China+1: Kodi Ogula aku Germany Akusunthadi Unyolo Wogulira Zinthu?
Introduction
"China+1" yakhalapo kwa nthawi yayitali kotero kuti ikhoza kukhala nkhani yofala. Iyi ndi njira yomwe imakambidwa kwambiri m'mabwalo amilandu ndi malipoti a upangiri kotero kuti kuigwiritsa ntchito kwenikweni nthawi zina kumatayika pakukambirana. Mfundo yaikulu ndi yosavuta: mabizinesi ayenera kuwonjezera dziko lina ku unyolo wawo wopereka kuti asadalire kwambiri unyolo umodzi wopereka katundu wochokera ku China. Cholinga chomwe chinali dongosolo lothandizira tsopano chakhala chofunikira kwambiri chifukwa cha nkhondo yamalonda pakati pa US ndi China, mliri wa COVID-19, komanso kusamvana komwe kukuchitika pakati pa mayiko.
Germany ili pamalo achilendo pakati pa mkanganowu. Dziko la ku Ulaya ndi lomwe limagwirizana kwambiri ndi China. Sikuti limagula zinthu zopangidwa ku China zokha, komanso limagulitsa zinthu zamafakitale, ndi kampani yayikulu yogulitsa zinthu ku China, ndipo lili ndi mafakitale akuluakulu (magalimoto, mankhwala, makina) omwe akhala akudalira kwambiri unyolo wopereka katundu ndi kufunikira kwa China kwa zaka khumi. Chifukwa chake, nkhani yokhudza kuchepetsa chiopsezo ndi kusiyanasiyana ikabuka, ndikofunikira kupeza yankho lochokera ku deta ya funso loti ngati ogula aku Germany akusunthadi osati kungolankhula za kusuntha.
Nkhaniyi ikuyang'ana zomwe umboni wa 2024 ndi 2025 ukuwonetsa. Yankho lake ndi lovuta kwambiri kuposa nkhani ya "makampani aku Germany akukakamira ku China" kapena nkhani ya "aliyense akusamukira ku Vietnam ndi India". Zonsezi ndi zoona pang'ono, ndipo chidziwitso chenicheni cha unyolo wogulitsa chimachokera pakudziwa kusiyana pakati pa ziwirizi.
Kukula kwa Kudalira kwa Germany ku China
Ndikofunikira kukhazikitsa maziko musanayese kupeza ngati kusintha kukuchitika. China ndiye bwenzi lalikulu kwambiri la Germany logula zinthu kunja, lomwe limapanga pafupifupi 10.9% ya zinthu zonse zomwe Germany imagula kunja, kapena pafupifupi €160 biliyoni pachaka. Kuchuluka kumeneku kuli kokulirapo kwambiri popanga zinthu, komwe China imapeza zida zambiri zamagetsi ndi zamagetsi, zida zolondola, ndi zinthu zapakati zamafakitale. Kwa makampani opanga magalimoto ku Germany okha, kupezeka kwa zida zogulira zinthu ku China kumayambira pa mawaya oyambira mpaka ma cell apamwamba a batri.
Pakati pa 2015 ndi 2023, katundu wochokera ku Germany wochokera ku China adakwera ndi zoposa 40%. Ndipo ubale wamalonda pakati pa mayiko awiriwa ukadali wofunika kwambiri: mu 2025, malonda onse pakati pa China ndi Germany adafika pa 1.51 trillion yuan (pafupifupi $217.8 biliyoni), kukwera ndi 5.2% pachaka. China idapezanso malo ake ngati bwenzi lalikulu kwambiri la malonda ku Germany chaka chimenecho, udindo womwe inali nawo kuyambira 2016 mpaka 2023 isanaposedwe ndi United States kwakanthawi mu 2024. Zinthu zamagetsi ndi zamagetsi zokha zidapanga 70.8% ya kuchuluka kwa malonda pakati pa mayiko awiriwa mu 2025.
| chizindikiro | Deta / Mkhalidwe |
| Gawo la China pa zinthu zochokera ku Germany (2024) | ~10.9% ya zinthu zonse zomwe zatumizidwa kunja, pafupifupi €160 biliyoni |
| Malonda apakati pa Germany ndi China (2025) | 1.51 trilioni yuan (~$217.8 biliyoni); +5.2% Chaka |
| Udindo wa China monga bwenzi la malonda la Germany (2025) | Mnzanu wamkulu kwambiri wochita malonda, wabwezedwanso pambuyo pa kusiyana kwa chaka chimodzi |
| Kugulitsa kwa FDI ku Germany ku China (Januware–Novembala 2025) | Yafika pamlingo wapamwamba wa zaka 4 |
| Kafukufuku wa Nyumba ya ku Germany: makampani omwe akukhala ku China (2024/25) | 92% ikukonzekera kupitiliza kugwira ntchito ku China |
| Makampani aku Germany akukonzekera kuwonjezera ndalama ku China | ~51% m'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi; 87% akunena kuti ali ndi mpikisano |
Ndalama zomwe Germany idayika ku China nthawi yomweyo zakhala zikuphwanya mbiri. Mu theka loyamba la chaka cha 2024, ndalama zomwe Germany idayika ku China zidafika pa €7.3 biliyoni - zomwe zidapangitsa Germany kukhala ndi udindo wopeza pafupifupi 65% ya ndalama zonse zakunja za EU ku China kuyambira 2022 mpaka pakati pa 2024. M'miyezi yotsatira, chiwerengerocho chidakwera kwambiri. Mu Novembala 2025, fakitale yayikulu yopanga zinthu ya BASF ku Zhanjiang, Guangdong, yomwe ndi ndalama yayikulu kwambiri ya kampaniyo padziko lonse lapansi, idayamba kupanga zinthu zake zoyambirira. Mercedes-Benz idayika $2 biliyoni popanga magalimoto atsopano amagetsi ku China. Volkswagen idagula magawo ambiri ku XPeng. Continental idayika €16 miliyoni pamalo atsopano ofufuzira ndi chitukuko ku Qingdao.
Germany sikuchoka ku China, makamaka mukayang'ana momwe ndalama zimayendera. Makampani akuluakulu opanga mafakitale ku Germany akhala akuwonjezeka kawiri, ngati pali chilichonse. Kafukufuku wa 2024/2025 Business Confidence Survey wochokera ku Germany Chamber of Commerce ku China adawonetsa kuti 92% ya makampani omwe ali mamembala akufuna kupitiliza kuchita bizinesi kumeneko. Pafupifupi theka la makampani amenewo akufuna kuyika ndalama zambiri m'zaka ziwiri zikubwerazi.
Chifukwa Chake China+1 Ikukonda Kwambiri
Ndizotheka kufotokoza vuto limeneli. Makampani akuluakulu aku Germany akhoza kukwanitsa kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri ku China ndikukulitsa mphamvu zoperekera zinthu m'malo ena nthawi imodzi. Koma kwa gulu lalikulu la makampani aku Germany apakatikati, makamaka opanga a Mittelstand omwe ndi maziko a chuma cha Germany, zachuma ndi zochepa. Ndipo ndi pakati pa gululi la makampani, omwe amapeza ndalama pakati pa €50 ndi €500 miliyoni ndipo nthawi zambiri amapeza katundu kuchokera kudziko limodzi lokha, pomwe kuganiza kwa China+1 ndiko komwe kumakhudza kwambiri momwe zinthu zimachitikira.
Oyendetsa magalimotowa ndi odziwika bwino, koma awonjezeka mu 2024 ndi 2025. Chisankho cha EU choyika mitengo pa magalimoto amagetsi omangidwa ku China mu Okutobala 2024 chinali sitepe yayikulu patsogolo pa mikangano yamalonda. Pamene mitengo yolowera ya ogulitsa aku China ikukwera, chifukwa cha mitengo yotumizidwa kunja yomwe boma limalimbikitsa komanso chifukwa cha zinthu zosayembekezereka, magulu ogula zinthu akuganizira kwambiri za mtengo wonse osati mtengo wa unit. Ndipo chiopsezo cha ku Taiwan—mwayi, ngakhale nthawi yake sichikudziwikabe, wa mkangano womwe ungalepheretse kupanga zinthu m'maiko onse aku East Asia—wasintha kuchoka pa kukhala kuganiza za geopolitical mpaka kukhala chinthu chomwe chiyenera kukambidwa m'chipinda cha misonkhano.
Palinso mbali ya mpikisano woopsa, yomwe siimalimbikitsidwa mokwanira pankhani zokhudzana ndi unyolo wogulitsa. Bungwe la Zamalonda linafunsa kampani iliyonse yaku Germany, ndipo onse anati kampani yaku China idzakhala yatsopano kwambiri m'munda wawo mkati mwa zaka zisanu. Izi ndi zoopsa pamsika, osati kungopeza zinthu zokha. Makampani omwe ayenera kupikisana ndi makampani aku China omwe akutseka kusiyana kwaukadaulo m'malo monga masensa, mapulogalamu, ndi owongolera ma domain ali ndi chifukwa chochepetsera mwayi wawo wopeza ndalama ku unyolo wogulitsa waku China, ngakhale atakhala kuti akupikisananso pamsika waku China.
Kodi “+1” Ikupita Kuti Kwenikweni?
Anthu ogula aku Germany akamafufuza magwero osiyanasiyana, malo omwe amapita si nthawi zonse amakhala ofanana ndipo amadalira katunduyo. Vietnam tsopano ndi malo otchuka kwambiri osonkhanitsira zamagetsi, nsalu, ndi zinthu zina zogulira. Pakati pa 2015 ndi 2023, malonda ochokera ku Germany ochokera ku Vietnam adakwera ndi 655%, kuchoka pa $430,000 kufika pa $3.2 miliyoni. Kutumiza kwa ma PCB ochokera ku Thailand kudakwera ndi 24% panthawi yomweyi. Manambalawa akadali ochepa poyerekeza ndi ndalama zochokera ku China, koma zomwe zikuchitikazi zikuonekeratu.
| Dziko Lopezera Zinthu | Kutumiza Zinthu ku Germany PCB mu 2015 | Kutumiza Zinthu ku Germany PCB mu 2023 | Change |
| Thailand | $ Miliyoni 68 | $ Miliyoni 85 | + 24% |
| Vietnam | $ Miliyoni 0.43 | $ Miliyoni 3.2 | + 655% |
| China | Wamkulu | Akadali wamphamvu | Kukhazikika kwakukulu koma kugawana kuli pansi pa kuyang'aniridwa |
Mbiri ya India ngati njira ina yakula kwambiri, makamaka m'magawo a mankhwala, zida za IT, ndi nsalu zina. Lingaliro la Apple loti 15–20% ya kupanga ma iPhone kupita ku India ndi Vietnam pofika chaka cha 2026, ndi ndalama zopitilira $1 biliyoni mu zopangira ku India, lawonetsa chidwi cha kukula kwa dzikolo, ngakhale kuti kuchuluka kwa unyolo woperekera zinthu sikuli bwino ngati kwa China. India ikukopa kwambiri akuluakulu ogulitsa zinthu aku Germany m'madera ena chifukwa imapereka malamulo okhwima mkati mwa dongosolo la EU lopezera mwayi wosankha malonda.
Komabe, Malaysia ndi gulu lake la semiconductor ndi lofunika kwambiri ku makampani a zamagetsi ndi mafakitale aku Germany. Anthu ambiri akuganiza kuti Indonesia ndi malo opangira zinthu zomwe zimafunikira zinthu zambiri komanso zida zoperekera magalimoto. Thailand ili ndi malo okhazikika osungira magalimoto omwe amapanga magalimoto opitilira mamiliyoni awiri pachaka. Izi zimapangitsa kuti ikhale malo oyenera kuti ogulitsa magalimoto aku Germany azifunafuna malo oti akulitse mphamvu za madera ena kunja kwa China. Mexico ndi yofunika kwambiri pamakampani ogulitsa zinthu ku US, koma tsopano ikukhala nkhani yokambirana m'mabizinesi aku Germany chifukwa kuyandikira kwa gombe kukusintha momwe anthu amaganizira za kayendedwe ka zinthu padziko lonse lapansi.
| Country | Zigawo Zofunika | Malipiro Apakati Opangira Zinthu motsutsana ndi China | Chiwopsezo Chachikulu |
| Vietnam | Zamagetsi, nsalu, nsapato | ~ 50% ya ku China | Kuwonongeka kwa mitengo ya US (44–49% kukuopsezedwa mu 2025); Kuwunika kwa kayendetsedwe ka katundu ku China |
| India | Mankhwala, zida za IT, nsalu | ~30–40% ya ku China | Mipata ya zomangamanga; malo ovuta olamulira |
| Malaysia | Ma semiconductor, zamagetsi | ~60–70% ya ku China | Gulu laling'ono la antchito; Kuwunika kwa US kotsutsa kusokoneza ma semiconductors |
| Indonesia | Nsalu, magalimoto, zinthu zina | ~40–50% ya ku China | Zomangamanga, zofunikira pa zinthu za m'deralo |
| Thailand | Magalimoto, zamagetsi, kukonza chakudya | ~55–65% ya ku China | Chiwopsezo cha kusakhazikika kwa ndale; 34% ya msonkho wa US wobwezera (2025) |
| Mexico | Zipangizo zamagalimoto, zamagetsi (pafupi ndi gombe) | ~50–60% ya ku China | Kuzama kochepa kwa mafakitale; Ndale zamalonda pakati pa US ndi Mexico |
Vuto: ASEAN Siyokha
Vuto lalikulu ndi nkhani yoyera ya China+1 ndikuti zinthu zambiri zomwe zimachokera ku Vietnam ndi malo ena aku Southeast Asia zimadalirabe kwambiri zinthu zomwe China imagwiritsa ntchito. Zinthu zamagetsi zomwe Vietnam imatumiza kunja, zomwe zidapitilira $100 biliyoni ndipo zidakwera ndi 48% mu 2025, makamaka zimapangidwa ndi zida zochokera ku China. Foxconn, Intel, ndi Samsung zonse zagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri ku Vietnam, koma China ikadali ndi zinthu zambiri zotsogola komanso zida zoperekera. Katswiri wina ananena mosapita m'mbali kuti makampani akusamutsa malo osonkhanitsira, osati unyolo woperekera.
Kusamvana kumeneku kwafotokozedwa momveka bwino ndi mfundo zamalonda za ku US. Kafukufuku wotsutsana ndi kusokoneza mabizinesi a dzuwa ndi aluminiyamu omwe ali ku China ku Vietnam ndi Thailand watumiza uthenga ku makampani omwe amagwiritsa ntchito ASEAN ngati njira yoyendera China m'malo mongogwiritsa ntchito njira ina yeniyeni. Pamene ogula aku Germany akuganiza zogula zinthu kuchokera ku Vietnam kapena Malaysia, ayenera kuganizira zambiri osati ndalama zomwe zilipo pakadali pano. Ayeneranso kuganizira za njira zoyendetsera malamulo, makamaka ngati akuluakulu a EU kapena US angaone katundu wopangidwa kuchokera kuzinthu zambiri zaku China ngati wochokera ku China.
Zoona Zenizeni: Zimene Makampani Akuluakulu Aku Germany Akuchitadi
Makampani akuluakulu a mafakitale ku Germany onse akuwoneka kuti akutsatira dongosolo lomweli: akukulitsa ntchito zawo ku China kuti akwaniritse zosowa za anthu kumeneko, pomwe akusankha njira zopezera mphamvu kunja kwa China kuti akwaniritse zosowa za anthu kumeneko. Izi nthawi zambiri zimatchedwa "China for China," yomwe ndi njira yopezera malo yomwe imateteza ntchito zaku China ku mavuto andale poonetsetsa kuti zitha kugwira ntchito zokha. Nthawi yomweyo, imachepetsa kuchuluka kwa katundu wopita ku Germany womwe umadutsa m'malo aku China.
| Company | Makampani | Kusamuka Kwaposachedwa ku China | Ntchito Yosiyanasiyana |
| Volkswagen | magalimoto | Ndalama zokwana $700 miliyoni mu XPeng; kupanga limodzi magalimoto awiri a EV mu 2026 | Kufufuza msonkhano wa ASEAN wa misika yosakhala ya China |
| BASF | mankhwala | Zhanjiang integrated facility yayambitsa kupanga mu Novembala 2025 | Imasunga chizindikiro cha kupanga padziko lonse lapansi |
| Mercedes-Benz | magalimoto | Ndalama zokwana $2B mu mitundu ya magalimoto amagetsi aku China (2025–2027) | India JV ya msika wakomweko |
| Continental | Zida zamagalimoto | Malo ofufuza ndi chitukuko a €16M ku Qingdao (2024–2025) | Kusankha zinthu ku Southeast Asia kuti zigwiritsidwe ntchito osati ku China |
| Infineon | Semiconductors | Kulimbitsa mgwirizano wa China | Malo odziwika bwino ku Malaysia akadali likulu lopanga zinthu osati ku China |
| Bosch | Industrial | Kuchulukitsa kawiri kuchuluka kwa makampani opanga zinthu ku China omwe akupezeka ku China | Kukulitsa maziko opanga zinthu ku India |
Bosch ndi ZF Friedrichshafen, awiri mwa ogulitsa zida zamagalimoto akuluakulu ku Germany, akhala akukulitsa bizinesi yawo ku China komanso kuthekera kwawo kopereka zida kunja kwa China nthawi imodzi. Lingaliro ndilakuti makampani opanga zida zamagalimoto aku China, omwe akukulitsa kulamulira msika padziko lonse lapansi ndikuyamba kutumiza kuchokera ku China, akukhala makasitomala ofunikira kwambiri kwa ogulitsa aku Germany a tier-one. Kuti muwatumikire, muyenera kukhala ku China. Koma kuti mutumikire makampani opanga zida zamagalimoto aku Europe kapena North America omwe akuchepetsanso zoopsa zawo, mukufunika malo ogulitsira zida kunja kwa China. Chifukwa chake ogulitsa aku Germany omwewo akhoza kukula ku Suzhou komanso kupeza ogulitsa atsopano ku Pune.
Hermann Simon, katswiri wazachuma waku Germany yemwe adabwera ndi lingaliro la Hidden Champions, adati: Ndalama zaku China, makamaka mu kafukufuku ndi chitukuko, zikuwonetsa kuti zimayamikira kwambiri luso la atsogoleri aku Germany a Mittelstand, osati kuti akukakamira m'njira zawo. "China sikuti ikugwira ntchito zatsopano zokha, komanso ikutsogolera kale m'magawo ambiri," adatero kwa Xinhua paulendo wake wa Marichi 2025. Izi zikutanthauza kuti makampani omwe akukhalabe ndi ndalama zambiri ku China sakupewa chiopsezo; akuganiza kuti mtengo wosachita nawo ndi wokwera kuposa mtengo wopitiliza nawo.
"Kutopa ndi Kusinthasintha kwa Zinthu": Chifukwa Chake Makampani Ena Aku Germany Akuchoka pa Ndondomeko ya +1
Chimodzi mwa zinthu zosangalatsa kwambiri kuchokera ku kafukufuku waposachedwa ndi chomwe Rhodium Group idatcha "kutopa kwa kusiyanasiyana" pakati pa atsogoleri amalonda aku Germany. Pambuyo poyang'ana misika ina m'zaka zingapo zapitazi, atsogoleri ambiri amalonda aku Germany adaganiza kuti palibe dziko lina lomwe lingapikisane ndi China pankhani ya ndalama, kuchuluka kwa unyolo woperekera zinthu, zomangamanga, ndi chilengedwe cha mafakitale. Makampani ena omwe adayambitsa njira zoyesera za China+1 ku Vietnam kapena India achepetsa mwakachetechete izi atapeza kuti mtundu, nthawi yoperekera zinthu, kapena kupezeka kwa zida sizinafike pamlingo womwe makasitomala awo amayembekezera.
Izi sizili choncho pa zinthu zonse; zimasiyana kwambiri pa mtundu wa chinthucho komanso komwe wogula ali mu unyolo wamtengo wapatali. Sitolo yogulira zovala ku Germany yomwe imagula nsalu imatha kusintha zinthu zaku China ndi zinthu zaku Vietnam kapena Bangladesh. Kampani yaku Germany yomwe imapanga zida zamakina ndipo imafuna zida zoyezera kapena zida zololera kwambiri ili ndi zosankha zochepa zomwe zingagwirizane ndi zofunikira pamtengo wabwino. Gawo lopangidwa likakhala lovuta kwambiri, ogulitsa omwe si aku China ndi ochepa omwe angapereke.
Mkhalidwe wa ndale wasinthanso m'njira zomwe zimapangitsa kuti nkhani yosavuta yochotsa chiopsezo ikhale yovuta kufotokoza. Mu 2024, Chancellor wa Germany Olaf Scholz anapita ku Beijing. Kuyambira pamenepo, wolowa m'malo mwake wakhala akusunga malonda ngati chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pa mfundo zakunja. Akatswiri ena azachuma aku Germany ayambanso kutcha China kuti ndi bwenzi lodalirika lamalonda, zomwe n'zachilendo chifukwa njira yamalonda ya boma la Trump ya 2025 yapangitsa kuti mitengo ya US isadziwike bwino ndipo yapangitsa kuti mgwirizano wamalonda waku US uwoneke wosakhazikika. Njira yogulira zinthu sigwira ntchito pandale. Chifukwa mfundo zamalonda zaku US sizikhazikika, ogula ena aku Germany sakufuna kukhazikitsa njira zogulira zinthu zomwe zimagwirizana ndi US.
Kusamalira Kusinthaku: Zimene Ogwirizana ndi Zamalonda Abweretsa ku China+1 Kugwira Ntchito
Kwa mabizinesi omwe asintha kuchokera pakukonzekera kupita ku kuchita china chake ku China+1, gawo la mayendedwe ndi komwe kuli pachiwopsezo chachikulu. Mukalandira katundu kuchokera ku China ndi Vietnam kapena China ndi India, kutumiza ndi kasitomu kumakhala kovuta kwambiri. Muyenera kuthana ndi ma bill angapo onyamula katundu, njira zosiyanasiyana zotsatirira malamulo, nthawi yayitali yoyenerera ogulitsa, komanso kuyerekeza ndalama pa unit iliyonse m'njira zosiyanasiyana zoyendetsera katundu ndi zonyamula katundu.
Topway Shipping, yomwe yakhala ikugwira ntchito kuyambira mu 2010 ndipo ili ku Shenzhen, yakhazikitsa kampani yake pamalo omwewo. Gulu loyambitsa kampaniyo lili ndi zaka zoposa 15 zokumana nazo pantchito yotumiza katundu padziko lonse lapansi komanso kutumiza katundu kuchokera ku China. Ndi akatswiri pa njira zotumizira katundu kudzera pa intaneti. Kwa makampani omwe amagwiritsa ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana zopezera katundu, monga kusuntha katundu womalizidwa kuchokera kwa ogulitsa aku China komanso kupanga njira ina yaku Vietnam, kapena kuthana ndi kuchuluka kwa kufunikira kwa zinthu zomwe zimafunikira kusakaniza kwa ndege, sitima, ndi sitima zapamadzi, Topway ili ndi chidziwitso chopitiliza kugwira ntchito komanso kutsatira malamulo omwe makampani ambiri amafunikira.
Ntchito za Topway zimaphimba unyolo wonse wa katundu, kuyambira gawo loyamba la mayendedwe kuchokera ku fakitale kapena nyumba yosungiramo katundu yamkati mpaka doko lochokera, mpaka kumayiko akunja. kuwuza m'malo ofunikira operekera katundu ku Europe ndi North America, mpaka kuchotsera katundu wa katundu wa pa kasitomu komwe umachokera komanso komwe ukupita, ndipo potsiriza mpaka kufika pa katundu womaliza. Kampaniyo imaperekanso ntchito zosinthira za FCL (full-container-load) ndi LCL (less-than-container-load) kuchokera ku China kupita ku madoko akuluakulu padziko lonse lapansi. Izi ndizothandiza makamaka kwa ogulitsa omwe kuchuluka kwawo kuchokera ku China sikunatsike kwambiri, koma omwe maoda awo asintha—maoda ang'onoang'ono, obwerezabwereza pamene kasamalidwe ka zinthu kakukhala kovuta. Kwa makasitomala aku Germany omwe akufunadi kuyang'anira malo operekera katundu ku China+1, kukhala ndi mnzanu wothandizana naye yemwe amadziwa zambiri za momwe zinthu zimagwirira ntchito ku China—m'malo mongoona China ngati malo amodzi okha pakati pa ambiri—kumawapatsa mwayi weniweni wogwirira ntchito.
Kodi Ogula aku Germany Ayenera Kuchita Chiyani Kwenikweni?
Yankho loona mtima ndilakuti China+1 si njira imodzi yokha yothanirana ndi mavuto onse. Ndi njira yomwe iyenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito pa gulu lililonse, poganizira za kukhwima kwa unyolo wogulira wa chinthu chilichonse m'maiko ena, kufunitsitsa kwa wogula kutenga chiopsezo chosintha, ndi kapangidwe ka mtengo wa chinthu chomwe chikukambidwacho. Magulu ogula omwe amagwiritsa ntchito njira yowunikira zoopsa kuti ayerekezere mwayi wawo wonse wopezera zinthu m'malo mongoyesa "kuchepetsa China kufika pa X%" nthawi zambiri amapeza njira zothandiza kwambiri zochitira zinthu.
Kusiyanasiyana kwachangu kumagwira ntchito bwino pazinthu zomwe zili ndi makhalidwe ena ofanana: zimakhala ndi ntchito yambiri kuziyika pamodzi (zomwe zimapangitsa kuti malipiro a arbitrage akhale oyenera), ndi zovuta pang'ono koma sizidalira kwathunthu magulu a mafakitale aku China, ndipo ali pachiwopsezo cha mitengo yamtengo wapatali pamsika wawo womaliza kapena paulendo wawo wopita kuzinthu. Nsalu, kuphatikiza zamagetsi, zida zina zapulasitiki, mipando, ndi zida zamagetsi wamba zonse zili mgululi. Njira zina zochokera ku Vietnam, India, ndi Malaysia ndizokhwima mokwanira kuti zithandizire njira zazikulu zopezera zinthu m'magawo awa.
Pa katundu amene amadalira zachilengedwe zakuya za mafakitale ku China, monga ma castings olondola, mankhwala apadera, ndi zamagetsi apamwamba, komwe kufalikira kwa zinthu ku China sikungasinthidwe nthawi yayitali mpaka yapakatikati, njira yothandiza kwambiri ndi uinjiniya wokhazikika mkati mwa China. Izi zikutanthauza kumanga katundu wotetezeka, ogulitsa ena aku China oyenerera, kusinthasintha mkati mwa maziko opanga zinthu m'chigawo cha China, ndikukonza mapangano kuti mitengo ikhale yomveka bwino panthawi yamavuto. Monga momwe akatswiri ambiri adanenera, zingatenge zaka zambiri ndipo zimawononga ndalama zambiri kuposa zomwe zimafunika tsopano kuti amangenso maunyolo ogulitsa kunja kwa China. Muyenera kusinthana moona mtima, osati kungonyalanyaza.
Kutsiliza
Kodi ogula aku Germany akusinthadi njira zawo zogulira zinthu? Yankho ndi ili: mwa kusankha, mwadala, komanso mosasinthasintha kwambiri monga momwe nkhani yaikulu imanenera. Makampani akuluakulu aku Germany akupanga ndalama zambiri ku China pomwe nthawi yomweyo akumanga mphamvu zawo zomwe si za ku China. Izi si zotsutsana; ndi njira yodzitetezera m'misika yonse iwiri. Makampani a Mittelstand akufalikira m'malo ena komwe kuli njira zabwino kale, koma akusiya kuyesa kusiyanasiyana m'malo omwe palibe njira zabwino pakadali pano. Ndipo atsogoleri ambiri amalonda aku Germany afika potsimikiza kuti palibe njira ina yomwe imapereka kuphatikiza kwa China kwa kukula, kuzama kwa chilengedwe, komanso njira zodalirika zoyendetsera zinthu—osachepera pano.
Mmene timaganizira zinthu zikusintha kwambiri. Ogula aku Germany ankaona China ngati chinthu chosasinthika, koma tsopano akufunsa funsoli mwachangu. Uku ndi kusintha, ngakhale kuti zomwe zikubwerazi ndi zazing'ono. Ma unyolo ogulitsa omwe akupangidwa ku Vietnam, India, ndi Malaysia pakadali pano ndi njira zoyamba zosinthira zomwe zingatenge zaka khumi, osati miyezi itatu. Kukwera kwa 655% kwa zinthu zomwe zimagulidwa ku Germany kuchokera ku Vietnam pakati pa 2015 ndi 2023 ndi chizindikiro, koma sichinasinthe kwenikweni.
Kwa makampani okonza zinthu, opanga, ndi magulu ogula zinthu omwe akugwira ntchito m'malo amenewa, luso lofunika kwambiri si kusankha zotsatira zamtsogolo—China cholamulira kapena ASEAN—koma kukhala wokhoza kugwira ntchito zonse ziwiri pamene ndalama zikusintha pang'onopang'ono komanso mosayembekezereka. Pamenepo ndi pomwe ntchito yogulitsa zinthu idzachitika kwa zaka zingapo zikubwerazi.
Ibibazo
Q: Kodi njira yeniyeni ya China+1 ndi iti kwenikweni?
A: China+1 ndi njira yowonjezera dziko lina limodzi ku mayiko ena, makamaka Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, kapena Mexico, kuti lilimbikitse kulimba kwa unyolo wopereka katundu komanso kuchepetsa chiopsezo cha dziko.
Q: Kodi makampani aku Germany akuchepetsa kudalira kwawo China mu 2024-2025?
A: Si onse. Makampani akuluakulu a mafakitale ku Germany akuyika ndalama zambiri ku China pomwe akuwonjezeranso mphamvu zawo m'maiko ena. Zinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa ku Germany kupita ku Vietnam ndi misika ina ya ASEAN zikukula m'magulu ena azinthu, monga ma PCB, nsalu, ndi ma electronics. Kusinthaku kukuchedwa kwambiri pazinthu zamafakitale zomwe zimafuna ndalama zambiri.
Q: Ndi mayiko ati omwe ali ndi mwayi wabwino kwambiri wosankha China+1 kwa ogula aku Europe?
A: Vietnam ndi malo abwino kwambiri opangira zinthu zamagetsi ndi nsalu chifukwa cha mtengo wotsika komanso zomangamanga zakunja zomwe zilipo (FDI). India ikupita patsogolo popanga mankhwala ndi zida zamakompyuta. Ma semiconductor ndi malo abwino kwambiri ku Malaysia. Thailand ndi malo abwino ogulira zida zamagalimoto. Chisankho choyenera chimadalira kwambiri mtundu wa chinthucho komanso momwe unyolo wogulira zinthu ulili wokhwima m'dera lililonse.
Q: Kodi 'kutopa kwa kusiyanasiyana' pakati pa makampani aku Germany n'chiyani?
A: Akuluakulu ena aku Germany omwe adayang'ana misika ina adafika poganiza kuti palibe dziko lina lomwe lili ndi kuphatikiza kofanana kwa mitengo yotsika, chilengedwe champhamvu cha mafakitale, kayendetsedwe ka zinthu kodalirika, komanso kukula kwakukulu ngati China. Anthu ena adayenera kuchepetsa zolinga zawo zosinthira zinthu, makamaka pankhani ya zida zovuta zomwe zimapangidwa pomwe njira zina sizingafanane ndi miyezo yaubwino kapena kuchuluka kwa zinthu.
Q: Kodi Topway Shipping ingathandize bwanji makampani omwe amayang'anira zinthu zaku China+1?
A: Topway Shipping imapereka ntchito zonse zokhudzana ndi kayendetsedwe ka katundu, kuphatikizapo mayendedwe oyamba, kuchotsera katundu wa katundu wa pa kasitomu, kusungira katundu kunja kwa dziko, ndi kutumiza katundu kumapeto. Topway ndi mnzawo wabwino wa mabungwe omwe ali ndi unyolo wopereka katundu wochokera ku China ndi misika ina chifukwa ili ndi chidziwitso chambiri pa kayendetsedwe ka katundu ku China ndipo imapereka njira zina zosinthira zonyamula katundu wa panyanja za FCL/LCL.
