Ukuthunyelwa Kusuka EShayina Kuya EMexico: I-NAFTA Ihambile — Nakhu Okulawula Izindleko Zakho Manje
Uma usahlela ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla ukusuka eShayina kuya eMexico njengokungathi i-NAFTA iyincwadi yemithetho, usebenza kusukela kumephu ephelelwe yisikhathi ngeminyaka eyisithupha. I-NAFTA yathathelwa indawo yiSivumelwano sase-United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) ngoJulayi 2020, kwathi ngo-2026 isisekelo sashintsha futhi: IMexico ibeke amanani amasha amakhulu emazweni angewona awe-FTA okuhlanganisa neShayina, i-USMCA ngokwayo ibukezwa okokuqala ngokuhlanganyela, futhi inqubomgomo yentela yase-US ezimpahleni ezidlula eMexico isibe yinto engalindelekile ngempela. Lokhu akuyona umsindo wenqubomgomo ongaqondakali. Kushintsha izindleko zokuletha isitsha esingamamitha angu-40 sisuka eShenzhen, ikhono lezimpahla zakho lokudlulisa ziye e-United States ngaphandle kwentela kamuva, kanye nenani lamaphepha phakathi kwempahla yakho nomthengi wakho.
Kulesi sihloko, sizokwephula imithetho yangempela elawula amanani okuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eShayina kuya eMexico namuhla, sihambe ngezinombolo zentela kanye nezindleko zokuthutha ezibonwa ngabangenisi emakethe njengamanje, futhi sibonise lapho ukuthunyelwa kwezimpahla kungase kungahambi kahle khona uma uhlangothi lokuthobela imithetho lubhekwa njengolucatshangelwe kamuva.
I-NAFTA Ingumlando. Nansi Uhlaka Olwayithatha Indawo Yalo
Ngomhlaka-1 kuJulayi 2020, i-NAFTA yaphelelwa yisikhathi ngokusemthethweni njengoba i-USMCA iqala ukusebenza. Kodwa lowo mehluko awubalulekile kangako njengoba abaningi bekholelwa ezinkampanini ezithumela izimpahla ezivela eShayina ngeMexico njengoba i-NAFTA noma i-USMCA azikaze zimboze ngqo izimpahla ezivela eShayina. Zombili lezi zivumelwano zichaza ukuthi kwenzekani ekuthunyelweni lapho kufika eNyakatho Melika - ukuthi izinto ezikhiqizwe noma ezihlanganiswe eMexico zingabe sezidlulela e-United States noma eCanada ngaphandle kokukhokha intela futhi.
Lelo lungelo lincike ngokuphelele emithethweni yokuvela ngaphansi kwe-USMCA. Isenzo nje sokuphinda ulebhele, ukupakisha kabusha noma ukuhlanganiswa okulula eMexico akwenzi umkhiqizo ube "waseMexico" ngezizathu zentela. Impahla kumele iguqulwe kakhulu, ngokuvamile ngendlela yokushintsha kwentengo efanelekile, imfuneko yokuqukethwe kwenani lesifunda, noma kokubili. Impahla ye-elekthronikhi eqediwe evela eShayina, epakishwe ephaketheni elisha eTijuana futhi ithuthelwe eTexas ayifaneleki. Ngaphansi kwemithetho ethile yekhodi ye-HS, ibhodi lesifunda elenziwe ngezingxenye zaseShayina ezisebenzisa ukukhiqizwa kwangempela kwe-surface-mount esitshalweni saseMexico lingabhekwa njengomkhiqizo ohlukile.
Lo mehluko ube yinkinga ephikisana kakhulu njengoba izindlela zokubuyekezwa okuhlangene ze-USMCA zangoJulayi 1, 2026, eziphoqelelwe ngaphansi kwe-Athikili 34.7 yesivumelwano. Ohulumeni abathathu babhekene nesinqumo sokuthi bavuselele yini i-USMCA iminyaka eyishumi nesithupha, futhi imithetho yemvelaphi - ikakhulukazi izinyathelo ezihlose ukuqinisa izikhala zokukhiqiza ezixhumene neShayina - ziphezulu ohlwini.
Udonga Olusha Lwentela YaseMexico: Umshayeli Wezindleko Wangempela Ngo-2026
Ngomhlaka-29 Disemba 2025, i-Secretaría de Hacienda yaseMexico yamemezela isinqumo sokubuyekeza uMthetho Wentela Yokungenisa Nokuthumela Ngaphandle Ojwayelekile ukuze kwandiswe intela emigqeni yentela engu-1,463 emikhakheni yezimboni engaba yishumi nambili. Lezi zinguquko zaqala ukusebenza ngoJanuwari 1, 2026 futhi zithinta kuphela izimpahla ezivela emazweni angenaso isivumelwano sokuhweba ngokukhululekile neMexico - uhlu oluhlanganisa iShayina, iNdiya, iVietnam, iNingizimu Korea, iThailand, i-Indonesia kanye nezinye eziningana. Izimpahla ezivela e-United States naseCanada azithinteki, njengoba zingaphansi kwe-USMCA.
Ukwenyuka kwamanani akulona uphawu. Kusuka cishe ku-5% kuya ku-50% kuye ngesigaba somkhiqizo, futhi kuthinta ezinye zezigaba ezivame ukungeniswa zivela eShayina ngabathumeli abahlinzeka ngezimakethe zaseMexico naseNyakatho Melika.
| Umkhakha Othintekile | Uhla Lwezintela Ezintsha ze-MFN | Inothi Eliwusizo |
| Izindwangu kanye nezingubo | I-10% - 50% | Phakathi kokunyuka okuphezulu kakhulu; izicathulo zilandela iphethini efanayo |
| Amathoyizi | I-15% - 35% | Isigaba esibuswa kakhulu yizimpahla ezivela eShayina |
| izicathulo | I-15% - 45% | Kuhlanganiswe nezenzo ezikhona zokulwa nokulahla izimpahla kwamanye amakhodi e-HS |
| Imikhiqizo yensimbi ne-aluminium | I-10% - 25% | Ibekwe phezu kwezilinganiso zesitayela seSigaba 232 ohlangothini lwase-US |
| Izingxenye zezimoto nezimoto eziqediwe | I-20% - 50% | Isigaba esibucayi kakhulu kwezepolitiki ngaphambi kokubuyekezwa kukaJulayi 2026 |
| Ipulasitiki, isikhumba, iphepha, izimonyo | I-5% - 20% | Ukwanda okubanzi kuzo zonke izimpahla eziphakathi nendawo |
Ukuthunyelwa kweposi kuye kwancishiswa ngaphezu kokwenyuka kwemboni. Izinga lomhlaba wonke lamaphasela anenani eliphansi (ngaphansi kuka-$2,500) lenyuke lisuka ku-19% laya ku-33.5% lokuthunyelwa okuvela ngaphandle kwe-United States ne-Canada, okuyisiteleka esiqondile sabathengisi be-e-commerce abavela emingceleni ababethembele ohlelweni lwesitayela se-de minimis lwaseMexico.
Uhulumeni waseMexico ubhale lesi siphakamiso njengethuluzi lenqubomgomo yezimboni elibanzi kunokuba liqondiswe ezweni elithile, ngokusho kukaMengameli uSheinbaum engqungqutheleni yabezindaba ngoJanuwari 2026. Eqinisweni, iShayina ingumthombo wesibili ngobukhulu waseMexico wokungenisa impahla ngemuva kwe-United States, ngakho-ke umphumela uzoba kakhulu ezimpahleni ezivela eShayina. Ngayo leyo nyanga, uMnyango Wezohwebo waseShayina waqala uphenyo lwezithiyo zokuhweba nokutshalwa kwezimali ezenzweni zaseMexico.
Isu 'leMexico njenge-Backdoor' Liyaphela
Abanye abathumeli bezimpahla sebenesikhathi eside behambisa izimpahla eMexico: benza imikhiqizo eShayina, bayithumele eMexico ukuze icutshungulwe kancane, bese beyithumela kabusha e-United States ngaphansi kwesinqumo se-USMCA, belindele ukugwema ngokuphelele intela ye-US-China. Umgwaqo uya uncipha kuzo zombili izinhlangothi ngesikhathi esisodwa.
Okokuqala, amanani entela aseMexico ngokwawo manje asenyuse izindleko zokungenisa izimpahla zaseShayina endaweni yaseMexico kwasekuqaleni, ngaphambi kokuba kucatshangelwe noma yikuphi ukuthunyelwa okwengeziwe. Okwesibili, isibuyekezo se-USMCA sika-2026 cishe sizoqinisa izigaba zokulwa nokuvinjelwa kanye nokulwa nokudluliselwa kwezimpahla ukuze zimboze ngokusobala izimo lapho ukucubungula kwaseMexico kwehluleka khona ukwenza ushintsho olukhulu lwangempela. Izikhulu zoMmeleli Wezohwebo wase-US zithe izinkinga ezivame kakhulu okukhulunywe ngazo ngesikhathi sokuphawula komphakathi ngaphambi kokubuyekezwa zihlanganisa imithetho yemvelaphi kanye nokukhathazeka ngokuphepha komnotho.
Izingqinamba zisobala embonini yezimoto. Abakhiqizi bezimoto zikagesi baseShayina okuhlanganisa ne-BYD bacabangele noma baqale ukuhlela imisebenzi yokuhlanganisa eMexico ngokwengxenye njengendlela yokungena emakethe yase-US ngaphansi kokuthandwa yi-USMCA. Eziningana zalezo zinhlelo zamiswa noma zachithwa ngo-2025 phakathi kokungezwani kwezohwebo okwandayo kanye nokuhlolwa okwandisiwe kokutshalwa kwezimali kokukhiqiza kwaseShayina eMexico, kanti ukubuyekezwa kuka-2026 kulindeleke kakhulu ukuthi kubeke imikhawulo ethile embonini ehlobene neShayina ezuza ngesimo se-USMCA.
Akukho lutho lapha oluhloselwe ukuphakamisa ukuthi izimpahla zokukhiqiza zaseMexico zangempela nezinkulu zingafanelekela ukuphathwa ngendlela ekhethekile. Kusho ukuthi imingcele yokubonisa ukuthi ushintsho lungokoqobo iyaqhubeka nokwenyuka futhi umthwalo wemibhalo - amabhili ezinto zokwakha, izitifiketi zomhlinzeki, izincazelo zenqubo ezigcinwe okungenani iminyaka emihlanu - akuseyona imibhalo yokuzikhethela. Umehluko phakathi kokungena ngaphandle kwentela kanye nentela egcwele, kabili - kanye lapho ungena eMexico futhi futhi lapho ungena e-United States.
Lokho Okubiza Ngempela Lokhu: Izindleko Zokuthutha Ulwandle kanye Nezokufika Ngo-2026
Inqubomgomo yentela iyingxenye nje yesithombe sezindleko. Ingxenye yesibili yizindleko zokuthutha isitsha ngokoqobo sisuka echwebeni laseShayina siye kwelaseMexico. Lolu hlangothi lwencwadi yezikweletu lushintshe kakhulu kusukela ngasekupheleni kuka-2025, oluqhutshwa ukuphinda kugcwaliswe ngaphambi kweholide, umthamo wemikhumbi oqinile kanye nokuminyana emachwebeni amabili aphambili ePacific eMexico.
| road | Isitsha esingamamitha angu-20 (GP) | Isitsha esingamamitha angu-40 (iHQ) | Ukuhamba Okujwayelekile |
| I-Shenzhen / Yantian → Manzanillo | $ 2,700 - $ 4,050 | $ 3,500 - $ 5,500 | Izinsuku eziyi-20 - 24 |
| Shanghai / Ningbo → Manzanillo | $ 2,600 - $ 3,900 | $ 4,200 - $ 6,400 | Izinsuku eziyi-24 - 30 |
| Noma iyiphi ichweba elikhulu laseChina → Lázaro Cárdenas | $ 2,700 - $ 4,100 | $ 3,600 - $ 5,700 | Izinsuku eziyi-22 - 26 |
| Izimpahla zomoya (IShayina → I-MEX/GDL/MTY) | - | $4.50 - $7.50/kg | Izinsuku eziyi-3 - 7 |
Abangenisi bangalindela ukukhokha izindleko zokuqala eShayina, ngaphezu kwesilinganiso solwandle oluyisisekelo (cishe u-$150 kuya ku-$300, ngemibhalo, ukuphathwa kwechweba kanye nezimali zamasiko zokuthumela ngaphandle); izindleko zokuya eMexico (cishe u-$200 kuya ku-$450, ukuphathwa kwetheminali kanye nokulethwa endaweni yokugcina impahla); kanye nentela yokungenisa yaseMexico, manje eseyisilinganiso esingaba ngu-11% wenani lezimpahla kuzo zonke izigaba, yize izinga elisebenzayo kunoma yikuphi ukuthunyelwa okuthile lincike ngokuphelele ekuhlukanisweni kwayo kwe-HS kanye nezwe elivela kulo. Engeza imali evela kuMthengisi Wezentela ukuze kulungiselelwe i-Pedimento okuyisimemezelo esisemthethweni sokungenisa eMexico kanye nanoma yiziphi izindleko zokuhlola noma ukulebula ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nemithethonqubo ye-NOM (Normas Oficiales Mexicanas) uma kudingeka.
Ukuminyana Kwechweba: Manzanillo Versus Lázaro Cárdenas
IManzanillo iyaqhubeka nokuba yichweba elimatasa kakhulu laseMexico kanye nomzila okhethwayo wezinkampani eziningi zaseShayina, kodwa kunezindleko okufanele zikhokhwe ngenxa yalolo dumo. Ngo-2026, abathuthi bezimpahla emzileni babika ukuthi imikhumbi ilinde izinsuku ezinhlanu kuya kweziyi-10 e-anchorage ukuze nje ithole indawo yokulala, bese kuba nokuminyana egcekeni lemikhumbi okwengeza elinye isonto noma amabili ngaphambi kokuba imoto ihlelwe ukuthi ithathe ibhokisi. Uma isikhathi sokuphumula siphela kulokho kulinda, ukwehla kwamandla okuthutha kanye nokuboshwa kungase kwengeze kalula amanye amaRandi ayinkulungwane noma ngaphezulu ngesitsha ngasinye kulokho okwakubonakala njengentengo engabizi.
| Isici | I-Puerto de Manzanillo | Lazaro Cardenas |
| Ukuminyana kwamanje | Ngokuvamile lapho kugcwele khona noma eduze; Kubikwe ukulinda kwezinsuku ezi-5-10 lapho kubekwe khona izintambo ngo-2026 | Ilula kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa, yize amavolumu enyuka ngokushesha |
| Ukuxhumana kukaloliwe | Isitimela esiqondile esilinganiselwe; iloli lidonsa umoya kakhulu | Izixhumanisi zesitimela ze-KCSM eziqondile eziya eMexico City naseMonterrey |
| Ifaneleka kakhulu | Ukusatshalaliswa kweCentral Mexico uma kubhukwe kusenesikhathi eside | Imizila yezimboni yaseBajío kanye neyasenyakatho, imithwalo emikhulu |
| Demurrage ingozi | Kuphakanyisiwe ngesikhathi sokuvuselela kabusha okuphezulu | Yehla, kodwa iyanda njengoba umthamo ushintsha uye eningizimu |
Manje iLázaro Cárdenas iyivalvu yokucindezela. Ukusebenza kwayo kwesiteshi esizenzakalelayo kanye nezixhumanisi zesitimela eziqondile eziqhutshwa yiKansas City Southern de México kuvumela amabhokisi ukuthi adlulele kusuka esikebheni aye esitimeleni ngaphandle kokudlula embotsheni yesango lamaloli elinciphisa iManzanillo. Ngempahla edlula eMexico City, iBajío noma iMonterrey, indlela edlula eLázaro Cárdenas inganciphisa indlela yolwandle ende kancane ngokukhishwa kwesiteshi esisheshayo kakhulu kanye nengozi yokuncipha kokuminyana.
Ukwakha Isu Lokuthumela Elihambisana Nezindleko, Elilawulwa Yizindleko
Njengoba isimo esiningi sezindleko manje sincike emibhalweni nasezinqumweni zomzila, hhayi izinga lokuthutha olwandle lodwa, okubaluleke kakhulu kubangenisi ukusondela ekuhambisaneni nemithetho kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza njengenselele eyodwa ehlanganisiwe, hhayi ezimbili ezihlukene. Abathumeli bezimpahla emzileni basikisela ukubhukha amasonto amathathu kuya kwamane ngaphambi kosuku lokulungiselela izimpahla ukuze bagweme umthwalo wokunyuka kwamanani esikhathi esimatasa kanye nemikhawulo yesikhala. Ukuthola ukuhlukaniswa kwe-HS ngaphambi kokuba imikhumbi yezimpahla ifike kunokuba ifike ngemva kokuba ifike kugwema uhlobo lwemithetho yamasiko eguqula ukuthunyelwa okujwayelekile kube yibhili yokunciphisa izindleko.
Yilapho-ke ukuba nomthengisi wezimpahla onolwazi olusekelwe eShayina kusiza khona. Kusukela ngo-2010, iTopway Shipping eseShenzhen ibilokhu ihilelekile ohlangothini lokusebenza lwezokuthutha oluwela imingcele iminyaka engaphezu kweyishumi nanhlanu, igxile ekuthuthweni nasekukhishweni kwezimpahla ezivela eShayina. Le nkampani inikeza izinsizakalo ezihlanganisa lonke uhlobo lokuthunyelwa oludingwa ngempela: ukuthuthwa kokuqala okuvela ezimbonini zaseShayina, izimpahla zasolwandle ze-FCL eziguquguqukayo kanye ne-LCL eziya emachwebeni amakhulu emhlabeni wonke kufaka phakathi amasango aseMexico asePacific, phesheya kwezilwandle. kugcinwa, ukwesekwa kokususwa kwempahla kanye nokulethwa kwempahla okuhamba ibanga elide uma impahla isifikile endaweni yayo yokugcina. Lolu hlobo lokumbozwa kusukela ekuqaleni kuze kube sekupheleni luvame ukuhlukanisa izindleko zokufika ezingalindelekile nokumangala okubizayo kwabangenisi abazama ukuzulazula ukuminyana eManzanillo, banqume phakathi kokuhlanganiswa kwe-LCL kanye nesitsha esigcwele, noma bamane babhukhe ukuthunyelwa ngesikhala sangempela esikhundleni sokuqinisekiswa kwephepha okugoqwa ngomzuzu wokugcina.
Ukuhlukanisa izindawo zokungena emachwebeni, ukugcina amadokhumenti akamuva okuqala, kanye nokuhlola ingcindezi ukuthi isinyathelo sokukhiqiza saseMexico ngempela siwushintsho olubalulekile ngaphansi kwe-USMCA akuseyona into enhle. Njengoba ukuphoqelelwa komthetho kuqina futhi ukubuyekezwa okuhlanganyelwe kuqhubeka, umehluko phakathi kokuthunyelwa okuphuma ngokushesha kanye nalokho okuphawulwe, okulibazisekayo noma okunezintela ezikhokhiswayo okungekho muntu obeke isabelomali sako.
Isiphetho
Umzila wokuthumela izimpahla osuka eShayina uye eMexico ulawulwa ngo-2026 ngemithetho ehambisanayo eyayingekho, noma eyayikhona ngesimo esibuthakathaka kakhulu, eminyakeni embalwa edlule: Imithetho yemvelaphi ye-USMCA, uhlelo olusha lwentela olungeyona i-FTA yaseMexico, ukuhlolwa kwe-US okulwa nokuvinjelwa, kanye nokubuyekezwa okuhlangene kwe-USMCA okungase kuphinde kubumbe konke ngaphambi kokuba unyaka uphele. Indlela esheshayo yokuchitha isabelomali sezindleko ezibekiwe ukuphatha noma iyiphi ingxenye yayo njengengaguquki - uma isilinganiso esicashunwe kwikota edlule sisamile, noma ukuthi isinyathelo sokuhlanganiswa saseMexico sinikeza ngokuzenzakalelayo imvelaphi. Namuhla, abangenisi abenza lokhu kahle kakhulu yibo abahlanganisa ulwazi lokuhambisana nomthetho olusha kakhulu nolunembile nabalingani bezokuthutha abangaletha ngempela umzila, amadokhumenti kanye nesikhathi ngesikhathi sangempela.
Imibuzo Evame Ukubuzwa
U: Ingabe i-NAFTA isasebenza kunoma iyiphi ingxenye yokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla eShayina kuya eMexico?
A: Cha, i-USMCA yathatha indawo ye-NAFTA ngoJulayi 2020. Izivumelwano azikaze zikhulume ngokusobala ngemikhiqizo evela eShayina. Zinquma ukuthi izimpahla ezenziwe noma ezishintshiwe eMexico zingathunyelwa yini ngaphandle kwentela e-United States noma eCanada.
U: Ingabe intela entsha yaseMexico iyasebenza ezimpahleni ezithunyelwa zivela e-US noma eCanada?
A: Lutho neze. Ukwenyuka kwentela okuzoqala ukusebenza ngoJanuwari 1, 2026 kungokwamazwe angenaso isivumelwano sokuhweba samahhala neMexico njengeShayina, iNdiya neVietnam. Abalingani be-USMCA abafakiwe.
U: Ngingakwazi yini ukuhambisa izimpahla zaseShayina eMexico ukuze ngifinyelele e-US ngaphandle kwentela?
A: Kuphela uma izimpahla zishintshiwe kakhulu eMexico ngendlela egcwalisa imithetho ye-USMCA yokuvela. Ukuhlanganiswa okulula noma ukupakisha kabusha akufanelekile. Ukuphoqelelwa kwalokhu kuyaqina ngaphambi kokubuyekezwa kwe-USMCA ka-2026.
Q: Yiliphi itheku laseMexico okufanele ngilisebenzise ukuze ngigweme ukubambezeleka?
A: Ngo-2026, iManzanillo isalokhu iyindlela enabantu abaningi kakhulu futhi ematasa kakhulu. I-Lázaro Cárdenas isetshenziswa kabanzi njengendlela yokuthutha izimpahla eziya enkabeni nasenyakatho yeMexico, ngenxa yezindawo zayo ezizenzakalelayo kanye nezixhumanisi zesitimela eziqondile.
Q: Kufanele ngibhukhe imithwalo yasolwandle eya eMexico kusenesikhathi esingakanani?
A: Njengoba kunemingcele yesikhala samanje kanye nengozi yokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla ngezikhathi ezimatasa, iningi labathumeli lingathi bhukha amasonto amathathu kuya kwamane ngaphambi kosuku lokulungiselela imithwalo yakho.
