Ukuthunyelwa Okuluhlaza Okuvela eShayina: Ingabe Imizila Eqhubekayo Ibiza Kakhulu Ngo-2026?
Isingeniso
Buza noma yimuphi umphathi wezimpahla othenga eShayina ngo-2026 ukuthi ukuthunyelwa "okuluhlaza" kusasho yini i-niche add-on, futhi impendulo isishintshile. Lokho okwakuyibhokisi lokuhlola lokumaketha kwezinsizakalo ezimbalwa zaselwandle ezisezingeni eliphezulu manje sekuyingxenye yesakhiwo cishe kuzo zonke izilinganiso zezimpahla ezisuka eShenzhen, eShanghai, eNingbo, noma eQingdao. Izingxoxo ze-Net-Zero Framework ze-International Maritime Organisation, i-Emissions Trading System ye-European Union efakwe ngokugcwele esigabeni, kanye negagasi lamandla amasha okugcina i-green-methanol ogwini lwaseShayina konke kuhlangane ngesikhathi esifanayo sezinyanga eziyishumi nambili, futhi abathumeli bayakuzwa ekubalweni kwabo kwezindleko zokufika.
Umbuzo osesihlokweni awudingi ukukhuluma. Lona umbuzo abathengi, abathumeli bezimpahla, kanye nabathengisi be-e-commerce abawubuza ozakwabo bezokuthutha kulo nyaka: ingabe ukuhambisa impahla ngendlela ekhipha ukungcola okuncane, umkhumbi osebenzisa uphethiloli ophindwe kabili, noma inkampani yokuthutha enerekhodi eliqinile lokuthobela imithetho empeleni kubiza kakhulu kunendlela evamile, noma ingabe igebe seliqalile ukuvala? Lesi sihloko sixoxa ngalokho okushintshile ngo-2026, ukuthi izinombolo zangempela zibukeka kanjani ngendlela, nokuthi abathumeli bezimpahla besuka eShayina balungisa kanjani isu labo lokuthola impahla kanye nelokuthutha ngenxa yalokho.
Kuhle ukusho kusengaphambili ukuthi ayikho impendulo eyodwa esebenza kubo bonke abathumeli. Umthengisi omkhulu we-FCL othutha izinto zikagesi ezivela eShenzhen ukuya eRotterdam ubhekene nesakhiwo sezindleko esihluke kakhulu kunomkhiqizo omncane we-e-commerce ohlanganisa impahla ye-LCL esikhungweni sokugcwalisa sase-US, futhi igebe phakathi kwentengo "eluhlaza" kanye "nejwayelekile" libukeka lihlukile futhi kuye ngokuthi yimuphi umthethonqubo, yiliphi i-port pair, kanye nokuthi yiliphi izinga likaphethiloli elisetshenziswayo. Okunye kwalesi sihloko kuzama ukuhlukanisa lezo ziguquguquko kunokuba zihlukaniswe zibe inombolo eyodwa yesihloko.
Ukuguquka Kwendlela Yokuthumela Izinto Ezweni LaseShayina
Izindlela ezintathu zokulawula ezihambisanayo zenza umsebenzi omningi ngemuva kwezingxoxo zezindleko zalo nyaka. Eyokuqala yi-EU Emissions Trading System, efinyelele ukumbozwa okugcwele kokukhishwa kwegesi okungu-100% kokuthunyelwa olwandle ngoJanuwari 1, 2026, kusuka ku-40% ngo-2024 kanye no-70% ngo-2025. Ububanzi buphinde banda ngale kwe-carbon dioxide ukuze kufakwe i-methane ne-nitrous oxide, okusho ukuthi ingxenye enkulu yephrofayili yokukhishwa kwegesi okuphelele komkhumbi manje inentengo. Izinkampani ezithwala imikhumbi ezikhonza imizila yaseShayina eya eYurophu ziphendule ngokunyusa izindleko zokukhishwa kwegesi kakhulu, kanti imigqa eminingana emikhulu iphakamisa amazinga ngo-40 kuya ku-50% uma kuqhathaniswa namazinga ka-2025.
Ithrekhi yesibili yiFuelEU Maritime, eyaqala ukusebenza ngoJanuwari 2025 futhi isebenza ngendlela ehlukile ohlelweni lokuhweba ngentengo kanye nokuhweba. Esikhundleni sokubeka amanani ngqo ekukhiqizweni komoya, ibeka umkhawulo wokuncipha kwamandla egesi ebamba ukushisa kaphethiloli umkhumbi owushisayo, lapho ukuqinisekiswa kokuqala kanye nokubika izinsuku zokugcina kufika ekuqaleni kuka-2026. Imikhumbi ephuthelwa umgomo wokuqina ikhokhisa inhlawulo, futhi lezo zindleko zibekwe phezu kwenkokhelo eyengeziwe ye-EU ETS, hhayi esikhundleni sayo.
Ithrekhi yesithathu iwumhlaba wonke kunokuba ibe yesifunda. Uhlaka lwe-IMO lwe-Net-Zero, olwakhiwe ngesilinganiso se-GHG Fuel Intensity kanye nendlela yokubala evuselelwe kahle, ekuqaleni kwakuhlelelwe ukuthi lusetshenziswe ngasekupheleni kuka-2025 kodwa lwahlehliswa ngemuva kokuba amazwe angamalungu ehlulekile ukuvumelana ngendlela yokubeka amanani. I-China, kanye neBrazil, iSaudi Arabia, kanye neNingizimu Afrika, ithande indlela yesitayela se-cap-and-trade kune-flat per-tonne levy esekelwa amanye amazwe angaba angamashumi ayisithupha, futhi kwahlelwa imihlangano emibili eyengeziwe ngo-2026 ukuze kugcinwe ingxoxo iqhubekela ekuqaleni kokusebenza kuka-2027.
Lokho Okushiwo “Ukusimama” Empeleni Esilinganisweni Sezimpahla ZaseShayina
Abathumeli bezwa igama elithi “green” lisetshenziswa kalula, ngakho-ke kusiza ukuhlukanisa lokho okukhokhelwayo ngempela. Umzila oqhubekayo ngo-2026 ngokuvamile uhilela okukodwa noma ngaphezulu kwalokhu okulandelayo: umkhumbi oshisa uphethiloli onekhabhoni ephansi njenge-bio-methanol, i-bio-LNG, noma i-methanol eluhlaza ekhiqizwa ngaphakathi eShayina; inkampani ethwala isilinganiso sayo se-Carbon Intensity Indicator esigcina iphephile emikhawulweni yesivinini noma ezibophweni zokulungisa kabusha; noma ukukhetha umzila okunciphisa isikhathi esichithwa ngaphakathi kobubanzi be-EU ETS, njengoba inkokhelo eyengeziwe ibalwa ebangeni umkhumbi ohamba ngalo ngaphakathi kwendawo yomthetho kunokuba ohambweni lonke.
Akukho neyodwa yalezi zinto eziwubuhle. Umkhumbi oshisa i-methanol eluhlaza ekusakazeni kwamanani kaphethiloli namuhla udonsa umehluko wangempela wezindleko ongathwalwa uwoyela kaphethiloli ovamile, futhi lowo mehluko ekugcineni ubonakala endaweni ethile esilinganisweni sempahla, kungaba njenge-premium ehlanganisiwe noma umugqa ohlukile we-green fuel surcharge.
Igebe Langempela Lezindleko: Imizila Eluhlaza Uma Iqhathaniswa Neyejwayelekile
Impendulo eqotho yombuzo oyinhloko ithi: yebo, imizila eqhubekayo isabiza kakhulu ngo-2026, kodwa iprimiyamu ayisafani, futhi kwezinye izindlela iyancipha ngokushesha kunokulindelekile. Idatha yentengo kaphethiloli evela eSingapore, isikhungo esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni sokumba imigodi, ikhombisa igebe eliyisisekelo ngokusobala. Uphethiloli wesulfure ophansi kakhulu ubelokhu uhweba cishe ngo-$913 ngethani ngalinye, kuyilapho i-methanol eqhubekayo engu-100% icashunwe cishe ngo-$1,964 ngethani elilingana ne-VLSFO - okungaphezu kokuphindwe kabili. Lokho kusabalala yisona sizathu esikhulu kunazo zonke esenza ukuthi amaprimiyamu aluhlaza aqhubeke ngisho noma ingcindezi yokulawula isunduzela abathwali kuphethiloli ohlanzekile.
| Izindleko Driver | Umzila Ojwayelekile (2026) | Umzila Oluhlaza / Ohambisanayo (2026) |
| Isilinganiso sikaphethiloli (ngethani, okulingana ne-VLSFO) | ~US$913 (VLSFO) | ~US$1,964 (100% i-methanol eluhlaza) |
| Inkokhelo eyengeziwe ye-EU ETS, e-Asia–eNyakatho Yurophu (40ft) | N/A (imilenze engeyona eye-EU) | ~US$168 ngesitsha ngasinye (isilinganiso, 6–7% wesilinganiso sesisekelo) |
| Isengezo sekhabhoni se-LCL (ngokwe-CBM ngayinye, eboshwe yi-EU) | Imithwalo eyisisekelo kuphela | US$5–US$8 (kusuka ku-US$3–US$5 ngo-2025) |
| I-Green corridor premium (insizakalo ye-methanol ezinikele) | - | 12–18% ngaphezu kwezindleko zikaphethiloli ezivamile |
| Iphansi elingaphezulu eliluhlaza okwesitsha (ngesitsha ngasinye, yonke imizila) | - | US$150–US$400 kuye ngomzila |
Lokho ithebula elingakutholi ngokugcwele ingozi yesikhathi. Amanani esibonelelo sekhabhoni se-EU ngokwawo ayashintshashintsha, njengoba iDeutsche Bank ibikezela uhla lokuhweba lwango-2026 olungaba ngu-€60 kuya ku-€150 ngethani, ngakho-ke inkokhelo eyengeziwe evalelwe esilinganisweni ngoJanuwari ingabonakala ilinganisela noma inolaka ngekota yesithathu kuye ngokuthi imakethe yekhabhoni ye-EU ihamba kanjani. Abathumeli abaphatha iprimiyamu eluhlaza njengenombolo ehleliwe kuneyokuntanta bavame ukuba yibo ababanjwa bengalindele ngokuvuselelwa kwenkontileka.
Ukwanda Kokubuthwa Kwezikebhe eShayina: IShanghai, iNingbo-Zhoushan, kanye neNew Green Corridors
Enye yezinguquko ezingabikwa kakhulu ngo-2026 ukuthi iShayina yakha ngokushesha kangakanani amandla ayo okugcina uphethiloli oluhlaza, okuqala ukushintsha isibalo sezindleko kusukela ohlangothini lokuphakelwa kunokuba ohlangothini lokulawula. I-Yangshan Port yaseShanghai isibe yindawo ehamba phambili emhlabeni yokubeka uphethiloli oluhlaza oluhlaza, njengoba ihlinzeke ngamathani angaba ngu-36,000 kusukela ekusebenzeni kwayo kokuqala ngo-Ephreli 2024. Ngo-Agasti 2026, leli chweba labeka irekhodi elisha lomhlaba wonke ngokugcina uphethiloli oluhlaza okhiqizwa ngaphakathi ongamathani angu-8,016 emkhunjini owodwa we-CMA CGM osebenzisa uphethiloli ophindwe kabili emsebenzini owodwa - isikali esasingeke sicatshangelwe eminyakeni emibili edlule.
Ichweba iNingbo-Zhoushan, ichweba elikhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni elinomthamo wemithwalo, alikho ngemuva kakhulu. Laqeda indawo yalo yokuqala yokubeka i-methanol eluhlaza enqamula imikhumbi ngo-Ephreli 2026 futhi kusukela lapho lisayine isivumelwano neHAROPA PORT yaseFrance sokuthuthukisa umzila wokuthumela izimpahla oluhlaza ozinikele phakathi kwalezi zindawo ezimbili. Ngemuva kwalezi zindawo zombili kuhleli uhlelo olusekelwa nguhulumeni, oluvunywe yiminyango kahulumeni eyishumi ephakathi, oluhlose amamitha ayizigidi eziyi-cubic angumthamo we-LNG ohlanganisiwe kanye namathani ayizigidi eziyi-1 e-methanol ehlanganisiwe kanye ne-biofuel bunkering ngo-2030.
Kwabathumeli, umphumela osebenzayo ukuthi uphethiloli oluhlaza sekulula ukuwuthola ngaphakathi ezweni kunokuba uwuthole kuphela ngamanethiwekhi ase-Europe noma aseSingapore, okuzothi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kunciphise ukusabalala kwentengo kaphethiloli okuholela iningi lentengo eluhlaza okwamanje. Lowo mphumela awukafinyeleli ngokugcwele emazingeni okuthutha impahla okwamanje, kodwa ingqalasizinda eyakhiwayo kulo nyaka iyisisekelo sawo.
Abathumeli be-LCL kanye nemikhiqizo emincane: Lapho ukucindezelwa kubuhlungu khona kakhulu
Abathumeli be-container egcwele bangamunca noma baxoxisane ngezindleko zokukhishwa komoya kalula kunabathengisi be-e-commerce abancane nabaphakathi abathembele ekuhlanganisweni komthwalo ongaphansi kwesitsha ukuze bafinyelele ezindaweni zokugcina impahla ze-Amazon FBA, ama-3PL, noma izikhungo zokugcwalisa zaphesheya kwezilwandle. Izengezo ze-LCL carbon zempahla eboshelwe e-EU zikhuphuke zafika cishe ku-$5 kuya ku-$8 nge-cubic meter ngo-2026, zisuka ku-$3 kuya ku-$5 ngonyaka odlule, futhi ngenxa yokuthi imithwalo ye-LCL isivele inentengo ngeyunithi ngayinye yevolumu kunesitsha ngasinye, lokho kwandisa intengo yeyunithi ngendlela okunzima ukuyinciphisa kuyo yonke i-oda elikhulu.
Lolu uhlobo kanye lokucindezeleka olungasiza umlingani wezokuthutha onesipiliyoni esijulile sokuhlanganiswa kwezimpahla. I-Topway Shipping, enendlunkulu yayo eShenzhen kusukela ngo-2010, yakhe ibhizinisi layo lezokuthutha nge-e-commerce eliwela imingcele kule ngxenye yemakethe, ihlanganisa imithwalo ye-FCL ne-LCL yolwandle eguquguqukayo esuka eShayina iye emachwebeni amakhulu emhlabeni jikelele kanye nokuthuthwa kwempahla kokuqala, izimpahla zaphesheya kwezilwandle , ukususwa kwempahla yamasiko, kanye nokulethwa kwempahla okuhamba ibanga elide ngaphansi kophahla olulodwa. Kubathengisi abazama ukuthola ukuthi inkokhelo eluhlaza emzileni othile ifanelekile noma ikhuphukile, ukuba ne-forwarder engabonisa izinketho zomzila kanye nokuhlanganiswa eziyisisekelo - kunokuba imane idlule kunoma yini ecashunwa yinkampani eyodwa - kuvame ukuba nendaba ngaphezu kokuphishekela izinga eliphansi kakhulu lesihloko.
Lolo hlobo lokubonakala lubaluleke kakhulu uma indawo yokugcina impahla kwamanye amazwe isingena. Ukuthunyelwa okuhlanza amasiko kahle futhi kufike endaweni yokugcina impahla kwamanye amazwe ebekwe kahle kungamunca iprimiyamu eluhlaza yempahla yolwandle elula kakhulu kunaleyo ebhajwa ekubambezelekeni kwamaloli angaphakathi ezweni noma izithiyo zokugcina, ngoba ukuqhathaniswa kwezindleko zokufika kufanele kufake lonke uchungechunge, hhayi nje umlenze wolwandle. Lokhu kuyingxenye yesizathu esenza abathumeli abanikeza ukuthunyelwa kokuqala, ukuthunyelwa olwandle, ukususwa kwamasiko, ukugcinwa kwempahla, kanye nokulethwa kwemayela lokugcina njengoba isevisi eyodwa ehlanganisiwe ivame ukunikeza abathumeli isithombe esicacile sokuthi iprimiyamu eluhlaza ifanele ukukhokhwa kuphi.
Ukubika kwe-ESG Kwengeza Ungqimba Lwesibili Lokucindezela
Izindleko ezengeziwe zekhabhoni akuzona zodwa ezicindezela abathumeli ukuba bathathe izinqumo zokuhambisa ngendlela eluhlaza. Ukubika kokukhishwa kwe-Scope 3 - isigaba esihlanganisa uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka lwenkampani kanye nokukhishwa kwempahla esikhundleni sokusebenza kwayo ngqo - sekuba yimpoqo ezinkampanini ezinkulu kulo lonke elaseSingapore, e-Australia, eShayina, eHong Kong, naseMalaysia, ngokuqaliswa kancane kancane okuqala ngo-2026. Kumabhrendi athengisa kulezi zimakethe, noma kubaphakeli ezinkampanini ezinezindlu zazo, izinketho zokuhambisa ezenziwe kulo nyaka ziya ngokuya zibonakala ekudalulweni kokuzinza okungabonwa ngamakhasimende, abatshalizimali, kanye nabalawuli.
Ngasohlangothini lwase-US, isithombe sihlukene kakhulu. IWashington ivimbe imali yokukhishwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke ezingeni le-IMO, futhi akukho ntela yekhabhoni kahulumeni ekuthuthweni kolwandle, kodwa i-Environmental Protection Agency kulindeleke ukuthi yethule imithetho emisha yokukhishwa kwempahla olwandle ngo-2026, futhi izifundazwe ngazinye ezifana neCalifornia ziyaqhubeka nokuphoqelela izidingo zazo zokudalulwa kwe-Scope 3 eziqinile. Umphumela uba ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kusuka eShayina kuya e-US kungabhekana nomthwalo wokubika ohlukile kakhulu kuye ngesimo somthengi kanye nemboni, ngisho nalapho izindleko zokuthutha zasolwandle zibukeka zifana kuzo zonke izinkampani ezithwala impahla.
Isifinyezo Somzila Ngomzila
Akuwona wonke umzila wokuthumela impahla eShayina othwala ukuvezwa okufanayo. Inkokhelo eyengeziwe ye-EU ETS, isibonelo, ibalwa ngokwesilinganiso sohambo oluwela emanzini asebenza kwi-EU, ngakho-ke isevisi eyenza ukuvakasha kwayo kokugcina okungeyona eye-EU eduze nogu lwaseYurophu imunca inkokhelo encane kakhulu kuneyodwa edluliselwa endaweni yokuthutha impahla ekude.
| Lane | Ukuvezwa kuka-2026 | Isengezo Esijwayelekile Esihlobene Nohlaza |
| IShayina - INyakatho Yurophu (Shanghai–Rotterdam/Hamburg) | Ububanzi obuphezulu be-ETS obugcwele, i-Cape of Good Hope diversion inezela izinsuku eziyi-10-14 | US$30–US$45 nge-TEU ngayinye ezinyaweni ezinde ezisebenza kwi-EU |
| IShayina - i-UK (ngocingo olufushane lwe-EU lwesitayela sikaFelixstowe) | Ibanga eliphansi - elincane kakhulu elifanele i-EU | US$3–US$10 nge-TEU ngayinye |
| IShayina - US West Coast (Transpacific) | Ukuchayeka okuqondile kwe-EU okuphansi, kodwa izinga lokukhokhisa imali eluhlaza elixhunywe ku-CII liyasebenza | US$150–US$400 ngesitsha ngasinye, kuncike endleleni |
| IShayina - Ugu Olusempumalanga lwase-US (ngokusebenzisa iSuez/Panama noma umzila omusha woLwandle Olubomvu) | Imiphumela yekhwalithi ephezulu kanye nomthamo omaphakathi - oLwandle Olubomvu | Kufakwe kwisilinganiso sesisekelo kanye nokulungiswa kukaphethiloli |
| I-Intra-Asia | Ukugqagqana kokulawula okuphansi - okulinganiselwe | Okuncane kakhulu, okuqhutshwa kakhulu yi-CII |
Abathumeli bamazwe angaphandle baseNyakatho China abathumela nge-Qingdao kunokuba bathuthele eShanghai ngamaloli nabo babona umphumela wesibili wokonga, benciphisa u-$200 kuya ku-$400 ngesitsha ngasinye ezindlekweni zokuphelelwa yisikhathi kwempahla eya eYurophu - imininingwane engahlobene ngqo nenqubomgomo yokukhishwa komoya kodwa ehlanganiswa kakhulu engxoxweni efanayo yokuhambisa ngoba zombili izinqumo zenziwa ngesikhathi esisodwa.
Indlela Abathumeli Abaphatha Ngayo I-Premium
Iningi labathumeli bezimpahla baseShayina abanolwazi abasazami ukugwema izindleko ezihlobene nokulima; lowo mkhumbi, uma singasho kanjalo, usuhambe ngomkhumbi. Esikhundleni salokho, indlela evame kakhulu ngo-2026 ukuphatha ukudalulwa ngamabomu. Lokho kusho ukuqhathanisa ukudalulwa kwezimali ezengeziwe zenkampani yenethiwekhi ngokumelene nentengo yangempela yemakethe ye-EU Allowance kunokwamukela inombolo eqondile, njengoba ukuhlaziywa kuka-2024 yi-Transport & Environment kuthole ukuthi ezinye izinkampani zenethiwekhi zenza inzuzo enkulu ezinkokhelweni ezengeziwe ezidlule izindleko zazo zangempela zokuthobela imithetho. Kusho futhi ukwakha izinto ezihlobene nekhabhoni zibe amamodeli ezindleko ezifike ngaphambi kwesikhathi kunokuba uziphathe njengento emangazayo ngesikhathi se-invoyisi, nokuhlala uguquguqukayo lapho ukulayisha kukhushulwa khona lapho umzila omfushane osebenza kwi-EU unganciphisa imali eyengeziwe ngendlela enenjongo.
Ukusebenza nomshini wokuthumela impahla osuvele usebenza kulo lonke uchungechunge oluphelele - ukuthathwa kwempahla eShayina, ukubhukha izimpahla zasolwandle, ukugcina impahla kwamanye amazwe, kanye nokulethwa kwempahla okuhamba ibanga elide - kunikeza abathumeli amandla amaningi okudonsa kunokubhukha imithwalo ngayinye ngokwehlukana. Ithimba labasunguli beTopway Shipping liletha ulwazi lweminyaka engaphezu kweyishumi nanhlanu kwezokuthutha kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokususwa kwempahla, ngokujula okukhulu kwezokuthutha phakathi kweShayina ne-US, okuwusizo ngoba imizila ye-transpacific ayishintshwa kakhulu yimithetho ye-carbon ye-EU kanye nokuningi ngezitezi ze-green surcharge ezixhunywe yi-CII kanye nomthamo wokushintsha. Ukuba nomlingani oqonda zombili izindawo zomthetho, kunokuba kube ngeyaseYurophu kuphela, kwenza kube lula ukukhetha isu lokuhambisa nokuhlanganisa eligcina i-premium eluhlaza ilingana kunokuba ihlanganiswe.
Inani elincane kodwa elikhulayo labathumeli liqala nokubuza abathwali ngqo ngohlobo lukaphethiloli kanye nobudala bemikhumbi lapho bebhuka impahla esezingeni eliphezulu noma ethinta isikhathi, bebheka ukusebenza kokukhishwa komoya njengesinye isici sesevisi kanye nesikhathi sokuhamba kanye nokuthembeka. Akukabi yisici esinqumayo sokubhukha okuningi, kodwa iqiniso lokuthi kuyabuzwa nhlobo liphawula ushintsho kusuka lapho ingxoxo yayimi khona ngisho naseminyakeni emibili edlule.
Kukhona futhi umkhuba okhulayo wokuhlukanisa imithwalo ngendlela ehlelekile — ukuhambisa ama-SKU athinta isikhathi noma aphezulu ngezinsizakalo ezisheshayo, ezilandela imithetho ephakeme ngenkathi kuhlanganiswa isitokwe esihamba kancane siye ezindleleni ezijwayelekile lapho inkokhelo eluhlaza ingenawo umthelela omkhulu. Lolu hlobo lwesu elixubile lusebenza kahle kuphela uma umuntu othumela impahla enganikeza zombili izinketho emzileni ofanayo wokuhweba, okuyingxenye yesizathu esenza ukuthi imikhiqizo eminingi ephakathi nendawo ihlanganise ubudlelwano bayo bempahla nabalingani abambalwa, abanekhono kunokusabalalisa ukubhukha kuma-ejenti amaningi amancane.
Kuphi Lokhu Okuya Khona: 2027 Nangale
Uhlaka lwe-IMO lwe-Net-Zero, uma lwamukelwa ngemva kokuphothulwa kwezingxoxo zalo ezibambezelekile, kulindeleke ukuthi luqale ukusebenza ngo-2027 futhi luzokwethula indinganiso kaphethiloli yomhlaba wonke kanye nohlobo oluthile lwentengo yokukhishwa kwegesi - isakhiwo se-levy, indlela yokuhweba kanye nokuhweba, noma inhlanganisela yalezi zinto ezimbili, kuye ngokuthi izikhundla zamanje zokuxoxisana zixazulula kanjani. Abahlaziyi be-PwC balinganisele ukuthi ngaphansi kwesimo se-levy yomhlaba wonke, izindleko zikaphethiloli zemikhumbi esasebenza ngokuphelele kuphethiloli osindayo zingakhuphuka ngempumelelo ngo-30% ngo-2030 futhi zicishe ziphindwe kabili ngo-2035, okuzoshintsha kakhulu umnotho phakathi kwemikhumbi evamile neyoluhlaza isikhathi eside ngaphambi kwaphakathi kweminyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Kubalulekile futhi ukuqaphela ukuthi imigwaqo yokuthutha impahla eluhlaza ngokwayo iyanda ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe. Kwakunezinhlelo eziyisithupha kuphela ezisebenzayo zemigwaqo eluhlaza emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023; ngoMashi 2026 lelo nani lase likhule laya kumashumi amabili nesikhombisa, lidlula kakhulu izindlela zokuqala ezazigxile eYurophu. Njengoba iningi lale migwaqo lixhuma ngqo emachwebeni aseShayina, isinqumo sokuhambisa impahla yomthumeli sizoba kancane ngokukhetha phakathi kwenketho eluhlaza kanye neyokuvamile, kodwa sizoba ngaphezulu ngokukhetha ukuthi iyiphi imigwaqo eluhlaza efanelana kahle nezidingo zayo zesikhathi sokuhamba kanye nezindleko.
Ukwakhiwa kwezindawo zokuhlala zaseShayina kuhlelwe ukuthi kuhlangatshezwane nalolo shintsho kunokuba kusabele kukho. Njengoba iShanghai ihlose amandla okugcina i-LNG kanye ne-methanol ahlanganisiwe “aphindwe kabili” ngo-2030, kanye nokubika kokukhishwa kwe-Scope 3 okuba yimpoqo ezinkampanini ezinkulu kulo lonke elaseShayina, eSingapore, eHong Kong, nakwezinye izindawo zesifunda kusukela ngo-2026, indlela okuhanjwa ngayo ayibuzwa ngempela. Ukungaqiniseki okusele kumayelana nesivinini kanye nentengo, hhayi indawo oya kuyo - yingakho kanye abathengisi abaqala ukwakha imikhuba yokuhambisa izinto ngokuqaphela ikhabhoni manje, kunokulinda imithetho ukuthi ixazululwe ngokugcwele, bavame ukugcina benesabelomali sempahla esizinzile lapho isigaba esilandelayo somthetho sifika.
Isiphetho
Imizila yokuthumela eqhubekayo evela eShayina isabiza kakhulu ngo-2026, futhi igebe lingokoqobo kunokuba libe yinto ecatshangelwayo - libonakala ekusakazeni kwentengo kaphethiloli, i-EU ETS surcharges manje isembozweni ophelele ongu-100%, kanye nesitezi se-green-surcharge esakhiweni esisebenza ngisho nangaphandle kweYurophu. Kodwa iprimiyamu ayimi ndawonye. Ukwakhiwa okusheshayo kweShayina kwamandla okugcina i-green-methanol kanye ne-LNG bunker, ukwandisa izivumelwano ze-green corridor, kanye nokuncintisana okukhula phakathi kwezinkampani ezithwala ugesi ngokusebenza kokukhishwa kwegesi konke kusebenza ukunciphisa lelo gebe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngisho noma imithetho emisha efana ne-IMO Net-Zero Framework isongela ukuyikhulisa futhi isuka kolunye uhlangothi. Kwabathumeli, okubalulekile akukona ukukhetha uhlangothi phakathi "koluhlaza" kanye "nokushibhile" kodwa kumayelana nokwakha umzila, ukuhlanganiswa, kanye nezinqumo zezinkampani ezithwala ugesi ezihlala ziguquguquka njengoba isakhiwo sezindleko siqhubeka nokushintsha - into umlingani wezokuthutha onokubonakala kwe-full chain, njenge-Topway Shipping, ebekwe ukusiza ukuphatha kunokumane idlule.
Imibuzo Evame Ukubuzwa
Q: Ingabe izindleko ezengeziwe zokuthumela impahla ngendlela eluhlaza ziyafana kuzo zonke izindlela zokuthumela impahla eShayina?
A: Cha. Ukuchayeka kuncike ekutheni uhambo oluningi kangakanani luwela emanzini alawulwa yi-EU noma ukuthi imikhumbi yenkampani isebenza kanjani ngokumelene ne-Carbon Intensity Indicator, ngakho-ke isevisi yaseShayina-UK enocingo olufushane lwe-EU ingakhokha imali encane kakhulu kunesevisi yaseShayina-North Europe ngesonto elifanayo.
U: Ingabe iprimiyamu eluhlaza izophela ekugcineni?
A: Iningi labahlaziyi lilindele ukuthi kuzoncipha kunokuba kunyamalale, njengoba ukukhiqizwa kukaphethiloli oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka wasekhaya eShayina nakwezinye izindawo kuvala igebe lentengo ngophethiloli ojwayelekile, kodwa intela ephelele yomhlaba wonke ye-IMO ngemuva kuka-2027 ingaphakamisa nezindleko eziyisisekelo zokuthunyelwa okuvamile esikhundleni salokho.
U: Ingabe impahla ye-LCL ikhokhiswa ngendlela efanayo neziqukathi ezigcwele?
A: Cha. Ukuthunyelwa kwe-LCL kuvame ukukhokhiswa i-carbon add-on nge-cubic-meter, okubiza cishe ama-US $5 kuya ku-US $8 ngo-2026 ngempahla ebheke e-EU, futhi lokhu kuthinta kakhulu abathumeli abancane kakhulu kunokubhukha okukhulu kwe-FCL.
Q: Ingabe ukukhetha ichweba elihlukile laseShayina kunganciphisa izindleko ezihlobene nokulima?
A: Ngezinye izikhathi. Ukulayisha kusuka echwebeni elifana neQingdao esikhundleni sokuthutha ngamaloli ukuya eShanghai kunganciphisa izindleko zokuphelelwa yisikhathi, futhi ukukhetha isevisi enomzila omfushane osebenza kwi-EU kunganciphisa ingxenye yenkokhelo eyengeziwe exhunywe yi-ETS.
U: Umthengisi wezimpahla angasiza kanjani ekuphatheni lezi zindleko?
A: Umshayeli wendiza onokubonakala kochungechunge oluphelele, kusukela ekuthuthweni kokuqala kuya ekuthuthweni olwandle, ekususweni kwezimpahla zangaphandle, kanye nokulethwa kwemayela lokugcina, angaqhathanisa izinketho zomzila kanye nokuhlanganiswa kunokudlula enkokhelweni eyengeziwe yomthwali oyedwa njengoba injalo.
