Three economic changes that are changing global trade
In late September 2025, the U.S. administration made three big policy changes that shook up the world economy:
- Taxes on wood and furniture brought in from other countries
- Stricter regulations for getting a CDL (Commercial Driver’s License) and Amazon’s new peak season fees
All of these choices have big effects on foreign supply chains, furniture exporters, and online vendors that sell across borders. They could all be signs of a change in the global commercial order after the epidemic.
1. U.S. Tariffs on Wood and Furniture: An Explanation of the New Policies
(1) Information about the tariffs and when they will go into effect
President Trump announced increased tariffs on wood and furniture that comes from other countries on September 29, 2025. The tariffs will start on October 14, 2025, and some rates will go up again on January 1, 2026.
The administration’s “Made in America” program, which aims to encourage manufacturing in the U.S., is behind the move.
(2) Countries that are exempt and trade differences
Not all countries are affected in the same way. The policy does not apply to countries that are part of tariff reduction agreements. For instance:
- In the UK, the highest import tax on wood is 10%.
- European Union and Japan: total duties stay below 15%.
This legislation makes it much harder for exporters in China, Vietnam, and India to compete and puts pressure on prices.
(3) A direct effect on the supply chains for wood and furniture
- Costs are going up: Exporters are likely to see their costs go up by 20% to 50%.
- Changes in the Supply Chain: Some manufacturers may move some of their production to Mexico or Southeast Asia.
- Changes in Prices: Exporters need to look at their U.S. pricing strategies again to keep their profit margins.
2. Stricter CDL Rules: Restrictions on U.S. Truck Licenses
(1) Changes to policies and limits on who can apply
The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) has made it harder for those who don’t live in the U.S. to get a CDL. You can only get one if you have a valid visa, like an H-2A, H-2B, or E-2. People with Employment Authorization Documents (EAD) no longer meet the requirements.
(2) States that are enforcing the suspension
The following states have stopped giving out CDLs to those who don’t live there:
- California, Texas, Oregon, and Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Washington
This is likely to cut the number of truck drivers available across the country by 8% in the following six months.
(3) Rising transportation costs and their effects on logistics
There will be a 15% to 20% rise in transportation prices because there aren’t enough truck drivers, especially during busy shipping times like the holidays. This will have an indirect effect on FBA fulfillment fees, delivery across borders, and the prices of all products in the U.S. market.
3. Amazon Peak Season Fees: Three-Phase Surcharge Plan
(1) A Look at the Fee Structure
The peak season fee for Amazon in 2025–2026 will be in three parts, from October 26, 2025, to January 17, 2026:
| Period | Standard Item Fee | Handling Fee | Large Item Fee | Oversized Item Fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 – Nov 22 | $0.40 | $8.25 | $90 | $485 |
| Nov 23 – Dec 27 | $0.60 | $10.80 | $107 | $540 |
| Dec 28 – Jan 17 | $0.40 | $8.25 | $90 | $485 |
(2) Example of cost: How to Figure Out Seller Profit
This is an example for a U.S. FBA seller at the busiest time of year (Nov. 23–Dec. 27):
- 100 standard packages (2 kg each): 100 × $0.60 = $60
- 10 large packages (30 kg each): 10 × $107 = $1,070
- 1 oversized package (70 kg): 1 × $540 = $540
✅ Total additional cost = $1,670
This means that logistics expenses have gone up by almost 35% compared to the off-season.
(3) Ways for sellers to lower peak costs
- Ship early: Move your inventory before the end of October to avoid extra fees.
- Make the most of your storage: use area fulfillment hubs to cut down on distance expenditures.
- Dynamic pricing: Add some of the extra cost to the final retail price.
4. The effect on global supply chains as a whole
(1) Problems and chances for Chinese exporters
Tariffs are hurting Chinese exporters, especially those who sell wood and furniture. But there are long-term chances to expand exports to Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
(2) Rebalancing of Prices Around the World
The effects of tariffs, a lack of trucks, and Amazon surcharges are likely to add up to:
- Higher costs for goods around the world
- Longer lead times
- Moving supply chain hubs away from North America
5. Business Strategy Solutions
(1) Optimizing prices and the supply chain
- Set up warehouses in other countries to lower your exposure to tariffs.
- Work with countries that are friendly to free trade to lower the cost of imports.
- Use flexible pricing strategies to make up for the fact that logistics costs change.
(2) Digital Transformation and Automating Logistics
Use AI-powered tools like Helium 10 and Jungle Scout to analyze data, improve your inventory, and keep an eye on prices. Connect your ERP systems to automate inventory management and keep an eye on costs in real time.
Conclusion: A Change in Global Trade
The U.S. trade and logistics policies for 2025 are a turning point in world trade. Companies that embrace digital optimization, varied supply chains, and flexible pricing strategies will be better prepared for the next stage of global trade evolution, even though short-term problems are unavoidable.
FAQs
Q: How much will the new U.S. wood and furniture tariffs affect exporters?
A: Costs are likely to increase by 20% to 40%, depending on the type of goods and how far they need to travel.
Q: Will trucking policy changes delay Amazon shipments?
A: Yes, less availability of CDLs will probably make shipments take longer and cost more.
Q: Can sellers avoid Amazon’s peak surcharge?
A: No, but shipping early and fulfilling orders in the same area can help lessen the effect.
Q: How can exporters minimize tariff exposure?
A: Think about moving trade to nations that don’t have tariffs or building local assembly plants.
Q: What industries will be hit hardest?
A: The furniture, building materials, shipping, and e-commerce fulfillment industries.
Q: What’s the long-term outlook for global trade?
A: Expect stronger protectionist regulations, which will push businesses to go digital and expand their supply chains.
External Reference:
Official USTR Trade Policy Announcements：https://ustr.gov/
