ពន្ធកាបូនរបស់សហភាពអឺរ៉ុបរបស់ប្រទេសអ៊ីតាលីឥឡូវនេះកំពុងប៉ះពាល់ដល់ថ្លៃដើមដឹកជញ្ជូនរបស់អ្នកទៅកាន់ប្រទេសចិន
សេចក្តីផ្តើម
If you send things from China to Italy or anyplace else in the European Union, you have probably seen a new charge on your shipping invoices: the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) surcharge. In early 2024, shipping costs went up by only 1%, yet this small change has turned into one of the biggest structural cost changes in international logistics in a long time. It now makes up between 6% and 12% of the overall cost of shipping goods between China and Europe, and it won’t go away.
Italy has a very intriguing role in this story. Italy is one of the EU’s biggest commercial partners with China. It gets a lot of machinery parts, consumer electronics, textiles, and raw materials from China. Because of this, Italian importers are feeling the pain more than most. Italy’s own Industry Minister Adolfo Urso has openly appealed for the EU ETS to be put on hold, saying it has a “perverse effect” on European competitiveness. But the process keeps going anyhow. The EU’s rules and regulations don’t wait for everyone to agree on them.
This article breaks down the EU carbon tax framework in simple terms, showing how it affects the cost of shipping to China, how the numbers actually work, what importers need to do to comply, and how to smartly manage your exposure going into the rest of 2026 and beyond.
Understanding the EU ETS: The Mechanism Behind the Surcharge
The EU Emissions Trading System has been around since 2005. At first, it only included power plants, heavy industry, and airlines. The most important development for global trade was in December 2022, when the European Parliament voted to include maritime transport in the ETS. This was officially approved in May 2023 and went into force on January 1, 2024.
The system works on the idea of cap-and-trade. The EU puts a limit on the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by all sectors that are covered. Shipping companies have to buy European Union Allowances (EUAs), which are basically carbon credits, for every ton of CO₂ they release on trips to EU ports. Every year, the cap gets tighter, which means there are fewer allowances available. This pushes prices up over time. BloombergNEF says that EUA prices could rise from the €65–€90 range anticipated in 2024 and 2025 to €122 per tonne by 2030.
The laws about coverage are quite important for trade between China and Italy. For trips between an EU port and a non-EU port, which is what a China-to-Italy shipment is, 50% of the total voyage emissions are subject to EU ETS. This means that a ship sailing from Shanghai to Genoa is not only responsible for carbon emissions in European waters; it must also give up allowances for half of every tonne of CO₂ released during the entire 11,000-nautical-mile journey. That’s a lot.
The EU set a phase-in plan so that the shipping industry would have time to get used to the changes. But that time of grace is now basically ended. The table below indicates how things have changed:
| ឆ្នាំ | % នៃការគ្របដណ្តប់ | ឧស្ម័នដែលគ្របដណ្តប់ | EUA Price Range (€/ton) |
| 2024 | 40% | CO₂ តែប៉ុណ្ណោះ | € 65– € ៤៩.៩៩ |
| 2025 | 70% | CO₂ តែប៉ុណ្ណោះ | € 60– € ៤៩.៩៩ |
| 2026 | 100% | CO₂, CH₄, N₂O | € 60– € ៤៩.៩៩ |
| ឆ្នាំ ២០១៩ | 100% | CO₂, CH₄, N₂O | រហូតដល់ €122+ |
Table 1: The EU ETS Phase-in Schedule for Shipping by Sea
Going from 70% coverage in 2025 to 100% coverage in 2026 is a big change. It almost doubles the cost of compliance compared to 2024 levels. Hapag-Lloyd, one of the biggest container carriers in the world, said in public that their EU ETS surcharge would go up by about 45% because of this change in the rules. That rise falls squarely on the shoulders of shippers.
How the Carbon Surcharge Appears on Your Invoice — and What It Actually Costs
It’s important to understand in detail how carriers pass on EU ETS charges because the surcharge isn’t a flat rate. It changes dependent on a number of factors, such as the current market price of EUAs (most carriers update this every three months), the energy efficiency rating of the specific vessel, the type of fuel being used, and the route of the voyage.
Carriers usually change their surcharge tables every three months, utilizing a three-month average of EUA spot pricing from indices like the ICE DEU3. For example, EUAs traded at an average price of €76.75 per tonne from August 16 to November 15, 2025. Maersk used this number to figure out its Q1 2026 surcharges. The practical effect for a shipper is that the cost of shipping can go up or down by 20–30% on the ETS line alone, even if base rates stay the same.
The carbon tax for 2026 is $150 to $300 per TEU for a typical route from Shanghai to Rotterdam, depending on the class of vessel. For Italian ports like Genoa or La Spezia, which are a little farther away and typically require transshipment, the numbers are usually at the higher end of that range. LCL (Less-than-Container-Load) shippers aren’t safe either. The cost of per-CBM ETS add-ons for 2026 is expected to be between $5 and $8, rising from $3 to $5 in 2025.
| ផ្លូវ | 2024 ETS Surcharge/TEU | 2025 ETS Surcharge/TEU | 2026 ETS Surcharge/TEU |
| សៀងហៃ → រ៉តធឺរដាម | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ |
| Shanghai → Genoa/La Spezia (Italy) | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ |
| ទីក្រុង Shenzhen → Hamburg | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ |
| ក្វាងចូវ → បាសេឡូណា | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ |
Table 2: Estimated EU ETS Surcharge per TEU from China to European Ports (statistics and predictions for the first quarter of 2026)
Shippers will have to pay a second new price in 2026 on top of the base ETS surcharge: the FuelEU Maritime compliance fee. This rule went into effect in January 2025 and says that carriers must gradually cut the amount of greenhouse gases in their marine fuels. They must start with a 2% reduction from the 2020 baseline and reach 6% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. Because biofuels and other green alternatives are still far more expensive than regular bunkers, carriers are passing some of these costs on as a separate compliance line or include them in the bunker adjustment factor. For shippers bringing goods from China to Italy, the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime together make freight prices go up in a way that budget planning can’t ignore.
The CBAM Layer: What It Means for Your Chinese Suppliers
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a different but related mechanism that works with the EU ETS shipping surcharge. The EU ETS deals with the carbon cost of moving products, while the CBAM deals with the carbon cost of making certain items. Anyone who manages trade between China and Italy needs to know both of these things.
On October 1, 2023, CBAM commenced its transitional phase. This means that importers must now send in quarterly reports on the direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions that come with certain types of imports. Importers must start buying CBAM certificates to cover certified embedded emissions on January 1, 2026, when the full financial responsibility begins. The Italian Customs and Monopoly Agency (Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli) is in charge of this in Italy. Importers must have authorized CBAM declarant status to legally bring in covered items.
| ប្រភេទផលិតផល | ស្ថានភាព | Chinese Exporters Affected |
| ដែក និងដែក | Active (2026 full) | High — major export sector |
| អាលុយមីញ៉ូម | Active (2026 full) | High — EV & consumer goods |
| ស៊ីម៉ងត៍ | Active (2026 full) | កម្រិតមធ្យម |
| ជី | Active (2026 full) | កម្រិតមធ្យម |
| អ៊ីដ្រូសែន | Active (2026 full) | Low currently |
| អគ្គិសនី | Active (2026 full) | ប្រយោលតែប៉ុណ្ណោះ |
| Extended categories (post-2026) | កំពុងពិនិត្យ | TBD — potentially wide |
Table 3: CBAM Product Groups and Their Effects on Chinese Exporters
This is not an abstract strategy for Chinese exporters in the steel, aluminum, and related industries. The EU’s CBAM is meant to level the playing field between Chinese and European manufacturers by making it harder for Chinese companies to make goods with less strict environmental regulations. China has its own national ETS, but it only applies to a smaller area and has lower effective carbon costs. This means that when Chinese steel or aluminum arrives at Italian ports, it will have a carbon cost adjustment that partially cancels out the cost benefit of lower Chinese production standards.
For Italian importers, the downstream effect is a more complicated compliance burden. You now need carbon documentation from your Chinese suppliers, specifically data on their emissions per unit of output. However, many Chinese firms are not currently able to give this information reliably. Using default (higher) emission figures, which the EU gives when there isn’t any verified data, is risky because it means that importers might have to pay more for CBAM certificates than their real embedded emissions would suggest. It’s no longer optional to get your supply chain’s carbon data in order.
Italy’s Political Response and What It Means in Practice
It’s important to note Italy’s stance on the EU ETS because it generates a political climate that shippers sometimes mistake for a sign that the policy might be modified or put off. In early 2026, Adolfo Urso, Italy’s Minister of Industry, publicly asked the EU to stop the ETS completely. He called it “only a tax” that was “condemning European companies from being competitive.” He said that the mechanism was making European chemical and energy-intensive industries less competitive.
These are important political points, and Italy is not the only country that has made them. The Draghi Report on European competitiveness, which came out in late 2024, made the EU competitiveness argument even more heated. This has put a lot of pressure on Brussels to change the pace and form of climate policy. But putting the EU ETS on hold is different from actually doing it. The ETS is part of EU law and is linked to the bloc’s legally binding promises to cut emissions. Even member states that are sympathetic can’t get their imports off the hook on their own.
If you own a business that ships goods between China and Italy, the most important thing to remember is to not base your logistical budget on a political conclusion that might not happen. Plan your budget based on the costs as they are now, and think of any future policy changes as bonuses, not the norm. It’s much more likely that you’ll be taken off guard by the complete costs of complying with the ETS than that you’ll go over budget if little changes are made.
Cost Management Strategies for China-Italy Shippers
Since the EU ETS surcharge is now a permanent part of the freight rate environment, the focus has shifted from whether these expenses exist to how to deal with them smartly. Importers and their logistics partners might use a number of specific tactics.
Renegotiate Supplier Contracts with Carbon Transparency in Mind
The first and most important lever is at the supplier level. If you demand Chinese manufacturers give you verified emissions data for their production processes, you can avoid paying high default values and lower your CBAM certificate costs. This also helps you make smart sourcing selections. Under the CBAM paradigm, suppliers who invest in cleaner production or can show lower embedded carbon will effectively cost you less, even if their ex-works price is slightly higher. This impacts how European importers figure out the total landing cost in ways that typical procurement teams haven’t completely taken into consideration yet.
Evaluate Routing Alternatives Carefully — But Realistically
Some shippers have looked into diverting cargo through non-EU transshipment hubs like Tanger Med in Morocco or Port Said in Egypt to cut down on EU port calls and, as a result, ETS risk. The reasoning is correct: trips between two ports that are not in the EU do not have to pay ETS. However, the savings are usually small relative to the extra time and money spent on handling. Also, EU rules have anti-avoidance clauses, and there is ongoing monitoring of how ships are routed. If the eventual destination is an Italian port, the ETS duty applies to a significant portion of the journey, regardless of any stops along the way.
Lock in Favorable Contract Structures
It’s more important than ever in shipping history to choose between all-in rates and spot-plus-surcharge systems. All-in rates let you know what your costs will be, but they may not let you take advantage of lower EUA prices. Floating surcharge arrangements let you take risks on the downside but protect you on the upside if carbon prices go down. If you have a lot of long-term contracts, it’s worth the legal expense to include unambiguous ETS cost-sharing or capping clauses in carrier contracts. This is especially important for Italian businesses who often import raw materials from China. Both Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have ways to do this, such as offsets for green cargo booking goods.
Budget Conservatively for 2026 and Beyond
When making plans for the year, budget modelers should use cautious estimates of EUA prices between €80 and €100 per tonne and expect a 45–50% rise in total ETS-related surcharges compared to 2025 levels. As a starting point, LCL shippers should expect to pay $5 to $8 per CBM in ETS add-ons. These numbers aren’t the worst-case scenario; they’re what Deutsche Bank and other forecasters think the market will be like right now. The IMO is also working on a global carbon pricing system for shipping that is slated to go into effect in 2027. This would add another layer of cost pressure to international trips that go outside the EU.
| ប្រភេទនៃការដឹកជញ្ជូន | 2025 ETS Add-on | 2026 ETS Add-on |
| FCL (per TEU) | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ |
| LCL (ក្នុងមួយ CBM) | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ | ៤១៨– ៥៧៨ ដុល្លារ |
| % of total freight cost | ~4–6% | 6 - 12% |
Table 4: EU ETS Cost Impact by Shipment Type — China to Europe
How Topway Shipping Helps You Navigate the New Carbon Cost Environment
Topway Shipping, which is based in Shenzhen, China, has been a professional provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics solutions since 2010. They are especially good at shipping between China and Europe and China and the U.S. trade lanes. The founding team has more than 15 years of expertise working directly with international logistics and customs clearance. The company has also been changing its service model to meet the new rules set by EU ETS and CBAM.
Topway Shipping handles all parts of the logistics chain, from getting goods from Chinese factories to ports to storing them in Europe, clearing customs (including helping with CBAM compliance), and delivering them to Italy and other EU destinations. Topway is a good choice for shippers who need to send goods to Italy because they know how to deal with Italian customs and the CBAM declarant requirements set by the Italian Customs and Monopoly Agency. This means that clients have a partner who knows both the Chinese export side and the Italian import side of the compliance equation.
Topway has flexible FCL (Full Container Load) and LCL (Less-than-Container-Load) alternatives for maritime freight from China to key European ports like Genoa, La Spezia, Naples, and Trieste. Topway’s LCL consolidation services give smaller importers who can’t fill a full container access to cost-effective shipping options. The team then works to optimize routing and carrier selection to reduce unnecessary carbon cost exposure.
Having a logistics partner who can explain what each line item means and who keeps an eye on quarterly carrier surcharge updates is a real competitive edge in a market where the freight invoice is getting more complicated with ETS surcharges, FuelEU compliance fees, BAF adjustments, and CBAM certificate requirements all coming together. Topway Shipping’s mission is not only to transport goods quickly, but also to help clients understand the total cost of their supply chains so they can make better decisions about where to buy, how to ship, and how to sign contracts in this new era of global trade where carbon is priced.
សន្និដ្ឋាន
The EU ETS is no longer something to worry about in the future. It is an expense that needs to be managed right now. If you want to send goods from China to Italy or anywhere else in the EU in 2026, you will have to pay a carbon premium on marine freight. This is just as real and inescapable as port handling fees or inland delivery expenses. The phased implementation that started in 2024 is now fully compliant with 100% CO₂ coverage. This year, methane and nitrous oxide were added to the framework, which puts even more pressure on costs.
At the same time, the CBAM is changing the way companies compete at the production level. For European importers, carbon transparency in Chinese supply chains is now a business imperative, not just an ESG nicety. Italy’s political discomfort with the ETS, shown by calls from ministers to put it on hold, is a sign of real economic pain, but it doesn’t affect the commitments businesses have to follow today.
Companies that treat carbon cost as a real factor in supply chain design will do the best in this environment. They will do this by renegotiating supplier terms to include embedded emissions, including realistic ETS cost projections in their financial models, and working with logistics providers who have both operational and regulatory knowledge. The shipping industry has entered the carbon era. The question now is not whether to get involved, but how well.
សំណួរដែលសួរជាញឹកញាប់
Q: Does the EU ETS surcharge apply to all goods shipped from China to Italy?
A: The EU ETS premium is for the whole marine voyage, not just certain commodities. The surcharge applies to any container shipment on a ship that stops at an Italian port, no matter what’s inside. The carrier pays the allowances and then adds the cost to the freight invoice as a line item.
Q: Is CBAM the same as the EU ETS shipping surcharge?
A: No, they are two different systems. The shipping fee for the EU ETS includes the carbon cost of the trip, which is the gasoline burnt at sea. CBAM includes the carbon that goes into making certain products, such as steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, hydrogen, and power. Both can be used for a single shipment from China to Italy that includes covered product categories, but they are computed and paid for separately.
Q: How often do ETS surcharges change on my freight invoices?
A: Most large carriers change their EU ETS surcharges every three months, depending on a rolling average of EUA spot pricing. This means that the carbon cost per TEU or per CBM can change a lot from one quarter to the next. Instead of assuming a flat fee all year, you should take this volatility into account when estimating your landing costs.
Q: Can I avoid EU ETS costs by routing through non-EU ports?
A: Partly, but not often enough to make it worth it. Since the shipment must eventually reach an EU port in Italy, a large part of the trip and the emissions that come with it will always be covered by the EU ETS. The extra time and money spent on handling and transit at non-EU transshipment hubs usually cancel out any savings on carbon prices.
Q: What should I ask my freight forwarder about EU ETS compliance?
A: Ask for a detailed explanation of how ETS surcharges are figured up for your specific routes, what carrier rate you are being given for EUA costs, and if the quotation includes or excludes FuelEU Maritime compliance fees. A logistics partner like Topway Shipping that knows what they’re doing should be able to give you this level of transparency and assist you compare surcharges to published carrier rate sheets.
