ʻO ka Green Freight: Pehea e lanakila mālie ai ke kaʻaahi ma ke alaloa Kina-Kelemānia
Introduction
Ke nānā nui nei ka nūhou i ka pilikia o ke Kai ʻUlaʻula, ka piʻi ʻana o nā uku ukana moana, a me nā awa pahu piha, ua hoʻololi mālie ʻia ke ala nui o ke kālepa ma Eurasia. ʻO ke ala kaʻaahi Kina-Kelemānia, kahi e holo ana ma mua o 10,000 kilomita ma o nā steppes, nā pae mauna, a me nā palena ʻāina ʻeono, ke lilo nei i koho hilinaʻi, kūpono i ke kumukūʻai, a me ke kaiapuni no ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā waiwai ma ka lewa a me ka wai.
Hōʻike ka ʻikepili i kahi moʻolelo hoihoi maoli. I ka makahiki 2024, ua holo ka China-Europe Railway Express (CR Express) i 19,000 mau kaʻaahi a ua hoʻoneʻe i 2.07 miliona mau ipu, ʻo ia hoʻi he 10% ʻoi aku ma mua o ka makahiki ma mua. I Nowemapa o ia makahiki, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o nā huakaʻi ma mua o 100,000, he moʻolelo no ke kaʻaahi transcontinental. ʻO Kelemānia nō ka wahi kaulana loa ma ʻEulopa, e hana ana ma kahi o 29% o nā kaʻaahi āpau e hōʻea mai ana mai Kina mai. ʻO ke awa kūloko o Duisburg ke kikowaena logistics mua ma waenakonu o ka ʻāina nui.
ʻOiai he nui loa ia, kaʻa kaʻaahi ʻAʻole i loaʻa ka nānā nui ʻia e nā loea logistics maʻamau ma waena o Kina a me Kelemania. ʻAʻohe ona keaka o kahi moku i paʻa i loko o ke kahawai ʻo Suez a i ʻole ka wikiwiki o nā pakuhi ukana ea i ka wā maʻi ahulau. Akā, ke hana nei ia i ka mea a ke kahua hana maikaʻi loa e hana mau ai: lilo i mea pono me ka ʻole o ka hoʻonāukiuki. Ke kamaʻilio nei kēia ʻatikala e pili ana i ke kumu e ola ʻole ai ke ala kaʻaahi Kina-Kelemānia i loko o kahi ʻano multimodal hoʻokūkū, akā lanakila maoli nō hoʻi i ka wā e pili ana i ka hoʻomau, ka hilinaʻi, a me ke koʻikoʻi o ka ʻoihana.
ʻO ke Alanui ma nā Helu: He Mākeke i Hoʻololi ʻia
ʻO ke kumukūʻai o ka mākeke no ka ukana kaʻaahi ma waena o Kina a me ʻEulopa he $16 biliona i ka makahiki 2025. Manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui ʻia i $31.44 biliona ma ka makahiki 2030, me ka nui o ka ulu makahiki he 14.46 pakeneka. ʻAʻole kēia ala he pehu kuhi; ʻo ia ka hopena o nā mana kūkulu hohonu. ʻO kēia mau mea ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻopukapuka kālā Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), ka neʻe ʻana o ka hana ʻana o Kina i uka, nā hoʻoikaika ʻana o ʻEulopa e hoʻololi i nā kaulahao lako mai ka hilinaʻi wale ʻana i ka hoʻouna ʻana, a me nā hopena lōʻihi o nā hoʻopilikia o ke Kai ʻUlaʻula i hoʻomaka i ka hopena o 2023.
He mea hoihoi loa ka piʻi hou ʻana o ka makahiki 2024 no ka mea ʻaʻole ia he like. Ma hope o ʻelua mau makahiki o ka emi nui ʻana, ua piʻi ka huina o nā kaʻa kaʻaahi ma waena o Kina a me ka EU ma 80.2 pakeneka i 380,434 TEU. Ua ʻike ʻia kēlā piʻi ʻana ma ke kuhikuhi ʻana mai Kina a i ʻEulopa, me ka piʻi ʻana o 130.8 pakeneka i 330,704 TEU. ʻO ke ala ʻē aʻe, mai ʻEulopa a i Kina, ua hāʻule maoli i 26.7 pakeneka i 49,730 TEU wale nō, ʻo ia ka pae haʻahaʻa loa mai ka makahiki 2017. ʻO kēia kūlike ʻole he hōʻailona ia o kahi pilikia kūkulu nui: ke piʻi nei nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku o Kina i ka EU ʻoiai ke emi nei nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku o EU i Kina. Ke hana nei kēia no ka mea ʻaʻole kūʻai nui nā mea kūʻai aku Kina a ke loli nei nā ʻano kālepa o ʻEulopa.
ʻOi aku ka paʻakikī o nā helu i ka wā e pili ana iā Kelemania. I ka makahiki 2024, ua hoʻomaka hou ke kālepa ma waena o Kina a me Kelemania e ulu, ʻoiai aia nō ia ma nā pae haʻahaʻa loa i ka mōʻaukala - ma kahi o 23,790 TEU ma o ke alaloa pololei. ʻO kēia ka mea e hoʻolilo ai iā Kelemania i ka lua o ka puka komo ʻEulopa nui loa ma hope o Polani. ʻO Duisburg wale nō i loaʻa ma mua o 6,700 mau huakaʻi kaʻaahi Kina-ʻEulopa mai ka makahiki 2023. I nā manawa kiʻekiʻe, aia a hiki i 70 mau pilina kaʻaahi i ka pule e hoʻopili ana iā ia i nā kūlanakauhale Kina he 20 a ʻoi, e like me Chongqing, Xi'an, Yiwu, a me Wuhan.
| Kāleka | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Huina o nā TEU Kina-EU | ~ 430,000 | 211,000 | 380,434 |
| Kina→ʻEulopa TEUs | - | 143,000 | 330,704 |
| ʻEulopa→Kina TEUs | - | 67,800 | 49,730 |
| Huina o nā Huakaʻi Kaʻaahi | ~ 15,000 | ~ 17,000 | 19,000 |
| Nā Pahu i Lawe ʻia | ~ 1.8M | ~ 1.9M | 2.07M |
| Ka Waiwai o nā Waiwai Makahiki | ~$55B | ~$60B | $ 66.4B |
Nā Kumu: European Rail Alliance (ERA), China State Railway Group, China Customs Authority
ʻO ka Hihia ʻŌmaʻomaʻo: No ke aha e lanakila ai ke kaʻaahi ma ke kūpaʻa
ʻAʻole wale nā pōmaikaʻi o ke kaiapuni o ka ukana kaʻaahi he gimmick marketing; hiki ke ana ʻia, hōʻoia ʻia, a ke lilo nei i mea nui aʻe no nā mea hoʻouna moku ʻEulopa e pono e hahai i nā lula. No kēlā me kēia tonne-kilomita, hoʻokuʻu ka ukana kaʻaahi ma kahi o 1/15 o ka nui o ke kalapona e ke ea ukali hana a me ka 1/7 o ka nui o ka ukana alanui. Hoʻokuʻu nā kaʻaahi ukana ma kahi o 80% ka emi ʻana o ka CO₂ no kēlā me kēia ʻāpana o ka ukana i mālama ʻia ma mua o nā kaʻa ukana nui. No nā ʻoihana e pono e hōʻike i kā lākou hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ke kaulahao lako ma Kelemania, i ʻike ʻia ʻo Nachhaltigkeitsbericht, ʻo ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke kaʻaahi hiki ke ʻano he emi nui ʻana o nā hoʻokuʻu ʻana o Scope 3.
Ke hoʻoikaika nei ka EU i kēia pono ma o ke kulekele. Hāʻawi ʻo Kelemania a me ka ʻAhahui ʻEulopa i nā bonus eco a me nā hoʻomaha ʻauhau i nā ʻoihana e hoʻololi mai ke alanui a i ʻole ka lewa i ke kaʻaahi. Hoʻokele ke awa Kelemania o Hamburg i 200 mau kaʻaahi i ka lā, ma kahi hapa no ka mea kōkua ia i ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻana i ke kaʻa kalaka ma ʻEulopa ʻākau. ʻAʻole wale kēia mau mea hoʻoikaika; he ʻāpana lākou o kahi hoʻolālā hoʻoponopono i hoʻolālā ʻia e noʻonoʻo ana i nā kumukūʻai o ka halihali kaumaha i ka wahie fossil.
Ua haʻalele ke kaʻaahi ukana mua loa ʻo Kina-ʻEulopa me ka ʻole o ke kalapona iā Wuhan no Hamburg lāua ʻo Duisburg ma Kelemania i nā mahina i hala iho nei. ʻO kēia paha ka hanana hōʻailona koʻikoʻi loa. Ua hana pū ʻo Wuhan Asia-ʻEulopa Logistics lāua ʻo DB Cargo Eurasia e hana i ke kaʻaahi. Holo ia ma ka uila ʻōmaʻomaʻo 100% ma nā ʻāpana uila, a ʻo nā hoʻokuʻu ʻana e puka mai ana mai nā ʻāpana uila ʻole e hoʻopau ʻia e nā hana hōʻaiʻē kalapona i hōʻoia ʻia e Gold Standard. E like me ka ʻōlelo a nā mea lawelawe ponoʻī, ʻo ka hopena he kūlike kalapona piha-kahe, ʻo ia ke kūlana no ka ukana kaʻaahi honua hoʻomau. Kākoʻo pololei kēia papahana i nā makemake kalapona pālua o Kina a me nā ʻōlelo hoʻohiki a Kelemania ponoʻī e hōʻemi i nā hoʻokuʻu kalapona, e lilo ia i holomua ʻōmaʻomaʻo bilateral maoli.
Ua hoʻohiki pū ʻo Deutsche Bahn lāua ʻo China Railway e pāpālua i ka nui o ke kaʻaahi ʻōmaʻomaʻo a lākou e neʻe ai ma ka makahiki 2025. E hoʻokō lākou i kēia ma ke kūʻai ʻana i nā kaʻaahi uila a me nā ʻenehana kikohoʻe e hoʻolilo i nā kaʻaahi i holo pono. ʻAʻole kēia he mau ʻōlelo hoʻohiki e hana maikaʻi aʻe; he mau papahana kākoʻo lākou me nā ʻōlelo hoʻohiki e kūkulu i nā ʻoihana.
| Keʻano halihali | Nā Hoʻokuʻu CO₂ Pili | Ka manawa kaʻahele (Kina–Kelemānia) | Kumukūʻai Koho vs. Ea |
| Air Freight | Kahua Kumu (×1) | 3-5 mau lā | - |
| Uku Alanui | ×7 vs Kaʻaahi | ʻAʻole pili (intercontinental) | - |
| Kaa lawe ukana | 1/15 o ka Ea, 1/7 o ke Alanui | 13-20 mau lā | ~1/5 o ka Ea |
| Ke Kuhi Kai | Haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka ea | 30-45 mau lā | makepono |
Nā kumuwaiwai: China Railway Express data operator; VIPU Logistics; Nānā Heinrich Böll Stiftung
ʻO ka hihia kālepa: ka wikiwiki, ke kumukūʻai, a me ka hilinaʻi ma ke kaulike
Ke lilo nei ka ukana kaʻaahi i mea waiwai nui ʻia no ka mea ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki ma mua o ka ukana ea a ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka ukana kai, a ʻoi aku ka hilinaʻi ma mua o kēlā mau koho ʻelua. He 13 a 20 mau lā ka hele ʻana ma ke kaʻaahi mai Kina a i Kelemānia, ma muli o ke ala a me kahi i puka mai ai. He 30 a 45 mau lā ma ke kai a he 3 a 5 mau lā wale nō ma ka lewa. ʻO nā lilo o ke kaʻaahi ma kahi o ka hapalima o nā kumukūʻai o ka ukana ea a i kekahi manawa he 8 a 20 pakeneka ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o nā koho kaʻaahi kai i hui pū ʻia no kekahi mau ʻano waiwai.
Ua lilo kēia kūlana waena i mea pono loa i ka wā i loaʻa ai nā pilikia ma ke kai. I ka wā o ka pilikia o ke Kai ʻUlaʻula i ka hopena o 2023 a me ka hoʻomaka o 2024, ua hāʻule ka nui o nā ipu ma o ke Alanui Suez ma mua o 60% i kona wā kiʻekiʻe loa. Ua hoʻonui kēia i nā kumukūʻai o ka 40 kapuaʻi like (FEU) mai Shanghai a i Rotterdam ma kahi o 78%. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ua mau nā kumukūʻai o ke kaʻaahi. ʻO kēia kūpaʻa—ʻoi aku ma mua o nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa, akā ʻo ka hiki ke wānana—ua hoʻonui i ka nui o nā ukana kaʻaahi Kina-EU ma ke komohana ma mua o ka pālua i ka hapa mua o 2024.
Ua loli nui hoʻi ke ʻano o ka ukana. ʻO ke kaʻaahi ka mea i hoʻoneʻe nui i nā mīkini a me nā mea uila (nā code HS 84 a me 85, nona ka huina o 30% o nā nui), akā i kēia manawa hoʻi e hoʻoneʻe ana i nā lako hale, nā lako kukui, nā kaʻa, a me nā ʻāpana kaʻa, a me ka nui o nā lole, nā lole, a me nā kāmaʻa e ulu ana. I ka makahiki 2024, ua piʻi ka nui o nā ukana o nā kaʻa ma 192% i kēlā me kēia makahiki i 31,304 TEU. Ua ʻike ka ʻāpana lole a me ka lole i ka ulu nui ʻana, me ka ulu ʻana o nā ukana ma 268.4% i 31,108 TEU. Hōʻike kēia ʻano like ʻole e ulu ana ke alaloa a hiki ke lawelawe i nā ʻano mea kūʻai aku a me nā mea ʻoihana, ʻaʻole wale nā waiwai ʻenehana waiwai nui.
Ua wehe nā koho kaʻaahi emi ma mua o ka ukana o ka pahu (LCL) i ke alaloa i nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi a me nā ʻoihana waena (SME) a me nā mea kūʻai aku e-commerce ma waena o nā palena. ʻAʻohe koho waena maikaʻi o kēia mau ʻoihana ma waena o ka ukana ea pipiʻi a me ka ukana kai i hoʻopaneʻe ʻia. Hiki i nā mea hoʻouna ke hoʻolālā me ka maʻalahi no ka mea e haʻalele nā moku i nā kūlanakauhale Kina e like me Chongqing, Chengdu, Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Yiwu, a me Wuhan ma ke ʻano maʻamau, i kekahi manawa i kēlā me kēia lā.
Hoʻolālā Alanui: Nā Ala e Hoʻohui iā Kina a me Kelemānia
ʻEkolu mau ala kaʻaahi kūloko nui ko Kina: ke komohana, ke kikowaena, a me ka hikina. Hoʻopili kēia mau ala i ʻekolu mau ala kaʻaahi palena ʻāina i ʻike ʻia ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, a laila hoʻopili i nā kūlanakauhale kikowaena ʻEulopa. Pono nā mea hoʻouna e ʻike e pili ana i kēia hoʻolālā i hiki iā lākou ke koho i nā ala maikaʻi loa. ʻO kēia no ka mea hiki ke ʻokoʻa loa nā manawa transit, nā kaʻina hana keʻa palena, a me nā ʻano pilikia geopolitical.
ʻO ke alaloa ʻākau, e hele ana ma waena o Rusia a me Belarus, ʻo ia nō ke ala nui loa. Hoʻohui ia i nā wahi e like me Chongqing lāua ʻo Chengdu i Duisburg a me Hamburg ma o Kazakhstan, Rusia, Belarus, a me Polani. ʻO ke ala Yu-Xin-Ou mai Chongqing a i Duisburg he 10,987 kilomita ka lōʻihi a he 14 a 18 mau lā ka lōʻihi. ʻO ia ke alaloa kahiko loa i hoʻokumu ʻia a mālama mau i ka hapa nui o nā tonage komohana. Eia nō naʻe, ua hoʻoulu ka hakakā ʻo Rusia-Ukraine i kekahi mau loli hana a ua kānalua kekahi mau mea hoʻouna ukana mai ka makahiki 2022.
ʻO ke Alanui Halihali Honua Trans-Caspian (TITR), i ʻike ʻia hoʻi ʻo ke Alanui Waena, e hele ana mai Kina a i Kazakhstan, ma luna o ke Kai Caspian ma o ka moku, a laila ma o Azerbaijan, Georgia, a me Turkey a i ʻEulopa. Ke ulu nei kona hiki ke hoʻopukapuka kālā, akā ua huki mai i nā hoʻopukapuka kālā hou aʻe mai Turkey, Azerbaijan, a me Uzbekistan. Ke kūʻai ʻia aku nei ia ma ke ʻano he koho palekana i ke ala ʻākau ma ke ʻano o ka geopolitics. Ua haʻalele ke kaʻaahi ukana mua o Kina-ʻEulopa iā Chongqing no Istanbul i Pepeluali 2024. He ʻanuʻu nui kēia i mua no ke kūpaʻa kālepa o kēia alaloa.
ʻO Duisburg ke awa kū moku nui loa o ʻEulopa ma o ke kaʻaahi a lawelawe ʻo ia ma ke ʻano he wahi hoʻopau nui a me ke kikowaena hāʻawi no nā ukana e hele ana i Kelemania. Ke hōʻea mai nā waiwai, hoʻouna ʻia i Farani, nā ʻāina ʻo Benelux, Scandinavia, a me ʻEulopa Waena ma ke kai, ka moku ukali, a laila ma ke kaʻaahi. ʻO Hamburg, Munich, Nuremberg, a me Leipzig nā kikowaena lua e pili ana i kekahi mau mākeke ʻāina.
| ala hele | Nā Kulanakauhale Kumu | Manawa Kaʻahele | Ke awa komo i loko o ka EU | Kumu Pilikia Mua |
| ʻĀkau (ma o Rusia) | ʻO Chongqing, Xiʻan, Chengdu, Zhengzhou | 14-18 mau lā | Brest-Małaszewicze (Belarus/Polani) | Ka pilikia o ke kaua ma waena o Rusia a me Ukraine |
| Alanui Waena (TITR) | Chongqing, Urumqi | 18-22 mau lā | Ka palena ʻo Turkey / Georgia | Nā palena hiki, ka moku Caspian |
| Hikina (ma o Mongolia/Lūkia) | Nā kūlanakauhale ma ka hikina ʻākau o Kina | 14-16 mau lā | Polani/Belarus | Ua like me ke ʻĀkau |
Nā ʻoiaʻiʻo hana: nā bottlenecks a me nā mea e hana ʻia nei
Aia mau nā wahi paio ma ke alaloa Kina-Kelemānia ʻaʻole hiki ke nānā ʻole ʻia e kahi loiloi pololei. ʻO Khorgos (Kina-Kazakhstan) a me Brest-Małaszewicze (Belarus-Poland) nā wahi ʻelua e pono ai nā kaʻaahi e hoʻololi mai ke kūlana ākea o Rūsia i ke alaloa kūlana ʻEulopa. ʻO kēia nō ka pilikia hana nui loa. ʻO kēia mau lohi e hoʻolilo i nā manawa transit i mea hiki ʻole ke wānana ʻia a ua hōʻike ʻia e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka hiki ke ulu ʻana o ke alaloa ma kahi o 2.4 pakeneka o CAGR.
Ua hoʻopukapuka kālā nui ʻo Kina i nā ʻoihana hana ma ke ʻano he pane. Ua hoʻonui nā luna o ke kaʻaahi i ʻelima mau awa palena koʻikoʻi—ʻo Alashankou, Horgos, Erenhot, Manzhouli, a me Suifenhe—a ua kūkulu i ke awa hou ʻo Tongjiang North Railway. Hiki i kēia mau awa ʻeono ke hoʻokele a hiki i 184 mau hoʻololi kaʻaahi i kēlā me kēia lā, ʻo ia hoʻi he 45% ʻoi aku ma mua o ka hiki iā lākou i ka makahiki 2016. ʻO nā kahua kikohoʻe e like me ka ʻōnaehana 95306 o Kina, e hāʻawi ana i ka nānā ʻana i ka manawa maoli, nā palapala e pili ana i ka blockchain, a me nā leka hoʻomaopopo mālama wānana, ua kōkua pū i ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka manawa holoʻokoʻa e pono ai e hoʻomaʻemaʻe i nā dute.
I ka makahiki 2024, ua hoʻomaka kahi kuʻikahi kaʻaahi UN hou i ke kaʻina hana o ka hoʻolilo ʻana i nā kaʻina hana dute a me nā pepa ma waena o Kina a me Kelemania i mea kūlike. ʻO ke kumu, ʻo ia ka wikiwiki a me ka hana ʻana i nā ukana i ʻoi aku ka wānana ma waena o nā palena. Ke komo mai nei ke kālā Kelemania i Duisburg, Hamburg, a me Bavaria e kūkulu i nā kikowaena hou, hoʻokele pono i nā hana, a hana i kahi no nā kaʻaahi hou aʻe e komo mai ana. Ua ʻōlelo ka Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ma ka makahiki 2030, e pono ana ka pūnaewele Eurasian i USD 38 biliona no ka mālama ʻana i ke ala. Hōʻike kēia he kūpaʻa lōʻihi ke kūkulu ʻana i ke kahua, ʻaʻole he hoʻokomo pōkole.
Pehea e kūpono ai ka hoʻouna ʻana o Topway i loko o kēia alaloa
ʻAʻole lawa ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i kahi tikiki kaʻaahi e hele ai ma o ke alahao kaʻaahi Kina-Kelemānia. No ka ʻike maoli ma waena o nā palena ʻāina, pono i kahi hoa logistics nā mea ʻoi aku ma mua o ke komo ʻana i kahi kahua hoʻopaʻa. Pono lākou e hiki ke lawelawe i ka paʻakikī o ka transit multi-country, nā kūlana ana like ʻole, nā palapala dute e uhi ana i ʻeono a ʻoi aku paha mau mana, a me ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana o ka lawe ʻana i ka mile mua a me ka mile hope.
ʻO Topway Shipping, ka mea i hana i ka ʻoihana mai ka makahiki 2010 a aia ma Shenzhen, ua hoʻomohala i kāna ʻoihana ma kēia pae o ka paʻakikī. ʻOi aku ma mua o 15 mau makahiki o ka ʻike o ka hui hoʻokumu o Topway i ka logistics honua a me ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe dute. Hāʻawi ka hui i nā hoʻonā logistics e-commerce palena holoʻokoʻa e uhi ana i ke kaulahao holoʻokoʻa, mai ka halihali wāwae mua mai kahi hale hana a hale kūʻai paha ma Kina a hiki i ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe dute ma ke kumu a me kahi e hele ai, a hiki i ka hale kūʻai ma waho ma nā kikowaena koʻikoʻi o ʻEulopa, a hiki i ka lawe ʻana i ka mile hope loa i ka mea kūʻai hope loa.
Hāʻawi ʻo Topway i ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā ukana piha (FCL) a me nā ukana emi ma mua o ka ukana (LCL) mai Kina mai i nā awa koʻikoʻi a me nā kikowaena kaʻaahi ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa. He ʻoiaʻiʻo kēia inā ma ke kaʻaahi, ke kai, a i ʻole ka lewa ka hoʻouna ʻana. ʻO ke kumu hoʻohālike lawelawe i hoʻohui ʻia a Topway he hopena kūpono a hoʻokele ʻoihana no nā mea kūʻai aku e-commerce, nā lama palena ʻāina, a me nā mea hana e makemake ana e hoʻohana i ka manawa a me ka mālama kālā o ka ukana kaʻaahi i Kelemania me ka ʻole o ka hoʻoluhi o ka hoʻokele ʻana i kahi hoʻouna honua he nui nā wāwae ma kā lākou iho. Ua ʻike maikaʻi ka hui i ka logistics no ʻEulopa, me kona ʻike nui i ka halihali ma waena o Kina a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻO kēia ka mea e lilo ai ia i hoa hana maʻalahi no nā ʻoihana me nā koi multimodal paʻakikī.
Ke nānā nei i mua: He aha nā makahiki ʻelima e hiki mai ana
ʻO ka nānā ʻana i ka wā lōʻihi no ke ala kaʻaahi Kina-Kelemānia he maikaʻi ka hapa nui, mahalo i nā mea i manaʻo ʻole ʻia e loli. Ma ka makahiki 2030, ua manaʻo ʻia ka ʻoihana ukana kaʻaahi Kina-ʻEulopa e waiwai i USD 31.44 biliona, e piʻi ana ma ka wikiwiki o 14.46 pakeneka i kēlā me kēia makahiki. ʻO ka ukana ipu maʻamau, ʻo ia hoʻi he 72% o ka loaʻa kālā o ke alaloa i kēia manawa, e hoʻomau i ke ʻano ukana koʻikoʻi loa. Eia nō naʻe, ke hoʻonui nei nā ʻāpana niche premium. Ke hiki nei i nā kaʻa i kāohi ʻia e ka mahana ke hiki i nā ukana meaʻai a me nā lāʻau lapaʻau ke hele ma ke kaʻaahi. Ke wikiwiki nei ka hoʻohui ʻana o nā dute kikohoʻe i ka manawa e pono ai e hele i nā palena. ʻO ka hoʻoikaika ʻana no nā locomotive uila e hōʻemi ana i nā hoʻokuʻu ma waena o ka pūnaewele.
ʻO ka ulu ʻana o ke Alanui Waena e ʻoi aku ka paʻa. ʻO ka hoʻolālā a Kina e kau i $60 biliona ma ka ʻōnaehana kaʻaahi o Turkey, me ka laina wikiwiki ma waena o Istanbul a me Ankara, e hōʻike ana ua ʻike ʻo Beijing i ke arc hema ma ke ʻano he mea hoʻohui koʻikoʻi i ke ala ʻākau, ʻaʻole he pani. Hana pū kēia mau alaloa e hāʻawi i nā ʻāina transit e hoʻokipa nei i ka pūnaewele kaʻaahi i nā koho hou aku, ka mana kūkākūkā hou aku, a me ke kākoʻo hou aku.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, aia nā makani kū'ē. Ke lohi nei ke ala hoʻi mai ʻEulopa a i Kina, me ka nui o nā ukana ma ko lākou pae haʻahaʻa loa mai ka makahiki 2017. ʻAʻole nui nā waiwai o ka ukana kaʻaahi hikina e like me nā ukana komohana, kahi e paʻakikī ai ka holo ʻana i nā hana kaulike. Ua pono kekahi mau waiwai e neʻe i ka Middle Corridor i emi iho ka hoʻomohala ʻana a ʻoi aku ke kumukūʻai ma muli o ka paʻa ʻole o ka politika ma Rusia. A ua haʻahaʻa mau ke koi Kina ma ka home, ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻaʻole kaulana nā mea ʻEulopa e hoʻopiha mau i nā kaʻaahi hoʻi.
Akā, he mea hoihoi ka moʻolelo o ka hele ʻana i ke komohana, ʻo ia hoʻi ka moʻolelo o Kina a me Kelemania. E wikiwiki wale ana ka piʻi mālie ʻana o ke kaʻaahi no ka mea ke hoʻokuʻu aku nei ʻo Kina i nā waiwai hou aku, makemake ʻo ʻEulopa i nā ukana wikiwiki hou aku, ke koʻikoʻi nei nā lula hoʻomau, a ke piʻi mau nei ka hoʻopukapuka kālā i nā ʻoihana. Aia nā kaʻaahi i ka manawa. Ke nui nei nā pūnaewele. A ʻo ka nui o nā ukana e neʻe ana ma kēia alaloa—miliona o nā pahu a me nā haneli piliona kālā—e hōʻike ana ua hele ia mai kahi hoʻokolohua a lilo i ʻāpana o ke ʻano.
Panina
Ua piʻi aʻe ka ukana kaʻaahi ma waena o Kina a me Kelemania i ke alapiʻi logistics honua ʻaʻole ma muli o ka mea hou a i ʻole ka hoʻopilikia ʻana, akā ma ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka waiwai e ulu mau ana. Hāʻawi ia i nā mea hoʻouna i kahi manawa transit ʻelua a ʻekolu mau pule pōkole ma mua o ke kai, kahi ʻano kumukūʻai ma kahi o 80% haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka lewa, a me kahi kapuaʻi kalapona e hoʻolilo ai i nā mea kūʻai aku a me nā mea hoʻoponopono ʻEulopa e mālama nei i ka hoʻomau ʻana e nānā. ʻO ka hoʻi hou ʻana mai o 2024, kahi i ʻike ʻia ai ka piʻi ʻana o 80% i ka nui, 19,000 mau kaʻaahi, 2.07 miliona mau pahu, a me ka huina waiwai o nā huahana i ʻoi aku ma mua o USD 450 biliona, ʻaʻole ia he hanana helu maʻamau. Akā, he hōʻailona ia e lilo ana kēia alaloa i ʻāpana mau loa o ke kālepa Eurasia.
ʻO ka hoʻolauna ʻana o ke kaʻaahi ukana mua loa o ka honua me ka ʻole o ke kalapona ma waena o Kina a me ʻEulopa i Hamburg a me Duisburg e hōʻike ana i kahi lele qualitative i ka mea hiki i ke kaʻaahi ke hāʻawi: ʻaʻole wale kahi koho halihali hoʻokūkū, akā he koho ʻōmaʻomaʻo ikaika, e kūlike ana me nā pahuhopu decarbonisation a Kelemania a me nā pahuhopu pālua kalapona a Kina. I ka paʻakikī ʻana o ka EU i ka hōʻike ʻana i nā hoʻokuʻu ʻana mai nā kaulahao mea hoʻolako a me nā kūlana honua no ka piʻi ʻana o ka hoʻomau ʻana o nā ʻoihana, e lilo kēia hoʻohālikelike i mea pono i ka ʻoihana.
No nā loea logistics, nā mea hoʻokuʻu aku, nā mea lawe mai, a me nā ʻoihana e-commerce palena ʻāina e hana ana ma ke axis Kina-Kelemānia, ua maopopo ka leka: ʻaʻole wale ke kaʻaahi he koho ʻē aʻe e noʻonoʻo ai i ka wā e lohi ai ka wai a pipiʻi loa ka ea. He ʻano nui ia me kāna loina hoʻolālā kū hoʻokahi, a ke lanakila mālie nei.
FAQs
Q: Pehea ka lōʻihi o ka lawe ʻana o ka ukana kaʻaahi mai Kina a i Kelemania?
A: ʻO ka manawa o ka transit maʻamau ma waena o 13 a me 20 mau lā, ma muli o kahi e hele mai ai ka pūʻolo a me kahi e hele ai. No ka laʻana, he 16 a 18 mau lā e hele ai mai Chongqing a i Duisburg a he 12 a 14 mau lā e hele ai mai Xi'an a i Małaszewicze (Polani). He ʻokoʻa kēia mai 30-45 mau lā ma ke kai a me 3-5 mau lā ma ka lewa.
Q: Pehea e hoʻohālikelike ʻia ai ke kumukūʻai o ka ukana kaʻaahi me ka lewa a me ke kai?
A: ʻO nā lilo o ke kaʻaahi ma kahi o hoʻokahi hapakolu o nā kumukūʻai ukana ea, no laila ʻo ia ke koho maikaʻi loa no nā ukana e pono ai e hiki koke i laila akā ʻaʻole wikiwiki. Ma keʻano laulā, ʻoi aku ke kumukūʻai o ke kaʻaahi ma mua o ka ukana moana, ʻoiai e liʻiliʻi loa ka ʻokoʻa ke loaʻa nā pilikia ma ke kai, e like me ka wā o ka pilikia moana ʻulaʻula 2024.
Q: He koho ʻōmaʻomaʻo anei ka ukana kaʻaahi mai Kina a i Kelemānia?
A: ʻAe. Hoʻokuʻu ka ukana kaʻaahi ma kahi o 1/15 o ka nui o ka CO₂ e like me ka halihali ea a me 1/7 e like me ka halihali alanui no kēlā me kēia tonne-kilomita. Ua hoʻomaka ʻo Wuhan i ke kaʻaahi ukana ʻole-kalapona mua mai Kina a me ʻEulopa i Hamburg a me Duisburg i ka makahiki 2025. Ua holo ia ma ka uila ʻōmaʻomaʻo a hoʻohana i nā offset kalapona i hōʻoia ʻia.
Q: Hiki i nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi ke hoʻohana i ka ukana kaʻaahi Kina-Kelemānia?
A: ʻAe. Hāʻawi nā kūlanakauhale nui o Kina i nā lawelawe kaʻaahi LCL (ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka ukana pahu). Hiki i kēia i nā ʻoihana liʻiliʻi a me nā ʻoihana waena a me nā hale kūʻai pūnaewele ke hoʻouna i nā pūʻolo liʻiliʻi me ka ʻole o ka hoʻopiha ʻana i kahi pahu holoʻokoʻa. Hāʻawi ʻo Topway Shipping a me nā ʻoihana logistics ʻē aʻe i nā hoʻonā LCL i hoʻohui ʻia e pili ana i ka hoʻomaʻemaʻe dute a me ka lawe ʻana i ka mile hope loa.
Q: He aha nā pilikia nui no ka ukana kaʻaahi Kina-Kelemānia?
ʻO nā pōʻino nui, ʻo ia nā lohi ma nā palena ʻo Khorgos a me Brest-Małaszewicze, nā pilikia geopolitical ma ke ala ʻākau o Rusia-Belarus, a me nā loli papa manawa i kēlā me kēia manawa ma muli o nā hoʻoponopono hou ʻana o ke kahua. ʻO ke Alanui Waena, e hele ana ma waena o Turkey a ke ulu nui nei, he koho ʻāpana ia no nā mea hoʻouna ukana e makemake ana e hoʻololi i kā lākou mau ala.
