi |
| Malaysia | Ama-semiconductor, ama-elekthronikhi | ~60–70% yeShayina | Iqembu elincane labasebenzi; Ukuhlolwa kwe-US okulwa nokuvinjelwa kwama-semiconductors |
| Indonesia | Izindwangu, izimoto, izinsiza | ~40–50% yeShayina | Ingqalasizinda, izidingo zokuqukethwe kwendawo |
| Thailand | Izimoto, izinto zikagesi, ukucubungula ukudla | ~55–65% yeShayina | Ingozi yokungazinzi kwezepolitiki; Intela yokushintshana yase-US engu-34% (2025) |
| Mexico | Izingxenye zezimoto, izinto zikagesi (ukusondela ogwini) | ~50–60% yeShayina | Ukujula kwezimboni okulinganiselwe ngokwezinga; ezombusazwe zokuhweba zase-US-Mexico |
Inkinga: I-ASEAN Ayikakabi Yodwa
Inkinga enkulu ngendaba ehlanzekile ye-China+1 ukuthi izinto eziningi ezivela eVietnam nakwezinye izindawo eziseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia zisathembele kakhulu ezintweni ezifakwa eShayina. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-elekthronikhi eVietnam, okudlule ku-$100 billion futhi kwanda ngo-48% ngo-2025, kwakhiwe kakhulu izingxenye ezivela eShayina. I-Foxconn, i-Intel, ne-Samsung zonke zifake imali eningi ekusebenzeni eVietnam, kodwa iShayina isenayo iningi lezinto zokwakha nezingxenye ezitholakalayo. Omunye umhlaziyi wakubeka ngokusobala: izinkampani zithutha i-assembly, hhayi i-supply chain.
Lokhu kungezwani kucaciswe kakhulu yizinqubomgomo zokuhweba zase-US. Uphenyo oluphikisana nokungalandelwa kwemithetho emabhizinisini elanga ne-aluminium aphethwe yiShayina eVietnam naseThailand luthumele umyalezo ezinkampanini ezisebenzisa i-ASEAN njengendlela yokuhambahamba eShayina esikhundleni sokusebenzisa enye indlela yangempela. Lapho abathengi baseJalimane becabanga ngokuthola impahla eVietnam noma eMalaysia, kudingeka bacabange ngokungaphezu nje kwezindleko zamanje zokufika. Kudingeka futhi bacabange ngendlela yokulawula, ikakhulukazi ukuthi iziphathimandla zentela ze-EU noma zase-US zingase zibone yini izimpahla ezenziwe ngezinto ezifakwayo zaseShayina njengezaseShayina.
Iqiniso Elisemhlabathini: Lokho Okwenziwa Yizinkampani Ezinkulu ZaseJalimane Empeleni
Izinkampani ezinkulu zezimboni zaseJalimane zonke zibonakala zilandela uhlelo olufanayo: zandisa imisebenzi yazo eShayina ukuze zihlangabezane nesidingo lapho, kuyilapho zithuthukisa ngokukhetha amandla ngaphandle kweShayina ukuze zihlangabezane nesidingo lapho. Lokhu kuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi “iShayina yeShayina,” okuyindlela yokwenza izinto zasendaweni evikela imisebenzi yaseShayina ezinkingeni zezepolitiki ngokuqinisekisa ukuthi ingakwazi ukusebenza yodwa. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kunciphisa inani lezimpahla eziya eJalimane ezidlula ezikhungweni zaseShayina.
| Company | Umkhakha | Ukuthutha Kwamuva KwaseShayina | Umsebenzi Wokuhlukahluka |
| Volkswagen | Izithuthi | Ukutshalwa kwezimali okungu-$700M ku-XPeng; ukuthuthukisa ngokubambisana ama-EV amabili ngo-2026 | Ukuhlola umhlangano we-ASEAN wezimakethe ezingezona ezaseShayina |
| BASF | amakhemikhali | Isikhungo esihlanganisiwe saseZhanjiang saqala ukukhiqizwa ngoNovemba 2025 | Igcina indawo yokukhiqiza yomhlaba wonke |
| I-Mercedes-Benz | Izithuthi | Ukutshalwa kwezimali okungu-$2B kumamodeli e-EV athile aseShayina (2025–2027) | I-India JV yemakethe yendawo |
| yezwekazi | Izingxenye ezizenzakalelayo | Isikhungo se-R&D esingu-€16M eQingdao (2024–2025) | Ukukhetha okukhethiwe kwe-Southeast Asia kokunikezwa okungeyona eyaseShayina |
| I-infineon | semiconductors | Ukuqinisa ubudlelwano baseShayina | Imfashini yaseMalaysia isalokhu iyisikhungo esiyinhloko sokukhiqiza esingeyona iShayina |
| Bosch | Industrial | Ukwehla kabili kokunikezwa kwe-OEM yaseShayina eShayina | Ukwandisa isisekelo sokukhiqiza saseNdiya |
UBosch no-ZF Friedrichshafen, abaphakeli bezingxenye zezimoto abakhulu eJalimane, bebelokhu bekhulisa ibhizinisi labo eShayina kanye nekhono labo lokuphakela izingxenye ngaphandle kweShayina ngesikhathi esisodwa. Umqondo uwukuthi ama-OEM aseShayina, akhulisa ukubusa kwemakethe emhlabeni wonke futhi aqala ukuthumela kwamanye amazwe evela eShayina, aba amakhasimende abaluleke kakhulu kubaphakeli baseJalimane abasezingeni lokuqala. Ukuze ubaphakele, udinga ukuba seShayina. Kodwa ukuze uphakele ama-OEM aseYurophu noma aseNyakatho Melika nawo anciphisa izingozi zawo, udinga ama-node ochungechunge lokuphakela ngaphandle kweShayina. Ngakho-ke umphakeli ofanayo waseJalimane angaba mkhulu eSuzhou futhi athole nomphakeli omusha ePune.
UHermann Simon, isazi sezomnotho saseJalimane esaqhamuka nomqondo weHidden Champions, wakubeka kanje: Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwaseShayina, ikakhulukazi ku-R&D, kukhombisa ukuthi bayawazisa ngempela amakhono abaholi baseJalimane iMittelstand, hhayi ukuthi babambeke ezindleleni zabo. “IShayina ayigcini nje ngokuthola izinto ezintsha, kodwa isivele ihamba phambili emikhakheni eminingi,” etshela i-Xinhua ngesikhathi sokuvakasha kukaMashi 2025. Lokhu kusho ukuthi izinkampani ezihlala zitshale imali eningi eShayina azigwemi ingozi; zinquma ukuthi izindleko zokungabandakanyeki ziphakeme kunezindleko zokuhlala zihilelekile.
"Ukukhathala Kokuhlukahluka": Kungani Ezinye Izinkampani ZaseJalimane Zihoxa Kuhlelo lwe-+1
Olunye ulwazi oluthakazelisayo kakhulu oluvela ocwaningweni lwakamuva yilokho i-Rhodium Group ekubize ngokuthi “ukukhathala kokuhlukahluka” phakathi kwabaholi bebhizinisi baseJalimane. Ngemva kokubheka ezinye izimakethe eminyakeni embalwa edlule, abaholi bebhizinisi abaningi baseJalimane banquma ukuthi alikho elinye izwe elingancintisana neChina uma kukhulunywa ngezindleko, ukujula kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka, ingqalasizinda yezokuthutha, kanye nesimiso sezimboni. Ezinye izinkampani ezaqala izinhlelo zokuhlola zase-China+1 eVietnam noma eNdiya ziye zanciphisa ngokuthula ngemuva kokuthola ukuthi ikhwalithi, isikhathi sokuhola, noma ukutholakala kwezingxenye akuzange kufinyelele amazinga amakhasimende azo alindele.
Lokhu akulona iqiniso kuyo yonke imikhiqizo; kuyahlukahluka kakhulu ngohlobo lomkhiqizo nokuthi umthengi ukuphi ochungechungeni lwenani. Isitolo sezingubo saseJalimane esithenga izindwangu singayishintsha ngempela ikhiqizwe laseShayina ngokhiqizwe waseVietnam noma waseBangladesh. Inkampani yaseJalimane eyenza amathuluzi omshini futhi edinga ukuthungwa okunembile noma izingxenye ezibekezelela kakhulu inezinketho ezimbalwa kakhulu ezingahambisana nezidingo ngentengo efanelekile. Lapho ingxenye eyenziwe iyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, bambalwa abathengisi abangebona abaseShayina abangakunikeza.
Isimo sezepolitiki sishintshile ngezindlela ezenza kube nzima ukulandisa indaba eqondile yokususa ubungozi. Ngo-2024, uShansela waseJalimane u-Olaf Scholz waya eBeijing. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, umlandeli wakhe ugcine ukuhweba njengento ebaluleke kakhulu kwinqubomgomo yezangaphandle. Abanye osomnotho baseJalimane baqale ngisho nokubiza iChina ngokuthi umlingani wezohwebo othembekile, okuyinto exakile ngoba isu lokuhweba likahulumeni kaTrump lika-2025 lenze amanani entengo ase-US angabikezeleki futhi lenza ubudlelwano bezohwebo base-US bubukeke bungazinzile. Isu lochungechunge lokuphakelwa alisebenzi endaweni engenazo izingozi kwezepolitiki. Ngenxa yokuthi inqubomgomo yokuhwebelana yase-US ayizinzile, abanye abathengi baseJalimane abazimisele kangako ukusetha izintambo zokuphakelwa ezihambisana ne-US.
Ukuphatha Ushintsho: Lokho Okwenziwa Yi-Logistics Partners eShayina+1
Kumabhizinisi aseshintshe ekuhleleni aya ekwenzeni okuthile eShayina+1, ingxenye yezokuthutha yilapho ingozi enkulu ikhona. Uma uthola izimpahla ezivela eShayina naseVietnam noma eShayina naseNdiya, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kanye nemithetho yentela kuba nzima kakhulu. Kufanele ubhekane nezindleko eziningi zokulayisha impahla, izinhlaka ezahlukene zokuthobela imithetho, imijikelezo emide yokufaneleka komhlinzeki, kanye nokuqhathanisa izindleko ngeyunithi ngayinye kuzo zonke izinketho ezahlukene ze-modal kanye nezinkampani zokuthwala impahla.
I-Topway Shipping, ebilokhu isebenza kusukela ngo-2010 futhi iseShenzhen, isungule inkampani yayo kule ndawo. Ithimba labasunguli bale nkampani lineminyaka engaphezu kwengu-15 yesipiliyoni kwezokuthutha kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokususwa kwezimpahla zamasiko, ligxile ekuthuthweni kwezimpahla ezivela eShayina. Bangochwepheshe ezixazululweni zokuthutha ze-e-commerce eziwela imingcele. Ezinkampanini ezisebenzisa amasu okuthola izinto ezivela ezinhlobonhlobo, njengokuhambisa izimpahla eziqediwe kumhlinzeki waseShayina ngenkathi zithuthukisa enye indlela yaseVietnam, noma ukubhekana nokuphakama kwesidingo sesizini okudinga ingxube yezimpahla zomoya, zesitimela, kanye nezolwandle, i-Topway inolwazi lokuqhubeka nokusebenza kanye nokuthobela imithetho oludingwa ukuthengwa kwezimpahla emazweni amaningi.
Izinsizakalo zeTopway zimboza lonke uchungechunge lwezokuthutha, kusukela esigabeni sokuqala sokuthutha kusuka esitshalweni noma endaweni yokugcina impahla yangaphakathi kuya echwebeni lokusuka kulo, kuya phesheya kwezilwandle. kugcinwa ezindaweni ezibalulekile zokusabalalisa eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika, ekukhishweni kwempahla yamasiko kokubili lapho isuka khona nalapho iya khona, futhi ekugcineni ekulethweni okuhamba ibanga elide. Le nkampani iphinde inikeze izinsizakalo zokuthutha ulwandle ze-FCL (umthwalo ogcwele) kanye ne-LCL (umthwalo ongaphansi kwesitsha) eziguquguqukayo ezivela eShayina kuya emachwebeni amakhulu emhlabeni jikelele. Lokhu kuwusizo ikakhulukazi kubangenisi abangewona amanani amaningi avela eShayina, kodwa ingxube yabo yama-oda ishintshile—ama-oda amancane, avame kakhulu njengoba ukuphathwa kwempahla kuba nzima. Kumakhasimende aseJalimane afuna ngempela ukuphatha isisekelo sokulethwa kwempahla saseShayina+1, ukuba nomlingani wezokuthutha owazi okuningi ngendlela izinto ezisebenza ngayo eShayina—kunokuba umuntu obona iShayina njengendawo eyodwa nje phakathi kwabaningi—kubanika ithuba lokusebenza langempela.
Yini Okufanele Abathengi BaseJalimane Bayenze Ngempela?
Impendulo eqotho iwukuthi i-China+1 ayisona isisombululo esifanelana nosayizi owodwa. Luhlaka oludinga ukusetshenziswa esigabeni ngasinye, kucatshangelwa ukuvuthwa kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa komkhiqizo ngamunye kwamanye amazwe, ukuzimisela komthengi ukwamukela ingozi yokuguquka, kanye nesakhiwo sezindleko sento okukhulunywa ngayo. Amaqembu okuthenga asebenzisa uhlelo lokulinganisa olunengozi ukuqhathanisa wonke amathuba abo okuthola esikhundleni sokuzama nje "ukunciphisa i-China ibe yi-X%" avame ukuthola izindlela eziwusizo kakhulu zokwenza izinto.
Ukuhlukahluka okusebenzayo kusebenza kahle kakhulu emikhiqizweni enezici ezithile ezifanayo: inzima kakhulu ukuyihlanganisa (okwenza i-arbitrage ibe yinto efanele), iyinkimbinkimbi ngokulinganisela kodwa ayincikile ngokuphelele emaqenjini ezimboni aseShayina, futhi isengozini yokukhokhiswa intela emakethe yayo yokugcina noma endleleni yayo yokuthutha. Izindwangu, ukuhlanganiswa kwe-elekthronikhi yabathengi, ezinye izingxenye zepulasitiki, ifenisha, kanye nezingxenye zikagesi ezivamile konke kuwela ngaphansi kwalesi sigaba. Ezinye izindlela ezivela eVietnam, eNdiya naseMalaysia zivuthiwe ngokwanele ukusekela amasu amakhulu okuthola izinto kulezi zindawo.
Ezimpahleni ezincike ezindaweni zemvelo zaseShayina ezijulile, njengezinto eziqondile, amakhemikhali akhethekile, kanye nezinto zikagesi ezithuthukisiwe, lapho ukujula kokuhlinzekwa kweShayina kungenakushintshwa khona esikhathini esifushane kuya kwesesikhathini esiphakathi, indlela ewusizo kakhulu ubunjiniyela bokuqina ngaphakathi kweShayina. Lokhu kusho ukwakha isitoko sokuphepha, abahlinzeki besibili baseShayina abafanelekayo, ukuhlukahluka ngaphakathi kwesisekelo sokukhiqiza sesifunda saseShayina, kanye nokuhlela izinkontileka ukuqinisekisa ukuthi amanani acacile ngesikhathi sokuphazamiseka. Njengoba abahlaziyi abaningi besho, kungathatha iminyaka futhi kubize izikhathi eziningi kakhulu kunalokho okubiza manje ukwakha kabusha lezi zintambo zokuhlinzekwa ngaphandle kweShayina. Kufanele wenze lokho kuhwebelana ngokwethembeka, hhayi nje ukungakunaki.
Isiphetho
Ingabe abathengi baseJalimane bashintsha ngempela izintambo zabo zokuhlinzeka? Impendulo ithi: ngokukhetha, ngenhloso, futhi ngokungaguquguquki okuncane kakhulu kunalokho okushiwo indaba eyinhloko. Izinkampani ezinkulu zaseJalimane zenza ukutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe eShayina ngenkathi ngesikhathi esifanayo zakha amandla azo angewona awaseShayina. Lokhu akuyona impikiswano; kuyindlela yokuzivikela kuzo zombili izimakethe. Amabhizinisi aseMittelstand ahlukana ezindaweni ezithile lapho kakade kunezinketho ezinhle, kodwa ayayeka ukuzama ukuhlukahluka ezindaweni lapho kungekho zinketho ezinhle okwamanje. Futhi inani elikhulu labaholi bebhizinisi baseJalimane selifinyelele esiphethweni sokuthi akukho okunye okukhethayo okuletha inhlanganisela yobukhulu baseShayina, ukujula kwe-ecosystem, kanye ne-logistics ethembekile—okungenani okwamanje.
Indlela esicabanga ngayo ngezinto iyashintsha ngempela. Abathengi baseJalimane babevame ukubona iShayina njengento engaphikiswana ngayo, kodwa manje sebebuza lo mbuzo ngentshiseko. Lolu ushintsho, noma ngabe isenzo esilandelayo sincane. Amaketanga okunikezela akhiwa eVietnam, eNdiya naseMalaysia njengamanje ayizinyathelo zokuqala eziya oshintshoni oluzothatha iminyaka eyishumi, hhayi izinyanga ezintathu. Ukwenyuka okungu-655% kokungeniswa kwe-PCB yaseJalimane kusuka eVietnam phakathi kuka-2015 no-2023 kuyisibonakaliso, kodwa akulona ushintsho oluyisisekelo okwamanje.
Ezinkampanini zezokuthutha, abakhiqizi, kanye namaqembu okuthenga asebenza kule ndawo, ikhono elibaluleke kakhulu akusikho ukukhetha umphumela owodwa wesikhathi esizayo—obusa iShayina noma okhuphukayo we-ASEAN—kodwa ukukwazi ukusebenza kokubili njengoba ibhalansi ishintsha kancane futhi ngokungalindelekile. Yilapho umsebenzi wochungechunge lokuhlinzeka uzokwenziwa khona eminyakeni embalwa ezayo.
Imibuzo Evame Ukubuzwa
Q: Iyini ngempela isu le-China+1?
A: I-China+1 iwumkhuba wokwengeza okungenani elinye izwe elilodwa enhlanganisweni yabaphakeli, ngokuvamile iVietnam, i-India, iMalaysia, i-Indonesia, noma iMexico, ukuze kuqiniswe ukuqina kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka kanye nokunciphisa ingozi yezepolitiki.
Q: Ingabe izinkampani zaseJalimane ziyanciphisa ukuthembela kwazo eShayina ngo-2024-2025?
A: Akuzona zonke. Izinkampani ezinkulu zezimboni zaseJalimane zitshala imali eningi eShayina ngenkathi zakha amandla azo kwamanye amazwe. Ukungeniswa kwezimpahla eJalimane eVietnam nakwezinye izimakethe ze-ASEAN kuyakhula ezigabeni ezithile zemikhiqizo, njenge-PCB, izindwangu, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwe-elekthronikhi. Ushintsho luhamba kancane kakhulu ezimpahleni zezimboni ezidinga imali eningi.
Q: Yimaphi amazwe ayizindlela ezingcono kakhulu ze-China+1 kubathengi baseYurophu?
A: IVietnam iyindawo engcono kakhulu yokuhlanganisa izinto zikagesi kanye nezindwangu ngenxa yezindleko zayo eziphansi kanye nengqalasizinda yokutshalwa kwezimali ngqo yangaphandle (i-FDI). I-India iyathuthuka ekwenzeni izidakamizwa kanye nehadiwe yamakhompyutha. Ama-semiconductor ayindawo enamandla eMalaysia. I-Thailand iyindawo enhle yokuthola izingxenye zemoto. Isinqumo esifanele sincike kakhulu ohlotsheni lomkhiqizo nokuthi uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka luvuthiwe kangakanani endaweni ngayinye.
Q: Kuyini 'ukukhathala kokuhlukahluka' phakathi kwezinkampani zaseJalimane?
A: Abanye abaphathi baseJalimane ababheke ezinye izimakethe bafinyelele esiphethweni sokuthi alikho elinye izwe elinenhlanganisela efanayo yezindleko eziphansi, uhlelo lwezimboni oluqinile, ukuthuthwa kwempahla okuthembekile, kanye nobubanzi obukhulu njengeShayina. Abanye abantu kuye kwadingeka banciphise izinhloso zabo zokwehlukahluka, ikakhulukazi endabeni yezingxenye eziyinkimbinkimbi ezikhiqizwe lapho ezinye izindlela zingakakwazi ukuhambisana nezindinganiso zekhwalithi noma zomthamo.
Q: I-Topway Shipping ingazisekela kanjani izinkampani ezilawula izinto zokuthutha zase-China+1?
A: I-Topway Shipping inikeza izinsizakalo ezigcwele zokuthutha, okuhlanganisa ukuthuthwa emlenzeni wokuqala, ukususwa kwezimpahla zamasiko, ukugcinwa kwamanye amazwe, kanye nokulethwa emlenzeni wokugcina. I-Topway ingumlingani omuhle wezinhlangano ezinezinkambo zokuhlinzeka ezivela kokubili eShayina nakwamanye amamakethe ngoba inolwazi oluningi ngezokuthutha zaseShayina futhi inikeza ezinye izindlela zokuthutha olwandle ze-FCL/LCL eziguquguqukayo.
